2011年01月13日 13:27 PM

油价逼近100美元关口

Hopes for growth push oil to within reach of $100

英国《金融时报》 杰克·福尔奇 , 哈维尔•布拉斯 伦敦报道

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Oil has risen to within reach of $100 a barrel for the first time since the 2008 price spike amid mounting optimism that global economic growth will boost demand.	石油价格自2008年以来首次逼近每桶100美元大关，因为市场对于全球经济增长将推动石油需求的乐观预期日益强烈。
But the sharp rise has also heightened concerns about the impact of soaring commodity prices on the global economy, particularly in emerging countries, as it comes on top of high costs for agricultural commodities and metals.	但油价的大幅上涨，也加剧了以下担忧：担心大宗商品价格飙升对全球经济、特别是新兴国家的冲击，因为农产品和金属价格本已高企。
The oil surge also comes on the back of supply disruptions such as this week’s outage in a pipeline in Alaska and strong investor inflows in commodities.	油价上涨也有供应中断方面的原因，比如本周阿拉斯加一条输油管道供应中断；此外，也是由于投资者大举涌入大宗商品市场。
Traders said there was a growing consensus that the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was comfortable with prices near at $100 a barrel. In the past, Saudi Arabia, the cartel’s de facto leader, had said it would work to keep oil prices at $70-$80.	交易员表示，市场正逐渐形成这种共识：即欧佩克(OPEC)已对每桶将近100美元的油价安之若素。以往，该组织实际上的领袖沙特阿拉伯曾表示，将努力把油价控制在每桶70-80美元。
Brent crude, the global benchmark, hit an intraday high of $98.8 a barrel on Wednesday, the highest since September 2008, when oil prices were in the midst of a collapse from their $147-a-barrel record.	周三，全球基准布伦特原油盘中一度触及每桶98.8美元高点，创下2008年9月以来的最高价——当时，油价正处于自147美元的历史高点暴跌的途中。
“Brent can hit $100 any day now. There’s a lot of upward momentum,” Michael Wittner, at Société Générale, said.	“目前布伦特原油随时可能达到100美元。上行动力强劲，”法国兴业银行(Michael Wittner)的迈克尔•维特纳(Michael Wittner)表示。
The cost of premium quality crude varieties in the physical market, such as Tapis of Indonesia and Bonny Light of Nigeria, surged on Wednesday above $100 a barrel.	现货市场上，各类优质原油品种的价格周三已突破每桶100美元，如印尼的Tapis和尼日利亚的Bonny轻质原油等。
The strength in the rebound in oil consumption last year surprised many, with demand growing at 2.3m barrels a day, the second-highest in three decades. Traders and investors have begun the year in bullish fettle. “The consensus demand forecast for 2011 is creeping up day after day,” a trader said.	去年石油消费反弹之强劲，出乎很多人的意料，市场需求每天增长230万桶，创下30年来的次高水平。新年伊始，交易员和投资者对市场充满乐观。“市场对2011年需求的一致预测每天都在提高，”一位交易员表示。
The International Energy Agency, the western countries’ oil watchdog, forecast that consumption would grow this year by a slower 1.3m b/d, but analysts and traders believe it would be much higher, with some pointing to 1.7-2.0m b/d.	西方国家的石油监管机构国际能源署(IEA)预计，今年石油消费的增长将略有放缓，为每天130万桶，但分析师和交易员认为，实际数字可能要高得多，有人认为将达到170万至200万桶。
But analysts cautioned that Brent could be overbought. While it is flirting with $100, West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, is languishing.	但分析师警告称，布伦特原油可能已处于超买。在它逼近100美元关口的同时，美国基准的西德州中质油价格却在逐步下滑。
On Wednesday, WTI was trading more than $6.50 short of Brent prices at $92.39. The widening gap between the two benchmarks is due to a build-up of inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, the landlocked delivery point for the WTI contract.	周三，西德州中质油价格报收92.39美元，比布伦特价格低6.50美元以上。两个基准原油之间的价差日益扩大，原因是美国俄克拉荷马州库欣的库存正在增加。位于内陆的库欣是西德州中质油期货合约的交割地。
As Cushing has few outlets to evacuate surplus oil, a glut tends to depress the price of WTI relative to other US and international benchmarks.	由于库欣也没有什么容纳多余石油的空间，库存过剩往往压低西德州中质油相对于美国和国际市场基准原油的价格。