Congo’s eastern crisis
刚果的东部危机
Fraying round the edges
情况岌岌可危The fate of Africa’s largest country may hang on the whim of Rwanda
非洲最大国家的命运可能掌握在卢旺达的手中 Nov 24th 2012 | GOMA | from the Economist print editionTHE first act of the rebel army that conquered Goma, a city in eastern Congo, on November 20th was to march up to the border with neighbouring Rwanda, as if for a celebratory inspection. A few hundred fighters with Kalashnikov rifles paraded past the silent guns of the United Nations peacekeepers, who were meant to defend the lakeside city and keep the rebels out. The ill-disciplined Congolese national army had already fled. A spokesman for the rebels, who call themselves M23, said they were going to “greet their friends”. On the Rwandan side of the border a crowd gathered to cheer.
叛军11月20日攻下刚果东部城市戈马后，便马上驶向与卢旺达接壤的边界地区，像是去庆祝性地视察一般。几百架配备卡拉什尼科夫冲锋枪的战斗机飞过安静的联合国维和部队——他们驻扎于此是为保卫那座湖边的城市，防范叛军入侵，纪律涣散的刚果国民军早已狼狈而逃。M23是叛军的自称，其发言人表示，他们正在“迎接朋友”。聚集在边界线另一边的卢旺达人群欢呼不已。
There is now a real risk of a new war breaking out in this troubled, mineral-rich part of central Africa which, from 1998 until 2003, experienced the most lethal conflict since the second world war.
What happens next hinges on the true nature of the relations between Rwanda and M23, a group that was born seven months ago and
draws its name from an attempted peace deal signed on March 23rd, 2009.如今，这一战乱不断、矿产丰富的中非地带有再次陷入战争的危险。自1998年至2003年，这一地区经历了二战回来最为血腥的战乱。
接下来形式如何发展完全取决于卢旺达与M23叛军本质上保持着何种关系。叛军于7个月前形成，
其名字源自一份于2009年3月23日签署的和平协定。M23 lords it over Goma
M23叛军高调聚集戈马市The rebels, thought to number perhaps 1,500 soldiers, say they want to liberate the country from a corrupt regime
in Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, half a continent away to the west. For its part Rwanda vigorously denies that M23 is a proxy that it is using to destabilise its vast neighbour.
刚果民主共和国以金沙萨为首都，其国土向西延伸覆盖了半个中非。叛军约共有约1500人，他们表示要将刚果从一个贪污腐化的政权中解放出。卢旺达方面竭力否认M23叛军是其利益集团，否认鼓动叛军在国土广袤的邻国制造混乱。
Those denials are fast losing any
credibility. The UN Security Council, which condemned the rebels’ capture of Goma, has a dossier from its own investigators detailing Rwanda’s involvement in every aspect of the mutiny, from recruiting soldiers and financing operations to intelligence sharing and direct military support. Rwandan troops were seen by numerous witnesses to be fighting alongside M23 in at least two recent operations.
然而，这些否认很快失去
可靠性。联合国安理会强烈谴责了叛军攻占戈马的行为，目前已握有卢旺达参与叛变的一系列材料，涉及包括招募军人、资金支持到情报共享及直接军事支持的每一个细节。大量目击者也见证了卢旺达军队至少在最近两大军事行动中直接协助M23叛军作战。
The aims of M23, whose Tutsi leaders hail from the same ethnic group as the president of Rwanda, Paul Kagame, remain enigmatic. Its members claim
that promises of jobs and money have been broken by the Congolese authorities. However, as the rebellion has gained ground, it has looked less like an effort to settle local scores and more like a plan to install Rwanda’s friends at the helm of a buffer state in eastern Congo. This could mean calls for North Kivu province to leave Congo, ignoring the wishes of the locals, most of whom have no great desire to be ruled, even indirectly, by Rwanda. Jason Stearns, a leading analyst, calls this the “politics of fait accompli”: international donors and the Congolese government may be forced to ask President Kagame to help solve a crisis they accuse him of creating.
M23叛军的头目是图西人，与保罗?卡加梅总统属同一民族。此次叛变的动机让人捉摸不透。其叛军成员宣称，
叛变是因为刚果当局的统治让他们看不到任何就业或富裕的希望。然而，随着叛乱不断推进，其动因不像是解决国内纠纷，而更像是计划让卢旺达的朋友掌控缓冲状态下的东部刚果。这意味着叛军将把北基伍省从刚果分裂出去，无视当地人的意愿——他们当中的大多数并不想接受卢旺达哪怕是间接的统治。首席分析师杰森?史登斯将这种情况视为“既成事实政治”：国际援助者和刚果政府可能被迫要求卡加梅总统出面解决由其造成的危机。
Waiting for an eruption
等待爆发Goma’s 1m residents live in the shadow of two active volcanoes that have blanketed its ramshackle streets in lava on two recent occasions. It is ringed with refugee camps, the legacy of past conflicts, and encircled by
armed groups that profit by taxing everything from mineral smuggling to charcoal and cheesemaking. Some 60,000 refugees have been scattered from a single camp during the rebels’ advance. Goma’s police have handed in their weapons to M23. A host of militias
guilty of rape, executions and using child soldiers have been used by both sides in the recent fighting.
戈马市的一百万居民生活在两座活火山的阴影之下。最近两次火山爆发致使当地街道淹严重毁坏，急需修理。由于过去冲突不断，该地到处是难民营。戈马市处于被武装分子的包围之中，
他们通过对矿物走私、木炭及奶酪制造等等征税聚敛财务。叛军入侵时，约60000人挤在一个难民营中。戈马当地警察已将武器交给M23叛军。而在最近的战乱中，交战双方的民兵中均有不少人
犯下强奸、滥杀无辜及招募童军的罪行。
The UN, which has 6,700 troops in North Kivu, has once again been humiliated. It could respond by changing the mandate of its peacemakers, who are there to protect civilians rather than fight off rebels. But that seems unlikely: Rwanda now has a non-permanent seat on the same security council that must respond to the fall of Goma. Meanwhile Joseph Kabila, Congo’s president, is holding talks with Mr Kagame in neighbouring Uganda, where government has also been accused of conniving with the rebels of M23.
联合国在北基伍省驻扎了6700个维和部队，但因不作为而再次蒙羞。维和部队可以改变其保护平民而非反抗叛军的维和任务。但这似乎不可能：虽然安理会必须要对戈马沦陷一事作出反应，但是卢旺达是安理会现任非常任理事国之一。同时，刚果总统约瑟夫?卡比拉也正在与邻国乌干达总统会谈，而后者也一直被指责纵容M23叛军。
One way to resolve the crisis might be to indulge Rwanda’s desire for a free hand in eastern Congo. Some Western diplomats, still haunted by their failures during the Rwandan genocide in 1994, may quietly support such a strategy. But that approach was taken nearly four years ago, on March 23rd, and its failure has now become clear. The UN has imposed sanctions on M23’s leaders. Will it at last act on the evidence it has gathered and penalise the rebels’ bosses in Rwanda?
解决危机的一个办法可能是让卢旺达自行处理刚果东部。一些西方国家外交官还未从1994年卢旺达大屠杀的失败阴影中走出来，这次可能会默默支持这一战略。但是这种方法在四年前的3月23日早已尝试，现在其失败显而易见。联合国已对M23的头目进行制裁，它最终会根据已有证据采取行动并惩罚叛军在卢旺达的头目吗？
