By AMANDINE PIZZAGALLI, Technology & Market Analyst, Equipment & Materials – Semiconductor Manufacturing, at Yole Développement (Yole).
作者：Yole Développement (Yole) 半导体制造设备与材料技术与市场分析师 AMANDINE PIZZAGALLI。
The overall semiconductor equipment market is worth several billion dollars. By contrast, the lithography equipment market for the More-than-Moore (MtM) industry is a small niche representing millions of dollars. However, new emerging markets push MtM devices to new levels of complexity, resulting in big investments.
整个半导体设备市场价值数十亿美元。相比之下，超摩尔 (MtM) 行业的光刻设备市场规模很小，价值数百万美元。然而，新兴市场将 MtM 设备推向了新的复杂程度，从而带来了大量投资。
The semiconductor industry has traditionally been dominated by silicon substrates. Although silicon is by far the most dominant substrate with more than 80% of the market [1], alternative non-silicon-based substrates like GaAs, GaN, SiC and InP are gaining momentum within the MtM industry.
半导体行业传统上以硅基板为主。尽管硅是迄今为止最主要的衬底，占据超过 80% 的市场 [1]，但 GaAs、GaN、SiC 和 InP 等替代非硅衬底正在 MtM 行业中获得发展势头。
Indeed, as new applications emerge along with stringent requirements, those semiconductor substrate materials have started to be appealing for those applications where silicon can no longer meet the requirements. Some non-silicon-based substrates have already made serious inroads into the MtM market, such as GaN-on-sapphire technology for LED, GaN-on-silicon/SiC for power, SiC/SiC for power and RF as well as GaAs and InP for RF and photonics (Figure 1).
事实上，随着新应用的出现和严格的要求，这些半导体衬底材料已经开始对硅不再满足要求的应用产生吸引力。一些非硅基衬底已经大举进军 MtM 市场，例如用于 LED 的蓝宝石基 GaN 技术、用于功率的硅基 GaN/SiC、用于功率和 RF 的 SiC/SiC 以及 GaAs 和用于射频和光子学的 InP（图 1）。
All these semiconductor substrate materials, silicon-based devices but also in the III-V compound semiconductor industry, require an epitaxy process step which is one of the first stages in manufacturing electronic and optical components consisting of depositing a mono-crystalline film on a mono-crystalline substrate. This process, which enables an improvement in the quality of the films, drives big opportunities in epitaxy growth equipment systems, such as MOCVD, MBE and CVD. The right epitaxy growth tool technology will strongly depend on the technical performance associated with the applications’ requirements, as well as the cost.
所有这些半导体衬底材料、硅基器件以及 III-V 化合物半导体行业中的器件都需要外延工艺步骤，这是制造电子和光学元件的第一阶段之一，包括在单晶硅上沉积单晶薄膜。 -结晶基质。该工艺可提高薄膜质量，为 MOCVD、MBE 和 CVD 等外延生长设备系统带来巨大机遇。正确的外延生长工具技术在很大程度上取决于与应用要求相关的技术性能以及成本。
Indeed, requirements and epitaxy techniques for non-silicon-based devices – typically III-V compound semiconductor substrates – differ from those used in mainstream silicon-based semiconductor devices.
事实上，非硅基器件（通常是 III-V 族化合物半导体衬底）的要求和外延技术与主流硅基半导体器件中使用的要求和外延技术不同。
From a technical point of view, MOCVD represents the majority of the III-V compound semiconductor epitaxy industry, such as GaAs and GaN- based devices, while high-temperature CVD (HT CVD) is the mainstream deposition technology for silicon-based components, SiC devices and, generally speaking, for high voltage applications (Figure 2). They are in essence similar to the ones used in mainstream semiconductors except the process is established at a high temperature, above 1000°C. As such, they require redesign to reach optimum performance at the optimal cost of ownership.
从技术角度来看，MOCVD代表了III-V族化合物半导体外延行业的大部分，例如GaAs和GaN基器件，而高温CVD（HT CVD）是硅基器件的主流沉积技术， SiC 器件，一般来说，用于高压应用（图 2）。它们本质上与主流半导体中使用的工艺类似，只是工艺是在 1000°C 以上的高温下建立的。因此，它们需要重新设计才能以最佳拥有成本达到最佳性能。
In terms of devices, MOCVD tools are very specific to the compound semiconductor industry, including LEDs, laser diodes and some power components based on SiC or GaN. They have been implemented in large volume manufacturing for LEDs, laser diodes and RF devices since the late nineties. Alternative technologies are already used in some applications or are emerging as potential competitive solutions to MOCVD, such as MBE. MBE, however, remains limited and dedicated to some R&D applications of GaAs or InP-based RF components and no breakthrough technology is expected to significantly alter the industry landscape in the mid-term (Figure 3).
在器件方面，MOCVD 工具非常适合化合物半导体行业，包括 LED、激光二极管和一些基于 SiC 或 GaN 的功率组件。自 20 世纪 90 年代末以来，它们已在 LED、激光二极管和 RF 设备的大批量制造中得到应用。替代技术已在某些应用中使用，或者正在成为 MOCVD 的潜在竞争解决方案，例如 MBE。然而，MBE 仍然有限，并且致力于 GaAs 或 InP 基射频组件的某些研发应用，预计不会有突破性技术在中期显着改变行业格局（图 3）。
In terms of the market, most of the equipment forecasts for More-than-Moore applications are calculated from a base scenario assuming much lower-scale adoption. However, the equipment market for both LEDs and microLEDs are very complex to analyze. Therefore, two scenarios, base and aggressive, have been considered for the market forecast as it is challenging to predict what is going to happen exactly.
就市场而言，大多数超摩尔应用的设备预测都是根据假设采用规模小得多的基本场景计算的。然而，LED 和 microLED 的设备市场分析起来都非常复杂。因此，市场预测考虑了两种情景：基本情景和激进情景，因为准确预测将要发生的情况具有挑战性。
For instance, investment in epitaxy growth equipment for traditional LED devices does not follow wafer demand trends but is impacted by the overcapacity from Chinese LED makers. LED epiwafer/chip supply is now mostly in the hands of Chinese players, at least for low- and mid-power LEDs. The state of the epitaxy growth equipment market is a direct consequence of the Chinese government’s strategy of aggressively subsidizing LED companies at the LED chip level. Either companies receive significant subsidies for acquisition of MOCVD reactors but pull the plug and stop investing in the next few years due to reaching overcapacity, or all the main LED manufacturers in China continue overinvesting in MOCVD reactors.
例如，传统LED器件外延生长设备的投资并不跟随晶圆需求趋势，而是受到中国LED制造商产能过剩的影响。 LED外延片/芯片供应现在主要掌握在中国企业手中，至少对于中低功率LED来说是这样。外延生长设备市场的现状是中国政府在LED芯片层面大力补贴LED企业战略的直接后果。要么公司获得巨额补贴购买MOCVD反应器，但由于产能过剩而在未来几年内停止投资，要么中国所有主要LED制造商继续过度投资MOCVD反应器。
Additionally, in the case of microLEDs, their adoption is fueled by luxury TVs, AR and HUDs, automotive applications and smartwatches in both scenarios. Apple will adopt microLEDs in its higher-end 2021 smartwatch model and thus will generate an additional driver for investment in MOCVD reactors.
此外，就 microLED 而言，这两种场景中的豪华电视、AR 和 HUD、汽车应用和智能手表都推动了它们的采用。苹果将在其 2021 年高端智能手表型号中采用 microLED，从而为 MOCVD 反应器的投资带来额外的推动力。
However, the only difference between the base and aggressive scenarios is the potential entrance of smartphones. In the aggressive scenario, the bulk of microLED volume is driven by smartphones where epi-ready wafers could climb to close to 6.5 million 6-inch wafers per year [1], a scale similar to the existing LED industry in terms of volume. Despite the risk that the additional applications taken into consideration in this scenario might not happen, smartphones could drive up demand for microLEDs resulting in a strong increase in demand for MOCVD reactors. If successful in its initial years, the market would be far from saturated in 2027 and growth could accelerate further beyond that point. But there still is a significant risk that this application does not materialize at all.
然而，基础场景和激进场景之间的唯一区别是智能手机的潜在入口。在积极的情况下，大部分 microLED 产量由智能手机驱动，其中外延就绪晶圆每年可能攀升至接近 650 万片 6 英寸晶圆 [1]，就产量而言，这一规模与现有 LED 行业相似。尽管存在这种情况下考虑的额外应用可能不会发生的风险，但智能手机可能会增加对 microLED 的需求，从而导致对 MOCVD 反应器的需求强劲增长。如果在最初几年取得成功，到 2027 年市场将远未饱和，并且增长可能会进一步加速。但该应用仍然存在根本无法实现的重大风险。
Meanwhile, laser diodes represent an additional fast-growing opportunity as the industry massively adopts edge-emitting lasers and VCSELs in the consumer space. On the contrary, MEMS and power devices make up a small niche proportion of the overall epitaxy growth equipment market as those markets are very well-established. As a consequence, the overall epitaxy equipment market, excluding MBE, is expected to increase from 522 tools in 2019 to more than 1213 tools by 2025 in the base scenario; more than 2000 in the aggressive scenario [1].
与此同时，随着行业在消费领域大规模采用边缘发射激光器和 VCSEL，激光二极管代表了另一个快速增长的机会。相反，MEMS 和功率器件在整个外延生长设备市场中只占很小的份额，因为这些市场已经非常成熟。因此，在基本情景下，不包括 MBE 的整个外延设备市场预计将从 2019 年的 522 种工具增加到 2025 年的超过 1213 种工具；在攻击性场景中超过 2000 [1]。
Corresponding revenue, almost $960M in 2019, will exceed almost $2.9B and $6.2B respectively in the base and aggressive scenarios by 2025 [1]. Revenue will be mainly generated by microLED and power SiC components as well as by laser diodes.
相应的收入在 2019 年接近 9.6 亿美元，到 2025 年，基本情景和激进情景下的收入将分别超过近 $2.9B 和 $6.2B [1]。收入将主要来自 microLED 和功率 SiC 元件以及激光二极管。
Currently, revenue is dominated by the mature LED device market, followed by power components. So far, RF devices do not represent significant volumes and remain a small fraction of the total epitaxy market revenue. Meanwhile, laser diodes and power applications are expected to experience rapid growth with a CAGR in the base and aggressive scenarios of 20% and 36% respectively in the timeframe 2019-2025 [1]. In point of fact, laser diodes represent another rapidly growing opportunity as the industry massively adopts edge-emitting lasers and VCSELs in the consumer space.
目前，营收以成熟的LED器件市场为主，其次是功率器件。到目前为止，射频器件的销量并不大，仅占外延市场总收入的一小部分。与此同时，激光二极管和功率应用预计将经历快速增长，在 2019-2025 年期间，基础场景和激进场景的复合年增长率分别为 20% 和 36% [1]。事实上，随着业界在消费领域大量采用边缘发射激光器和 VCSEL，激光二极管代表了另一个快速增长的机会。
Generally speaking, from a technical point of view, MOCVD is leading the epitaxy growth equipment market, driven by laser diodes, LEDs and RF devices, followed by HT-CVD fueled by silicon-power- based devices and MEMS. An estimated seven MBE tools were shipped in 2018, corresponding to around $25M in revenue [1].
总体而言，从技术角度来看，MOCVD 在激光二极管、LED 和 RF 器件的推动下引领外延生长设备市场，其次是硅功率器件和 MEMS 推动的 HT-CVD。据估计 2018 年出货了 7 个 MBE 工具，相当于约 2500 万美元的收入 [1]。
MOCVD seems to be the best available choice for GaAs-, GaN- and InP-based devices while high-temperature CVD appears to be the best option for SiC- and silicon-based devices (Figure 4). Indeed, due to the slow growth rate in MOCVD, high-temperature CVD will continue to dominate the power and MEMS markets. Nevertheless, MEMS and power will represent a small proportion of the overall epitaxy growth equipment market as these markets are very well-established.
MOCVD 似乎是 GaAs、GaN 和 InP 基器件的最佳选择，而高温 CVD 似乎是 SiC 和硅基器件的最佳选择（图 4）。事实上，由于MOCVD增长速度缓慢，高温CVD将继续主导功率和MEMS市场。尽管如此，MEMS 和电源仅占整个外延生长设备市场的一小部分，因为这些市场已经非常成熟。
Currently, MBE is mostly applied to production of photonic ICs, detectors and PIN diodes. Although the technology imparts strong benefits for the Photonics InP-based applications and 5G operating in a range of 20Ghz, it is difficult to predict its exact impact in the short- and long-term.
目前，MBE主要应用于光子IC、探测器和PIN二极管的生产。尽管该技术为基于 InP 的光子学应用和在 20Ghz 范围内运行的 5G 带来了巨大的好处，但很难预测其短期和长期的确切影响。
In terms of market share, Aixtron, Veeco and AMEC represented almost 60% of the epitaxy growth equipment market in 2018 [1] as shown in Figure 5. Although the competitive landscape is occupied by a variety of equipment vendors, it can be segmented into two different groups due to the specifics of the business models and areas that companies are coming from. On one hand, top-tier semiconductor equipment suppliers like TEL and AMAT, coming from the front-end area, are offering CVD equipment optimized for the epitaxy process. They tend to support mainstream silicon applications while the other category employs specialist equipment vendors, like Aixtron, Nuflare, AMEC and LPE, that have developed their expertise in very specific MOCVD equipment lines where front-end suppliers do not have any products. Those typically serve the compound semiconductor-based market.
从市场份额来看，Aixtron、Veeco和AMEC占据了2018年外延生长设备市场近60%的份额[1]，如图5所示。虽然竞争格局被多种设备厂商占据，但可以细分为由于业务模式和公司所在领域的具体情况，分为两个不同的群体。一方面，来自前端领域的TEL、AMAT等顶级半导体设备供应商正在提供针对外延工艺优化的CVD设备。他们倾向于支持主流硅应用，而另一类则采用专业设备供应商，如 Aixtron、Nuflare、AMEC 和 LPE，这些供应商在非常特定的 MOCVD 设备生产线上开发了自己的专业知识，而前端供应商没有任何产品。这些通常服务于基于化合物半导体的市场。
Aixtron is leading the GaAs market with a strong position in laser diodes as well as GaAs LED-based devices while AMEC is very well-positioned in the LED business. As a matter of fact, Aixtron seems to have developed a different strategy compared to its competitors, aiming at offering an equipment product portfolio for emerging GaAs applications like laser diodes and GaAs LED-based devices. Nevertheless, some emerging competitors, such as AMEC, have so far struggled to breach this monopoly. Between the complex relationships between China and the United States and the intellectual property dispute, Veeco has lost market share in China to AMEC. There is a risk that such disruption will continue due to trade barriers and additional taxes. These challenges might strongly impact Veeco’s share and reduce the competitiveness of Veeco in the Chinese market.
爱思强 (Aixtron) 在激光二极管和基于砷化镓 LED 的器件领域占据强势地位，在砷化镓 (GaAs) 市场处于领先地位，而中微 (AMEC) 在 LED 业务方面也处于领先地位。事实上，与竞争对手相比，爱思强似乎制定了不同的战略，旨在为激光二极管和基于砷化镓LED的设备等新兴砷化镓应用提供设备产品组合。然而，一些新兴竞争对手，例如AMEC，迄今为止一直在努力打破这种垄断。由于中美之间复杂的关系和知识产权纠纷，Veeco在中国的市场份额被AMEC抢走。由于贸易壁垒和额外税收，这种破坏有可能持续下去。这些挑战可能会严重影响 Veeco 的份额并降低 Veeco 在中国市场的竞争力。
It would be difficult to compete with MOCVD giants like Aixtron, AMEC and Veeco, as these players have already made significant advances regarding MOCVD reactor manufacturing and design. To reshape the competitive landscape, new technical features should be offered by epitaxy equipment makers.
很难与 Aixtron、AMEC 和 Veeco 等 MOCVD 巨头竞争，因为这些厂商已经在 MOCVD 反应器制造和设计方面取得了重大进展。为了重塑竞争格局，外延设备制造商应该提供新的技术功能。
About the author 关于作者
Amandine Pizzagalli is a Technology & Market Analyst, Equipment & Materials – Semiconductor Manufacturing, at Yole Développement (Yole). Amandine is part of the development of the Semiconductor & Software division of Yole with the production of reports and custom consulting projects.
Amandine Pizzagalli 是 Yole Développement (Yole) 半导体制造设备与材料部门的技术与市场分析师。 Amandine 是 Yole 半导体和软件部门开发的一部分，负责制作报告和定制咨询项目。
References 参考
1. Extracted from Epitaxy Growth Equipment for More Than Moore Devices Technology and Market Trends report, Yole Développement 2020.
1. 摘自《超摩尔器件外延生长设备技术和市场趋势报告》，Yole Développement 2020。
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