能源越來越貴 – 不管我們談的是石油價格，還是它所造成的環境成本。若「原油峰頂」理論為正確(我們在前期曾討論過)，人類必須立刻減少石油能源的使用量、並開始尋找替代能源。而即使我們尚未耗盡地球儲油量之半數以上（亦即過了原油存量之峰點值），我們也必須開始尋找不會造成環境污染、不再產生溫室效應氣體的新興能源。使用石化燃料導致二氧化碳的排放，咸信是造成地球暖化現象的主因，而地球暖化，如你我所知，已嚴重威脅地球所有生物之生存。
Energy is becoming more expensive each day, both in terms of its monetary costs and its environmental costs. If the peak oil theory (discussed last month) is correct, humanity’s need to conserve and find alternative energy sources is urgent. But even if we have not yet passed the point of peak oil, we must nonetheless still look to new sources of non-polluting, non-greenhouse gas emitting forms of energy. Carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels are widely believed to be contributing to global warming, which threatens life on earth as we know it.
以目前情況看來，石化能源將仍是人類主要倚賴的能源，但當油價高到一定程度時，民眾的用油行為、以及對石油的態度與瞭解，就會開始改變，換言之，高油價與高燃料稅將會幫助替代能源之研發。當能源價格增加時，短期內大家的基本反應都是盡量少開車、盡量不開冷(暖)氣、節省用電，但若油價一直居高不下，民眾就會從結構面開始進行生活方式的調整，準備長期抗戰：有人可能會賣車、搬到能源效率較佳的房子、或甚至搬到天氣溫和的地區。但這些做法能節省的能源仍屬有限，我們必須倚賴新興科技提供一勞永逸的解決方案。
For the time being, fossil fuels will likely remain dominant until price increases force changes in behavior, attitudes and understanding. But high prices and / or fuel taxes can help to stimulate the shift to alternative energy. As energy prices increase, people first begin short-term conservation measures. They drive less, use less electricity, and/or turn down the heat or air conditioning. If prices remain high, they begin to make structural lifestyle choices to conserve. Perhaps they sell their car, move to a more energy efficient home, or even move to a more temperate climate. But at some point, conservation through lifestyle changes are exhausted and new technologies must be developed.
居高不下的能源價格因此提供了人類探索新能源、發展商業應用的經濟獎勵，也將成為推動提升現有能源效率的重要力量。這些新技術的應用可能涵蓋能源節約與創新運用、以及新興能源的研發，因此也將帶來各種機會 – 特別是對台灣而言。身為資源有限的小島，台灣在節能方面，實有其競爭優勢；反關幅員遼闊、資源豐富的美國，卻是直到最近才開始瞭解到節能的重要，長久以來，美國人習慣開大型車、居住在偏遠郊區的大房子裏、並且製造驚人垃圾量，也使得美國社會高度倚賴低廉的能源成本維持其正常運作。當高油價成為全球新經濟的常態時，美國人對於節約能源、新興能源的需求也將持續增加。
Persistently high energy prices create an economic incentive for the discovery and commercialization of new energy sources, as well as the more efficient use of current sources. Such technologies may involve energy conservation, the use of energy in new ways, or the discovery of new energy sources all together. Opportunities exist in all of these areas, especially for Taiwan. As a small island nation with limited natural resources, Taiwan has a competitive advantage in thinking about conservation, due to sheer necessity. America, with its wide-open spaces and abundant resources has rarely had to consider conservation until recently. With its huge houses in far flung suburbs, giant cars and tremendous waste, America relies heavily on very cheap energy to function. But with high energy prices a fixture of the new global economy, America’s appetite for conservation and new energy sources will only grow.
以下就讓我們看看拜高油價之賜、全球開始出現的一些新商機吧：
Here is a quick overview of just a few of the new opportunities brought about by high energy prices:
能源節約 – 節能是控制高能源成本最簡單、最省錢、也是最有效的方法。當能源價格低廉時，浪費的情況就很嚴重。高油價讓民眾不得不開始節約能源，一些新技術更能幫助提升節能效益：例如省電燈泡、油電車、創新生產製程等。
Conservation – Conservation is the easiest, cheapest and most effective way to control high energy costs. When energy is cheap, waste is high. Higher prices naturally lead people to conserve, but a number of technologies can aid in the effort, such as energy efficient compact fluorescent light bulbs, hybrid cars, and new production processes.
太陽能 – 據稱日光可提供的能源高達目前全球能源使用量的五千倍！太陽能電池幾乎可裝在任何地方，唯一的問題是價格還是相對昂貴，惟有當價格更有競爭力時，太陽能應用才能普及。
Solar Energy – It is said that sunlight could supply 5000 times the amount of energy that the world currently consumes! Solar voltaic cells can be installed nearly anywhere. The primary problem today is that they are still relatively expensive. Prices must be lowered in order for them to gain widespread acceptance.
風力 – 日漸流行的風力發電是另一種乾淨、高效率的再生能源。但人類若想運用風力產生的電能來趨動運輸工具，則必須因應電動車輛之特殊需求，設計建置全新的交通基礎設施。
Wind Power – Wind power is catching on as an efficient, clean way to increase production of electricity. Using that electricity to power transportation will require an entirely new infrastructure to support electric vehicles.
生質能源 – 生質能源有幾種不同形式。在美國，最被大力提倡的方式是利用玉米製造乙醇(酒精)，但是這對全球糧食價格卻造成災難性的影響：由於政府提供種植玉米的農業補助，使得農家紛紛搶種玉米，造成對其它作物如小麥與稻米的排擠效益，進而導致全球糧食價格節節高漲；另一方面，當許多耕地都用來種植玉米後，原來用以養牧動物的土地則大幅減少，最後造成牛奶、雞蛋和肉類的價格上升。所以我們看到的悲慘現象就是：當美國為了能源而把食物(玉米)「燒掉」時，世界貧窮地區的人民卻因為饑饉掙扎在生死邊緣。
此外乙醇的製造得耗用大量石化燃料，兩相抵扣之後、我們最後得到的乾淨能源量其實並沒那麼高。這也是一個好例子，說明政府立意甚佳的環保政策與努力，卻可能導致完全相反的災難結果。
值得提醒的是，生質能源並不限於玉米，像麻、柳枝稷(switchgrass)、蔗糖都能用來製造乙醇。例如巴西就是利用蔗糖取得乙醇，並且開發出「彈性燃料」(flexible fuels)系統，讓車輛又能喝「汽油」又能喝「乙醇」，提供車主自由選擇適用燃料的機會。
Biomass Energy – There are a number of different forms of biomass energy. In the US, there has been a big push for corn-based ethanol, though this has had disastrous effects on world food prices. Government corn subsidies have led to a rush by farmers to plant more corn. This has caused a corresponding decrease in the amount of land available for other crops, such as wheat and rice, pushing the prices for these foods up around the world. Since more corn is being diverted for ethanol production, less is available for animal feed, ultimately pushing up prices for milk, eggs and meat. This has led to a terrible situation in which the world’s poor starves as the United States literally burns food.
Furthermore, ethanol requires a tremendous amount of fossil fuels to produce. The net energy gain is not terribly high. This is an example of how good government intentions can have disastrous consequences.
However, there are other forms of biomass, including hemp, switchgrass, or sugar. Brazil makes ethanol from sugar and has been able to achieve complete energy independence by developing a "flexible fuels" system. Drivers are able to use whichever fuel meets their needs in cars that have been converted to run on gasoline or ethanol.
海洋能源 – 透過建造水庫利用河川水力進行發電，已是相當古老的發電方式。但今天人們會關切建造水庫對環境與河川生態的破壞，因此新的水力發電技術把腦筋動到海洋的潮汐上面，希望透過控制綿綿不絕的潮汐力量、將之轉換為電力。
Ocean Energy – Hydroelectric energy, from the damming of rivers, has been around for a long time. Today there are concerns about how such dams affect the environment and ecology of the river. A new technology looks to harness the waves and tides of the ocean, using the incessant motion of the water to generate electricity.
熱幫浦- 熱幫浦指的是將熱從一處搬到另一處的機器或裝置。例如在地下四呎深處(約1.2公尺)溫度終年約保持在華式50到55度、比地面溫度相對穩定，這是因為泥土有隔熱效果，而地面溫度會受到日曬和季節影響產生波動。這種地底下的常溫情況，就能透過熱幫浦裝置，在夏天時用以保持屋內涼爽、在冬天時用以提供暖氣。
Heat Pumps - A heat pump is a machine or device that simply moves heat from one location to another. At depths below four feet, underground temperatures are relatively stable compared to the daily and seasonal variations above ground due to the insulating effect of the ground itself. The temperature is a relatively constant 50 to 55 degrees Fahrenheit year-round. This constant temperature can be used to cool a house in summer, or heat it in winter simply by pumping the constant temperature air into the home.
許多研究人員也正在開發更多更新穎的能源方案，例如日本的東京火車站就正在進行一項「發電地板」(power-generating floor)實驗計畫；希望捕捉每天幾萬名通勤乘客行經車站時產生的振動能量、將之轉化成電能！如果這項計畫成功，我們或許能預見未來世界各地的迪斯可舞廳地板都將裝上這種裝置、捕捉年輕人的熱舞勁力來發電！
There are also many more, less conventional ideas under development as well. In Japan’s Tokyo Station for example, a power-generating floor is being experimented with. The floor generates electricity from the vibrational energy of hundreds of thousands of commuters walking over the floor each day! If this approach is successful, one could imagine such floors being installed in discos around the world to generate electricity from the energy of young dancers!
雖然石油時代可能已接近尾聲，卻不表示我們也必須告別便宜能源。因為俗語說得好：「有志者，事竟成」。
While we may be coming to the end of the age of oil, it need not be the end of cheap energy. As the saying goes, “If the mind can conceive it, man can achieve it!”
