中国新一轮财政刺激即将来临？

2012年 05月 15日 09:46

中国新一轮财政刺激即将来临？

北

京正在用打开贷款闸门的办法来应对经济增长的放缓。问题在于企业不想借钱。

贷款增速已经下降。2012年头四个月，发放给企业的新增长期贷款同比萎缩43%。这说明企业认为有利可图的投资机会正在减少。

原因不难明白。一季度整个工业部门的利润同比下降1.3%，某些行业的下降更加明显。宝山钢铁等巨头所在的黑色金属行业利润大降83%，堪比2009年头几个月103%的降幅。

在多年来投资快速增长的驱动下，工业和制造业中很多企业的产能扩张跑在了需求的前头。而现在国内外需求都很疲软，且前景不明。产能闲置、新订单下降、利润萎缩的企业自然都在控制资本支出。

在企业不挑大梁的情况下，政府将不得不通过别的途径来把刺激政策传导出去。加大公共支出是谁都想得到的办法，具体手段既有提高财政支出，可能还有向地方政府融资平台发放更多贷款。

比如国家发展和改革委员会的2012年规划就要求大力投资核能和水资源等。虽然日本福岛核事故引起忧虑，但中国还是计划在2012年增加107亿千瓦时的核电产能，相当于2011年发电量的12%。

中国的水资源问题多年存在，人均水资源跟非洲和中东一些国家差不多。发改委2012年规划包括投资污水处理、改善农业部门灌溉系统，以及推进工业部门提高用水效率。

饱受非议的保障房计划也有可能被赶着鸭子上架。如果政府一心加快建设，那么水泥生产商将会受益。

在多年投资高增长之后加大基础设施投入有利也有弊。如果再次进行大规模的资本支出，那么就会进一步推迟将消费作为增长推动器的必要转型。但如果经济继续下滑，那么在中国政府一系列不怎么样的政策选项中，这也可能是最好的那一个。

2012年 05月 15日 09:46

Going Nuclear On China's Slowdown

Beijing is responding to fading growth by opening the lending flood gates. The problem is, businesses don't want to borrow.

Loan growth is down. The value of new long-term loans to businesses contracted 43% year-over-year in the first four months of 2012. That suggests firms see diminishing opportunities for profitable investment.

It's easy to see why. For the industrial sector as a whole, profits fell 1.3% year-to-year in the first quarter. In some sectors, the fall was more pronounced. In ferrous metals--which includes giants like Baoshan Iron & Steel--profits slumped 83%, comparable to the 103% fall in the first months of 2009.

Years of rapid investment have seen capacity for much of the industrial and manufacturing sector expand ahead of demand. Now demand is weak at home and abroad, and the outlook is uncertain. Firms with idle capacity, falling new orders and shrinking profits are naturally holding back on capital spending.

With business not stepping up to the plate, the government will have to find another means to channel its stimulus. The obvious solution is to ramp up public investment, both through higher fiscal spending and potentially more loans to local government financing vehicles.

The National Development and Reform Commission's plan for 2012 calls for major investment in nuclear power and water, for instance. Despite concerns after Japan's Fukushima disaster, China plans to add 10.7 billion kilowatt hours to its nuclear power capacity in 2012, the equivalent of 12% of 2011 output.

Water is a perennial problem in China, where water resources per capita are equivalent to some African and Middle Eastern countries. The NDRC's plan for 2012 includes investment in sewage treatment, improving irrigation in the agricultural sector, and pushing for more efficient use of water in industry.

The much-maligned social housing programme could be pressed into service too. Cement producers would benefit if the government made a concerted effort to accelerate construction.

After years of breakneck growth in investment, ratcheting up spending on infrastructure has costs as well as benefits. Another capital-spending splurge would further delay the needed transition to consumption as a driver of growth. But if the economy continues to slide, it looks like the best of a bad set of policy options for China's government.

Tom Orlik