The 2023 earnings season saw a difference in two tech stocks that grew parallelly since the pandemic. Lightspeed Commerce (TSX:LSPD) stock fell 26% in a week after it reported the fiscal third-quarter earnings, losing its Santa Claus rally from November 2023 to January 2024.
Meanwhile, Shopify (TSX:SHOP) stock didn’t flinch after the earnings. While both stocks rallied during the holiday season, their directions changed post-earnings. Is it that Shopify stock is likely to fall? Or investors are just overreacting to Lightspeed’s earnings. Let’s find out.
Lightspeed Commerce is an omnichannel platform that helps retailers and restaurants manage operations in both online and physical stores. The platform connects retailers to suppliers and buyers, makes payments, takes orders, and manages inventory. The company accelerated its growth in 2021 through several all-share or cash-share acquisitions.
Lightspeed Commerce是一个全渠道平台，帮助零售商和餐馆管理在线和实体店的运营。该平台将零售商与供应商和买家连接起来，进行付款、接受订单和管理库存。该公司在2021年通过几次全股票或现金股票收购加速了增长。
After growing its revenue by 147% to $548 million in 2021, the company put a pause on its acquisition spree. That was the time when the 2022 tech bubble burst. Moreover, short-seller Spruce Point Capital targeted Lightspeed, and the stock lost more than 80% of its value in 2022. Over the last two years, the company has been working on integrating all those acquisitions and generating organic growth.
在2021年收入增长147%至5.48亿美元后，该公司暂停了收购狂潮。那是2022年科技泡沫破灭的时候。此外，卖空者Spruce Point Capital瞄准了Lightspeed，该股在2022年市值下跌了80%以上。在过去的两年里，该公司一直致力于整合所有这些收购并实现有机增长。
That slowed its revenue growth to around 20-30%, lower than the 2019 level of 36%. It expects its revenue for fiscal 2024 (ending March 2024) to grow 23%. While revenue grew, the 2024 losses widened from the 2019 losses. In this high interest rate environment, investors are more focused on profitability rather than future growth.
这使其收入增长放缓至20-30%左右，低于2019年36%的水平。该公司预计其2024财年（截至2024年3月）的收入将增长23%。在收入增长的同时，2024年的亏损比2019年的亏损有所扩大。在这种高利率环境下，投资者更关注盈利能力，而不是未来的增长。
Hence, Lightspeed’s stock continues to hover around its 2019 levels even though its revenue has surged to an estimated $895 million from $57 million in fiscal 2019.
因此，Lightspeed的股票继续徘徊在2019年的水平上，尽管其收入已从2019财年的5700万美元飙升至8.95亿美元。
Lightspeed has recently announced a management reshuffle. One of the biggest management changes is interim chief executive officer (CEO) JP Chauvet stepping down and founder Dax Dasilva returning as interim CEO. Chauvet, during his tenure, focused on transactional revenue and expanding the share of Lightspeed Payments in its gross transaction volume. He succeeded in doubling the average revenue per user (ARPU) to $447 from $215 in fiscal 2021. Dasilva aims to put profitability as a top priority by unlocking operational efficiencies and focusing on its high-margin subscription revenue.
Lightspeed最近宣布进行管理层改组。最大的管理层变动之一是临时首席执行官JP Chauvet卸任，创始人Dax Dasilva重新担任临时首席执行长。Chauvet在任职期间专注于交易收入，并扩大Lightspeed Payments在其总交易量中的份额。他成功地将每用户平均收入（ARPU）从2021财年的215美元翻了一番，达到447美元。达西尔瓦的目标是通过释放运营效率并专注于其高利润订阅收入，将盈利能力作为首要任务。
While Lightspeed stock fell, Shopify stock maintained its Santa Claus rally as the company turned free cash flow positive. Lightspeed gave a glimpse of positive EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) in the December quarter. With management reshuffle and profitability focus, there is a good chance of the stock seeing a stronger rally in 2024 than in 2023. Lightspeed stock is trading at 2.58 times its sales per share compared to Shopify’s 15 times.
Lightspeed股价下跌，Shopify股价保持圣诞老人涨势，公司自由现金流为正。Lightspeed在12月季度看到了正的EBITDA（息税折旧摊销前利润）。随着管理层的改组和盈利能力的关注，该股很有可能在2024年出现比2023年更强的反弹。Lightspeed的股价是其每股销售额的2.58倍，而Shopify的股价是后者的15倍。
However, both ecommerce-related stocks could see a pullback between March and June if recession fears materialize. A recession slows transaction volumes as consumer demand falls. Companies like Shopify and Lightspeed thrive on higher transaction volumes. Hence, they tend to do well in a strong economy.
然而，如果对经济衰退的担忧成真，这两只与电子商务相关的股票都可能在3月至6月间出现回调。随着消费者需求下降，经济衰退减缓了交易量。像Shopify和Lightspeed这样的公司在更高的交易量上蓬勃发展。因此，它们往往在强劲的经济中表现良好。
Lightspeed stock is trading closer to its 52-week low. Given the steadily growing fundamentals, the stock could be a buy-and-hold for the next two to three years. If you purchased the stock at its 2021 high of over $150, you could buy more stocks now and reduce the average cost per share. It could help you recover your loss during the 2024 holiday season.
Lightspeed股价接近52周低点。鉴于基本面稳步增长，该股可能在未来两三年内被买入并持有。如果你在2021年超过150美元的高点购买了这只股票，你现在可以购买更多的股票，并降低每股的平均成本。它可以帮助你在2024年假期期间弥补损失。
All in all, it is a growth stock you could consider buying the dip.
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