锚定:货币政策规则和利率下限

Abstract

摘要

This paper uses a standard New Keynesian model to analyze the effects and implementation of various monetary policy frameworks in the presence of a low natural rate of interest and a lower bound on interest rates. Under a standard inflation-targeting approach, inflation expectations will be anchored at a level below the inflation target, which in turn exacerbates the deleterious effects of the lower bound on the economy. Two key themes emerge from our analysis. First, the central bank can eliminate this problem of a downward bias in inflation expectations by following an average-inflation targeting framework that aims for above-target inflation during periods when policy is unconstrained. Second, dynamic strategies that raise inflation expectations by keeping interest rates “lower for longer” after periods of low inflation can both anchor expectations at the target level and further reduce the effects of the lower bound on the economy.

本文采用标准的新凯恩斯模型，分析了在自然利率较低和利率下限存在的情况下，各种货币政策框架的效果和实施情况。按照标准的通胀目标制，通胀预期将被锚定在低于通胀目标的水平，这反过来又加剧了下限对经济的有害影响。从我们的分析中出现了两个关键主题。首先，央行可以通过遵循平均通胀目标框架，消除通胀预期向下倾斜的问题。在政策不受约束的时期，平均通胀目标框架的目标是高于目标的通胀。其次，通过在低通胀时期过后“更长时间保持低利率”来提高通胀预期的动态策略，既可以将预期固定在目标水平，又可以进一步降低下限对经济的影响。