1."When the crisis came, the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models immediately became apparent."
"當危機來臨時 現有的經濟體系和金融模型 嚴重的侷限性會馬上顯露出來。"
2."There is also a strong belief, which I share, that bad or oversimplistic and overconfident economics helped create the crisis."
"社會上還有一種強烈的共識，我在這裡和各位分享 就是錯誤的或是過於簡化和過度自信的經濟 造就了這場危機。"
3.Now, you've probably all heard of similar criticism coming from people who are skeptical of capitalism.
你們或多或少聽過類似的評論 特別是從質疑資本主義者的口中聽到
4.But this is different.
但我剛才所說的是不一樣的
5.This is coming from the heart of finance.
我剛才所說的，是發自金融體系的核心
6.The first quote is from Jean-Claude Trichet when he was governor of the European Central Bank.
第一句話是來自尚．克勞德特里謝 (Jean-Claude Trichet) 當他還是歐洲中央銀行總裁時所說的
7.The second quote is from the head of the U.K. Financial Services Authority.
第二句話是來自 英國金融管理局的局長
8.Are these people implying that we don't understand the economic systems that drive our modern societies?
這些人是在暗示 我們不了解推動現代社會的 經濟制度嗎?
9.It gets worse.
情況越來越糟
10."We spend billions of dollars trying to understand the origins of the universe while we still don't understand the conditions for a stable society, a functioning economy, or peace."
"我們花數十億美元 試著去了解宇宙的起源 但我們仍然不了解 一個穩定的社會、正常運作的經濟或是和平所需要的條件
11.What's happening here? How can this be possible?
到底發生了甚麼事? 怎會這樣呢?
12.Do we really understand more about the fabric of reality than we do about the fabric which emerges from our human interactions?
我們對於現實本質的了解 會比我們對於 人類的互動所交織而成的社會了解的更多嗎?
13.Unfortunately, the answer is yes.
很不幸的，答案是肯定的
14.But there's an intriguing solution which is coming from what is known as the science of complexity.
但是，現在有個耐人尋味的解決方案 從所謂的複雜性科學衍生出來
15.To explain what this means and what this thing is, please let me quickly take a couple of steps back.
為了說明這是什麼東西還有這代表甚麼意思 請容許我先把時間倒回幾步
16.I ended up in physics by accident.
在偶然之下，我選擇了物理這條路
17.It was a random encounter when I was young, and since then, I've often wondered about the amazing success of physics in describing the reality we wake up in every day.
這是在我年輕時的一個巧合 從那時候開始，我就時常在想 關於物理驚人的成就 它描述了我們每天生活的現實世界運作的方式
18.In a nutshell, you can think of physics as follows.
簡單來說，你可以把物理想像成以下這樣子
19.So you take a chunk of reality you want to understand and you translate it into mathematics.
你拿走了一塊你想要了解的現實世界 然後你用數學來詮釋它
20.You encode it into equations.
你將它轉換成方程式
21.Then predictions can be made and tested.
如此，你可以預期結果並且測試它
22.We're actually really lucky that this works, because no one really knows why the thoughts in our heads should actually relate to the fundamental workings of the universe.
我們真的很幸運這樣的方式是可行的 因為沒有人真正了解我們腦中的想法 實際上和宇宙運行的基本法則是有關聯的
23.Despite the success, physics has its limits.
儘管有如此的成就物理仍然有它的侷限性
24.As Dirk Helbing pointed out in the last quote, we don't really understand the complexity that relates to us, that surrounds us.
如同德克．海爾賓在剛剛最後一段引言所指出的(Dirk Helbing瑞士一名物理學和社會學家) 我們並不是真的了解 和我們有關並且環繞著在我們的複雜性
25.This paradox is what got me interested in complex systems.
這個悖論讓我對於這樣複雜系統產生了興趣
26.So these are systems which are made up of many interconnected or interacting parts: swarms of birds or fish, ant colonies, ecosystems, brains, financial markets.
以下這些系統 是由許多部分相互關聯和相互作用所引起的 一整群的鳥或是魚、螞蟻的地盤 生態系統、腦、金融市場
27.These are just a few examples.
這些其中只是一小部分的例子
28.Interestingly, complex systems are very hard to map into mathematical equations, so the usual physics approach doesn't really work here.
很有趣的是，要將複雜系統 用數學方程式描繪出來是非常困難的 所以慣用的物理方法在這裡無用武之地
29.So what do we know about complex systems?
我們對於複雜系統所知多少?
30.Well, it turns out that what looks like complex behavior from the outside is actually the result of a few simple rules of interaction.
實際上，我們在複雜行為的外表所看到的 其實就是它那少數且簡單的規則 互動的結果
31.This means you can forget about the equations and just start to understand the system by looking at the interactions, so you can actually forget about the equations
這代表你可以忘掉那些方程式 然後從觀察它的互動行為 開始了解這系統 所以你真的可以不用再管那些方程式了
32.and you just start to look at the interactions.
你只要開始觀察那些互動行為
33.And it gets even better, because most complex systems have this amazing property called emergence.
而這讓一切變得更順利因為絕大多數的複雜系統 都有一個了不起的特性，叫做突現性 (Emergence)
34.So this means that the system as a whole suddenly starts to show a behavior which cannot be understood or predicted by looking at the components of the system.
這代表的是一整個系統 會突然地展現出一種現象 而這個現象是無法被了解或預測的 如果你只注意這整個系統的一小部分的話
35.So the whole is literally more than the sum of its parts.
所以系統的整體，實際上比它所有部分的總合還要多
36.And all of this also means that you can forget about the individual parts of the system, how complex they are.
而這也意味著，你可以不管系統那些個別的部分 還有它們的複雜性
37.So if it's a cell or a termite or a bird, you just focus on the rules of interaction.
假設這個系統是個細胞、是白蟻或是一隻鳥 你只要專注在它們互動的規則上
38.As a result, networks are ideal representations of complex systems.
結論就是，網絡是代表複雜系統 最理想的代表詞
39.The nodes in the network are the system's components and the links are given by the interactions.
每個網絡的節點 就像是系統的零件一樣 而互動就是結點之間的連接線
40.So what equations are for physics, complex networks are for the study of complex systems.
方程式之於物理學 就像複雜網絡之於複雜系統一樣
41.This approach has been very successfully applied to many complex systems in physics, biology, computer science, the social sciences,
這個方法已經被成功的應用在 許多的複雜系統，像是物理學、生物學 資訊工程學、社會科學
42.but what about economics?
但經濟學呢?
43.Where are economic networks?
經濟學的網絡在哪?
44.This is a surprising and prominent gap in the literature.
在相關文獻中，這是一個驚人且顯而易見的鴻溝
45.The study we published last year called "The Network of Global Corporate Control"
我們在去年發表的一篇研究 叫做 "全球企業控制權的網絡"
46.was the first extensive analysis of economic networks.
是第一個大規模分析經濟網絡的研究
47.The study went viral on the Internet and it attracted a lot of attention from the international media.
這個研究在網路上像病毒般的傳播出去 並吸引了非常多國際媒體的目光
48.This is quite remarkable, because, again, why did no one look at this before?
這是很值得關注的，因為再一次地 為什麼之前從來沒有人關注過這件事?
49.Similar data has been around for quite some time.
類似的資料在很久以前就唾手可得了
50.What we looked at in detail was ownership networks.
我們研究的是，所有權網絡的詳細訊息
51.So here the nodes are companies, people, governments, foundations, etc.
在這圖上，結點代表公司行號、人、政府機關 基金會等等
52.And the links represent the shareholding relations, so Shareholder A has x percent of the shares in Company B.
而連接線代表的是股權關係 如此來看，股東 A 擁有公司 B 百分之 X 的股份
53.And we also assign a value to the company given by the operating revenue.
同時我們也將公司的價值標註在上面 基於公司營業收入來訂定的
54.So ownership networks reveal the patterns of shareholding relations.
所以，所有權網絡展現出一種 股東關係的模式
55.In this little example, you can see a few financial institutions with some of the many links highlighted.
在這個小小的範例中，你們可以看到 少量的金融機構 和很多被凸顯出來的連接線
56.Now you may think that no one's looked at this before because ownership networks are really, really boring to study.
現在你可能想，以前從來沒有人看過這個 因為所有權網絡 研究起來非常非常無聊
57.Well, as ownership is related to control, as I shall explain later, looking at ownership networks actually can give you answers to questions like,
好吧，當所有權和控制權做出關聯後 這我在稍後會做出解釋 仔細看所有權網絡 實際上這可以讓以下這類問題的答案呼之欲出
58.who are the key players?
誰是這裏面的關鍵成員?
59.How are they organized? Are they isolated?
它們是如何組織起來的? 它們是各自獨立的嗎?
60.Are they interconnected?
它們是互相連接的嗎?
61.And what is the overall distribution of control?
還有，整體的控制權分配是如何?
62.In other words, who controls the world?
換句話說，誰掌控了世界?
63.I think this is an interesting question.
我認為這是一個很有趣的問題
64.And it has implications for systemic risk.
並且涉及到系統性的風險
65.This is a measure of how vulnerable a system is overall.
這是展示一個系統在整體脆弱程度的衡量方式
66.A high degree of interconnectivity can be bad for stability, because then the stress can spread through the system like an epidemic.
一個高度的互連接性 可能對穩定性有不良影響 因為壓力會透過系統蔓延出去 如同瘟疫一般
67.Scientists have sometimes criticized economists who believe ideas and concepts are more important than empirical data, because a foundational guideline in science is:
科學家有時會批評經濟學家 因為經濟學家相信，概念和學說 比實證數據還要來得重要 因為在科學中的一個基準法則，就是
68.Let the data speak. Okay. Let's do that.
讓數據說話。沒問題，讓我們試試看吧
69.So we started with a database containing 13 million ownership relations from 2007.
所以我們開始建立一個資料庫，含蓋 自 2007 年以來，一千三百萬個所有權關係
70.This is a lot of data, and because we wanted to find out who rules the world, we decided to focus on transnational corporations, or TNCs for short.
這是非常多筆的資料，而因為我們想要找尋出 誰統治這個世界 我們決定專注在跨國企業上 簡寫就是TNC
71.These are companies that operate in more than one country, and we found 43,000.
這些企業運營的範圍多於一個國家 然後我們找出了四萬三千個這樣的企業
72.In the next step, we built the network around these companies, so we took all the TNCs' shareholders, and the shareholders' shareholders, etc.,
下一步，我們勾勒出這些企業的網絡圖 所以我們找出了所以TNC的股東 以及股東的股東等等
73.all the way upstream, and we did the same downstream, and ended up with a network containing 600,000 nodes and one million links.
追朔到最上游，同時也循著下游追蹤 最後的結果是一個包含六十萬個節點的網絡圖 還有一百萬個連結線
74.This is the TNC network which we analyzed.
這是我們所分析出的TNC網絡
75.And it turns out to be structured as follows.
而這引領出的結構如下
76.So you have a periphery and a center which contains about 75 percent of all the players, and in the center there's this tiny but dominant core
你們看到這裡有個外圍區和一個中央區 在這範圍包含了百分之七十五的成員 而在這個中央區裡面，有個微小但是擁有主導權的核心
77.which is made up of highly interconnected companies.
這核心是由高度內部連接的企業所組成的
78.To give you a better picture, think about a metropolitan area.
再給你們一個更好的示範圖 想像一下大都會區域
79.So you have the suburbs and the periphery, you have a center like a financial district, then the core will be something like the tallest high rise building in the center.
你們會看到郊區和外圍地區 你們會看到一個中央區像是金融中心這樣的地方 而核心就會像是 在中央區內高聳入雲的那棟建築
80.And we already see signs of organization going on here.
而我們已經看到組織正在往這裡移動的跡象
81.Thirty-six percent of the TNCs are in the core only, but they make up 95 percent of the total operating revenue of all TNCs.
只有百分之三十六的TNC在這個核心中 但它們卻創造出全部TNC百分之九十五 的總營業收入
82.Okay, so now we analyzed the structure, so how does this relate to the control?
現在，我們來分析這個結構 這個和控制權有甚麼關係呢?
83.Well, ownership gives voting rights to shareholders.
實際上，所有權讓股東們擁有投票的權力
84.This is the normal notion of control.
這是對控制權最基本的概念
85.And there are different models which allow you to compute the control you get from ownership.
而這裡有不同的模型讓你來計算 你從所有權中，可以獲得的控制權
86.If you have more than 50 percent of the shares in a company, you get control, but usually it depends on the relative distribution of shares.
如果你擁有一間公司超過百分之五十的股份時 你就獲得了控制權 但這通常有賴於股份的相對分布
87.And the network really matters.
因此，網絡在此占了一席之地
88.About 10 years ago, Mr. Tronchetti Provera had ownership and control in a small company, which had ownership and control in a bigger company.
大約十年前，Tronchetti Provera先生 (Pirelli集團負責人) 擁有一間小公司的所有權和控制權 而這小公司擁有一間較大的公司的所有權和控制權
89.You get the idea.
你們大概猜到了
90.This ended up giving him control in Telecom Italia with a leverage of 26.
到最後，這讓他擁有了義大利電信的控制權 而他的財務槓桿指數是廿六
91.So this means that, with each euro he invested, he was able to move 26 euros of market value through the chain of ownership relations.
這代表的意涵是，他每投資一塊歐元 他就可以操控等同市場價值26歐元的資金 這是經由所有權關係的連鎖反應的結果
92.Now what we actually computed in our study was the control over the TNCs' value.
現在，我們在我們的研究中實際上所計算的 就是所有TNC價值的控制權
93.This allowed us to assign a degree of influence to each shareholder.
這讓我們可以計算出一個值，來代表每位股東 的影響程度
94.This is very much in the sense of Max Weber's idea of potential power, which is the probability of imposing one's own will despite the opposition of others.
這樣的概念就像是 Max Weber 所提出的潛在力量(現代社會學和公共行政學重要創始人之一) 也就是一個人要將自己的意念 強加在反對者身上的可能向
95.If you want to compute the flow in an ownership network, this is what you have to do.
如果你想要計算出一個所有權網絡中的流動性 這就是你所要做的事
96.It's actually not that hard to understand.
實際上，要了解它不是那麼難
97.Let me explain by giving you this analogy.
讓我用一個類比的方式來解釋
98.So think about water flowing in pipes where the pipes have different thickness.
想像一下，水在許多水管中流動 這些水管的粗細都不同
99.So similarly, the control is flowing in the ownership networks and is accumulating at the nodes.
同樣地，控制權就是所有權網絡中的流水一樣 而且這會在每個節點中不斷累積
100.So what did we find after computing all this network control?
所以，我們在計算這些網絡控制權後發現了甚麼?
101.Well, it turns out that the 737 top shareholders have the potential to collectively control 80 percent of the TNCs' value.
實際上，這展示出排名前七百卅七個的股東們 擁有潛在的共同控制權 掌控百分之八十的TNC總價值
102.Now remember, we started out with 600,000 nodes, so these 737 top players make up a bit more than 0.1 percent.
現在，請記住，我們是從六十萬個節點中開始的 所以這排名前七百卅七個成員 大概只比百分之零點一還要多出一點點
103.They're mostly financial institutions in the U.S. and the U.K.
它們絕大多數是位於美國和英國的金融機構
104.And it gets even more extreme.
而更極端的是
105.There are 146 top players in the core, and they together have the potential to collectively control 40 percent of the TNCs' value.
在核心中有一百四十六個成員 它們擁有的潛在共同控制權 是百分之四十的TNC總價值
106.What should you take home from all of this?
你們從這之中應該帶回家裡的是
107.Well, the high degree of control you saw is very extreme by any standard.
你們所看到的，高控制程度 對於各種標準來看都是非常極端的
108.The high degree of interconnectivity of the top players in the core could pose a significant systemic risk to the global economy and we could easily reproduce the TNC network
高度的內部連接性 在核心中的頂尖成員來說 可以對全球經濟造成很顯著的系統性風險 同時，我們可以很輕易地複製TNC網絡
109.with a few simple rules.
只要用幾個簡單的規則
110.This means that its structure is probably the result of self-organization.
這代表的是，這個網絡很有可能是 自我組織的結果
111.It's an emergent property which depends on the rules of interaction in the system, so it's probably not the result of a top-down approach
這是一個很危急的產物，因為它依靠的是 系統內部互動的規則 所以，它很可能不是上而下法 (top-down approach)的結果
112.like a global conspiracy.
如同全球性陰謀一樣
113.Our study "is an impression of the moon's surface.
我們的研究 "是對月球表面的驚鴻一瞥
114.It's not a street map."
不是細如街景地圖一般"
115.So you should take the exact numbers in our study with a grain of salt, yet it "gave us a tantalizing glimpse of a brave new world of finance."
所以你們應該對我們研究中幾個確切的數字 持懷疑的態度 雖然它 "讓財金這個勇敢的新世界 給了我們一個誘人的一瞥"
116.We hope to have opened the door for more such research in this direction, so the remaining unknown terrain will be charted in the future.
我們希望能讓這類型的研究敞開大門 如此，剩餘的那些未知大陸才能夠在未來被勾勒出來
117.And this is slowly starting.
而這發生得很慢
118.We're seeing the emergence of long-term and highly-funded programs which aim at understanding our networked world from a complexity point of view.
我們尋找的是長期 且被高度投資的計畫的出現，針對的是 從複雜的觀點來瞭解我們的網絡世界
119.But this journey has only just begun, so we will have to wait before we see the first results.
但這個旅程才剛啟程 所以，在我們看到第一個結果之前，我們必須等待
120.Now there is still a big problem, in my opinion.
現在，在我看來，仍然還有個很大的問題
121.Ideas relating to finance, economics, politics, society, are very often tainted by people's personal ideologies.
關於財務、經濟、政治 社會的想法很多都被汙染了 人們的自我意識形態造成這種現象
122.I really hope that this complexity perspective allows for some common ground to be found.
我真心希望這樣充滿複雜性的觀點 能夠找到一些共同點
123.It would be really great if it has the power to help end the gridlock created by conflicting ideas, which appears to be paralyzing our globalized world.
如果它擁有打破因為觀念衝突所造成的 僵局的力量，那就真的是太棒了 這樣的僵局會癱瘓我們正在全球化的世界
124.Reality is so complex, we need to move away from dogma.
現實是非常複雜的我們必須拋下我們心中的教條
125.But this is just my own personal ideology.
但這只是我自己的意識形態
126.Thank you.
謝謝你們
