标题: [2014.10.25] ]Many winners, a few bad losers 油价下跌的赢家和输家
本帖最后由 fsz 于 2014-10-27 12:48 编辑 原文请猛戳这里》》》Cheaper oil
油价的下跌Many winners, a few bad losers
赢家众多，输家都是恶人A lower price will boost the world economy and harm some unpleasant regimes—but there are risks
价格的下跌将推动世界经济，打击一些不受欢迎的政权——但是，风险犹在。Oct 25th 2014 | From the print edition
THE collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 had many causes. None was as basic as the fall in the price of oil, its main export, by two-thirds in real terms between 1980 and 1986. By the same token, the 14-year rule of Vladimir Putin, heir to what remained, has been bolstered by a threefold rise in the oil price.
1991年的苏联崩溃有很多原因。但是，最根本的原因是油价的下跌：做为其主要出口商品的石油，其实际价格，在1980年－1986年间，下跌了三分之二。同样，普京对继承了苏联崩溃后剩余地区的俄罗斯的14年统治也因为油价的3倍上涨而得到了巩固。
Now the oil price is falling again. Since June, it has dropped from about $115 for a barrel of Brent crude to $85 or so—a reduction of roughly a quarter. If prices settle at today's level, the bill for oil consumers will be about $1 trillion a year lower. That would be a shot in the arm for a stagnating world economy. It would also have big political consequences. For some governments it would be a rare opportunity; for others, a threat.
如今，油价又在下跌之中。自7月份以来，北海布伦特原油的价格下降了大约四分之一，从115美元／桶跌至85美元／每桶附近。如果油价稳定在当前水平，石油消费者的账单，每年将少支出大约1万亿美元。对于停滞不前的世界经济，这会是一个刺激，同时还可能带来重大的政治后果。对于某些政府来说，这会是一个难得的机会；对于另一些政府来说，这会是一个威胁。
The scale of shale
油价下跌的受益者Predicting oil prices is a mug's game (we speak from experience). The fall of the past three months is partly the result of unexpected—and maybe short-lived—developments. Who would have guessed that chaotic, war-torn Libya would somehow be pumping 40% more oil at the end of September than it had just a month earlier? Saudi Arabia's decision to boost output to protect its market share and hurt American shale producers and see off new developments in the Arctic was also a surprise. Perhaps the fall was exaggerated by hedge-fund investors dumping oil they had been holding in the false expectation of rising prices.
从经验来说，预测油价是一件费力不讨好的事情。过去三个月的下跌，部分是局势出乎意料的结果，而这种结果可能只是暂时的。谁能想到处于战乱之中的利比亚会在9月底就比一个月前多投放了40％的石油呢？另一个令人吃惊之处是：沙特为了保护其市场份额，挫伤美国页岩气生产商和打击北极石油开发的新进展，决定提高产量。本次的下跌可能被正在抛售石油的对冲基金投资者夸大了，这些投资者因为错误地预期油价会不断上涨而再过去一段时间内一直持有石油。
Geopolitical shocks can surprise on the upside as well as the down. Saudi Arabia may well decide to resume its self-appointed post as swing producer and cut output to push prices up once more. With war stalking Iraq, Libya still fragile and Nigeria prey to insurgency, supply is vulnerable to chaotic forces.
地缘政治的冲击既能够让油价突然下跌也能够让油价掉头向上。沙特可能会决定恢复其自封的摇摆产油国的地位。同时，该国还有可能削减产量以再次推高油价。鉴于伊拉克战乱频仍，利比亚依旧不稳定，尼日利亚成为叛乱势力的猎物。面对各种乱局，供应是脆弱的。
But many of the causes of lower prices have staying power. The economic malaise weighing down on demand is not about to lift, despite the tonic of cheaper oil. Conservation, spurred by high prices and green regulation,
is more like a ratchet than a piece of elastic. The average new car consumes 25% less petrol per mile than ten years ago. Some observers think the rich world has reached “peak car”, and that motoring is in long-term decline. Even if they are wrong, and lower prices encourage people to drive more, energy-saving ideas will not suddenly be uninvented.
但是，造成油价下跌的许多原因都具有持久性的特点。尽管较低的油价是一付补药，但是，因为经济低迷对需求的拉低作用不会消失。被高油价和绿色监管所逼出来的环保节能，更多的是一种单向行为而非双向行为。新型汽车的每英里平均耗油量比十年前降低25％。有些观察家认为，富国已经到达“油耗峰值”，驾车出行正处于长期减少的趋势之中。即便他们是错误的，同时，较低的油价也鼓励人们更多地驾车。但是，节约能源的设想将不会突然间被放弃。Much of the extra supply is baked in, too. Most oil investment takes years of planning and,
after a certain point, cannot easily be turned off. The fracking revolution is also likely to rage on. Since the start of 2010 the United States, the main winner, has increased its output by more than 3m barrels per day to 8.5m b/d. Shale oil is relatively expensive, because it comes from many small, short-lived wells. Analysts claim that a third of wells lose money below $80 a barrel, so shale-oil production will adjust, helping put a floor under the price. But the floor will sag. Break-even points are falling. In past price squeezes,
oilmen confounded the experts by finding unimagined savings. This time will be no different.
大多数额外供应还未达到峰值。大多数石油投资都需要数年的规划，而且，在达到一定的产量后，是不可能轻易地被关闭的。压裂革命也可能会继续高歌猛进。自2010年年初以来，主要的赢家——美国已经将其日产量提高了300多万桶，达到每天850万桶。由于页岩油大都出自许多小型的、开采周期较短的油井，因此，它价格相对要高一些。分析师指出，如果油价低于80美元／桶，三分之一的液压油井是赔钱的。因此，页岩油的生产会出现调整，这有助于给当前的价格提供一个支撑。但是，这种支撑将会塌陷。盈亏平衡点越来越低。在以前的油价下跌中，石油人总是能够找到出乎意料的节油方式，从而令专家感到错愕。这一次也将是如此。For governments in consuming countries the price fall offers some budgetary breathing-room. Fuel subsidies hog scandalous amounts of money in many developing countries—20% of public spending in Indonesia and 14% in India (including fertiliser and food). Lower prices give governments the opportunity to spend the money more productively or return it to the taxpayers. This week India led the way by announcing an end to diesel subsidies. Others should follow Narendra Modi's lead.
对于石油消费国的政府来说，油价的下跌提供了一定的预算喘息空间。在许多发展中国家，各种燃料补贴可耻地侵占了的大量资金。在印尼，燃料补贴占公共开支的20％；在印度，包括化肥和食品在内燃料补贴占公共开支的14％。较低的价格给政府提供了更有效地使用这部分资金或者是将其反还给纳税人的机会。本周，印度在这方面走在了前面，该国政府已经宣布终止柴油补贴。其他国家应当效法莫迪。
The axis of diesel
油价上涨的邪恶轴心For those governments that have used the windfall revenues from higher prices to run aggressive foreign policies, by contrast, things could get uncomfortable. The most vulnerable are Venezuela, Iran and Russia.
相比之下，对于那些一直在利用高油价带来的
意外之财来执行攻击性外交政策的国家来说，事情可能会变得不那么好受。最脆弱的是委内瑞拉、伊朗和俄罗斯。
The first to crack could be Venezuela, home to the anti-American “Bolivarian revolution”, which the late Hugo Chávez tried to export around his region. Venezuela's budget is based on oil at $120 a barrel. Even before the price fall it was struggling to pay its debts. Foreign-exchange reserves are dwindling, inflation is rampant and Venezuelans are enduring shortages of everyday goods such as flour and toilet paper.
头一个垮掉的可能是委内瑞拉。作为反美的“玻利瓦尔革命”的大本营，已经去世的查韦斯试图向其周边地区输出石油。该国的预算是基于油价120美元／桶制定的。甚至在油价下跌之前，该国就在为支付债务而苦苦挣扎。外汇储备正在减少，通胀肆虐泛滥，委内瑞拉人正在承受面粉和厕纸等日用品的短缺之苦。
Iran is also in a tricky position. It needs oil at about $140 a barrel to balance a profligate budget padded with the extravagant spending schemes of its former president, Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Sanctions designed to curb its nuclear programme make it especially vulnerable. Some claim that Sunni Saudi Arabia is conspiring with America to use the oil price to put pressure on its Shia rival. Whatever the motivation, the falling price is certainly having that effect.
伊朗也处在一种困难的境地。该国需要油价维持在140美元／桶左右来平衡其充塞着前总统内贾德提出的大量额外开支项目的挥霍性预算。用以削弱其核项目的制裁使得该国特别不堪一击。有人认为，逊尼派的沙特正伙同美国，阴谋利用油价拉打击其什叶派对手。不管是何种动机，正在下跌的油价确实具有这种效果。
Compared with these two, Russia can bide its time.
A falling currency means that the rouble value of oil sales has dropped less than its dollar value, cushioning tax revenues and limiting the budget deficit. The Kremlin can draw on money it has saved in reserve funds, though these are smaller than they were a few years ago and it had already budgeted to run them down. Russia can probably cope with today's prices for 18 months to two years, but the money will eventually run out. Mr Putin's military modernisation, which has absorbed 20% of public spending, looks like an extravagance. Sanctions are stifling the economy and making it hard to borrow. Poorer Russians will be less able to afford imported food and consumer goods. If the oil price stays where it is, it will foster discontent.
同上述两个国家相比，俄罗斯能够撑一段时间。汇率的下跌意味着以卢布计价的售油所得的损失小于以美元计价，这就为税收收入提供了缓冲，起到了
控制预算赤字的作用。克利姆林宫可以利用她存在储备基金中的资金，尽管这些储备基金已经比前几年有所缩水，而且早有计划要关闭这些基金。俄罗斯能够应对当前油价的时间可能在18个月到两年之间。但是，钱早晚会有用完的一天。已经占用了20％的公共开支的普京的军事现代化看上去像是一种浪费。制裁对经济的窒息作用正在显现出来，同时它还让让俄罗斯难以筹措到资金。俄罗斯人会因为腰包越来越瘪而买不起进口食品和消费品。倘若油价维持在现在的水平，不满将会随之而来。
Democrats and liberals should welcome the curb the oil price imposes on countries like Iran, Venezuela and Russia. But there is also an increased risk of instability. Iran's relatively outward-looking president, Hassan Rouhani, was elected to improve living standards. If the economy sinks, it could strengthen the hand of his hardline opponents. Similarly, a default in Venezuela could have dire consequences not just for Venezuelans but also for the Caribbean countries that have come to depend on Bolivarian aid. And Mr Putin, deprived of economic legitimacy, could well plunge deeper into the xenophobic nationalism that has fuelled his campaign in Ukraine. Cheaper oil is welcome, but it is not trouble-free.
民主派和自由派都应当对油价之于伊朗、委内瑞拉和俄罗斯等国的削弱作用表示欢迎。但是，还存在着一种业已增加了的不稳定风险。相对来说，伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼是一个向外看的人，他的当选就是为了提高伊朗民众的生活水准。如果经济一蹶不振，就可能会强化强硬派对手的力量。同样，委内瑞拉的违约不仅有可能给委内瑞拉人带来可怕的后果，也有可能给已经习惯于依赖玻利瓦尔革命援助的加勒比海国家带来可怕的后果。至于普京，如果其经济合法性被剥夺，可能会更深地陷入已经给他在乌克兰的运动提供了动力的民族主义狂热。油价的下跌是是受欢迎的，但是，并不是可以高枕无忧的。
From the print edition: Leaders
作者: chyuju1010
时间: 前天 21:121.The scale of shale 文中有出现鲸——即美国，因为页岩气冲击了石油，但根据段落内容，shale可以引申为冲击石油价格的一些因素。可直接翻译为：鲸鱼到底多大？
2..Predicting oil prices is a mug's game.
.从经验来说，预测油价是一件费力不讨好的事情.
可以为：经验上来看，预测油价是一件徒劳的事情。（mug's game 愿意为没有利益之事，可以引申。费力不讨好感觉怪怪的。）
3.Conservation, spurred by high prices and green regulation, is more like a ratchet than a piece of elastic.
conservation不能去环保之意，而是“节约”，从后文节油车也可以推断出来。
由高油价与环保法则引起的节约，更像是一个棘轮，而非松紧带。
4.peak car，为了让读者更好理解，个人觉得可翻译为：驾驶里程峰值。 energy-saving ideas应该是（个人的）能源节约理念，并非“节约能源的设想”。
5.Break-even points are falling. In past price squeezes, oilmen confounded the experts by finding
unimagined savings.
Break-even points为经济学术语，意为盈亏平衡点。price squeeze，也是术语，为压价，或价格挤压。savings应该当成削减成本的节约手段。
盈亏平衡点正在下降。在过去的价格挤压中，石油商总能找到出人意料的节约方式挫败专家。
6.For those governments that have used the windfall revenues from higher prices to run aggressive foreign policies
windfall为意外之财，翻译成额外之财可能体现不出这一点。
对于那些从更高油价中获得横财并利用它支持攻击性外交政策的政府来说。
7.Some claim that Sunni Saudi Arabia is conspiring with America to use the oil price to put pressure on its Shia rival.
claim翻译成认为不太好。最好是“声称”“扬言”。
8A falling currency means that the rouble value of oil sales has dropped less than its dollar value
我尝试为：不断贬值的货币意味着以卢布衡量的石油价值损失少于美元。
9.Iran's relatively outward-looking president, Hassan Rouhani, was elected to improve living standards
我尝试为：对外部世界相对表现温和的伊朗总统哈桑·鲁哈尼，人们当初选举他是期望能够改善生活标准。
作者: guojia222
时间: 前天 22:16大师 我试着翻一下标题为“众多国家享其利，少数获其弊”
a few 是“有些”的意思，翻成“都是”是不是有些过。
bad 我觉得在这不是形容loser，应该是“弊端，劣势“的意思吧。
小的不才，小小拙见，望指教
作者: chyuju1010
时间: 前天 22:56 本帖最后由 chyuju1010 于 2014-10-26 22:57 编辑 译成“都是”是有点愤世嫉俗的感觉（因为美国页岩气开发商也受损）。bad应当是形容loser的，这些国家包括俄罗斯（普大怪）、伊朗（核计划）以及委内瑞拉（查韦斯建立的反美联盟），在西方眼里，这些都不是好东西（不光为专制）。楼主翻译总体意合，不过把重点投到了”恶者“，而不是loser。
作者: fsz
时间: 前天 23:22 本帖最后由 fsz 于 2014-10-27 12:29 编辑 1.恕我鲁钝，shale和鲸鱼有啥关系? 就是页岩气页岩油。
2. Conservation, spurred by high prices and green regulation, is more like a ratchet than a piece of elastic.
conservation。 这一句待思考。
3. peak car 译成 驾驶里程峰值 有何依据？
4. Break-even points 保本点和盈亏平衡点有啥区别？
5.In past price squeezes, oilmen confounded the experts by finding
unimagined savings. 这句不太明白？解释一下。
6. windfall 译成意外之财。点赞。
7. A falling currency means that the rouble value of oil sales has dropped less than its dollar value
汇率的下跌意味着以卢布计价的售油所得的损失少于以美元计价的售油损失？
8. outward-looking 就是向外看或者外向型。
作者: chyuju1010
时间: 昨天 08:081.和whale搞混了，应该为：页岩气有多大？
2.conservation有（对某些供给物）节约的意思。可参阅柯林斯词典第三条。
3.“peak car"是根据几个发达国家的现象提出的理论假设，它原指平均每人驾驶里程达到”高原期“。翻成”汽车峰值“亦可，我是说这种不便于读者理解。
4.专业术语一般比较固定
5 在过去的价格挤压中，石油商为了获利常常挖掘出更多的节约成本办法，而这些办法是令专家难以想象的或不可思议，也就是说超越了专家的智力瓶颈。而一旦成本节约后，他们的盈亏平衡点便下降，能够承受更低的油价。
6.
7 石油合同一般以美元计价.价格下降后，美元收入降低，那么卢布收入就降低，但如果卢布贬值，降低的美元能换回更多的卢布，因为损失就少一点。举例，假设俄罗斯卖2桶石油，现在1美元一桶，1美元等于1卢布，则收入为2美元、2卢布。假设石油跌价，1美元2桶，那么收入为1美元、1卢布，可是如果卢布贬值为1美元2卢布，那么1美元可以换2卢布，这样收入还是2卢布。虽然贬值不可能如此夸张，但可以看出卢布贬值后损失明显小于美元价值。
8.个人偏好。
9.新增一个：Most oil investment takes years of planning and, after a certain point, cannot easily be turned off.
after a certain point,有楼主说的临界点意思。但说：在达不到临界点的情况下，是不可能轻易地被关闭的。可能与原意有出入。
我尝试为：大多数石油投资要历经数年的规划，并且达到一定程度后，放弃就不那么容易了。（因为业已形成的巨大成本）
作者: crazybull
时间: 昨天 09:01 本帖最后由 crazybull 于 2014-10-27 09:04 编辑 和FSZ大师探讨一下，只是我个人的理解：
1）The scale of shale 应当直译为
页岩油气的规模Much of the extra supply is baked in, too. Most oil investment takes years of planning and, after a certain point, cannot easily be turned off. The fracking revolution is also likely to rage on. Since the start of 2010 the United States, the main winner, has increased its output by more than 3m barrels per day to 8.5m b/d. Shale oil is relatively expensive, because it comes from many small, short-lived wells. Analysts claim that a third of wells lose money below $80 a barrel, so shale-oil production will adjust, helping put a floor under the price. But the floor will sag. Break-even points are falling. In past price squeezes, oilmen confounded the experts by finding unimagined savings. This time will be no different.
1）这里的baked in，我的理解是“还在烤炉里，过段时间端出来”。
很多新增产能还在投资建设阶段2）after a certain point 项目进行到一定的阶段
很多新增产能还在投资建设阶段。大多数石油投资都需要数年的规划，项目已经到达一定的阶段，不可能轻易停止该项目。（投资大耗时长。已经投资很多 certain point, 上了贼船，硬着头皮也要把项目投产）
压注技术也将取得突破。自2010年年初以来，主要的赢家——美国已经将其日产量提高了300多万桶，达到每天850万桶。由于页岩油大都出自许多小型的、开采周期较短的油井，因此，它价格相对要高一些。分析师指出，如果油价低于80美元／桶，三分之一的液压油井是赔钱的。因此，页岩油的产量会出现调整，这有助于价格筑底。但是，这个底价将会塌陷。盈亏平衡点越来越低。从前遇到油价下跌，石油人缠着技术专家去寻找那些意想不到的降低成本新技术，这一次也一定能找到。
作者: crazybull
时间: 昨天 09:37A falling currency means that the rouble value of oil sales has dropped less than its dollar value, cushioning tax revenues and limiting the budget deficit.
卢布走软（对美元下跌），以卢布计价的石油销售收入跌幅小于以美元计价，税收收入得以缓冲并限制了预算赤字。
“防止出现预算赤字”不对。本来就有赤字。贬值卢布是为了控制预算赤字在目标内，使赤字不放大。
作者: crazybull
时间: 昨天 09:45 本帖最后由 crazybull 于 2014-10-27 10:03 编辑 is more like a ratchet than a piece of elastic.
齿轮一般是单向运动的，松紧带可以来回往复。节油，对价格的影响是一个方向的---会压低需求导致价格下跌---所以节油是“齿轮”，不是松紧带。
Conservation, spurred by high prices and green regulation, is more like a ratchet than a piece of elastic. The average new car consumes 25% less petrol per mile than ten years ago. Some observers think the rich world has reached “peak car”, and that motoring is in long-term decline. Even if they are wrong, and lower prices encourage people to drive more, energy-saving ideas will not suddenly be uninvented.
高企的油价以及环保要求激励下，节油对油价的影响总体是负面的。新车的平均每英里耗油量已经比10年前下降了25%。一些观察家认为富裕国家已经达到了“油耗极限”（节油技术已经接近极限），检测结果显示长远看耗油量是下降的趋势。即使他们错了，低油价鼓励人们更多的开车，节能概念也不会突然被抛弃。
作者: fsz
时间: 昨天 12:23 本帖最后由 fsz 于 2014-10-27 12:25 编辑 1。The scale of shale 和下一个小标题 The axis of diesel
是面 （scale）与点（axis）的关系。正好对应标题：Many winners （赢家之多） a few bad losers （少数几个输家之恶）。这里你的直译是对的。可以根据全文做适当引申。
2。这部分解释，表示多谢。
3。 In past price squeezes, oilmen confounded the experts by finding unimagined savings. 这句你的理解是错的。可以参看楼上那位老兄的解释。
作者: chyuju1010
时间: 昨天 13:46更多的是一种单向行为而非双向行为 這個翻譯地夠到位！
