15个关于投资的不幸真相

Sorry, but ...

对不起，但是……

1. Saying 'I'll be greedy when others are fearful' is much easier than actually doing it.

“别人恐惧时我贪婪”，这句话说起来容易，真正做起来难。

2. Markets go through at least one big pullback every year, and one massive one every decade. Get used to it. It's just what they do.

市场至少每年都经历一次大幅回调，每十年一次巨幅回调。习惯它吧。它们就是这样的。

3. There is virtually no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds.

在金融专家这个圈子里，几乎没有任何问责。有些人多年来对所有事情都判断错了，却依然吸引着不少人群。

4. There are tens of thousands of professional money managers. Statistically, a handful of them have been successful by pure chance. Which ones? I don't know, but I bet a few are famous.

我们数以万计的职业资金经理。统计上看，他们中有一小部分人获得成功完全靠的运气。哪些人？我不知道，但我敢打赌有些挺出名的。

5. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.

一笔投资感觉起来越舒服，你就越有可能被宰。

6. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run. End of story.

这世界上没有任何一个人知道市场在短期内会怎么样。讲完了。

7. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (U.C. Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).

一个人上电视越多，他或她的预言成真的可能性就越小。（加州大学伯克利分校的心理学家Phil Teltlock有这方面的数据。）

8. For most, finding ways to save more money is more important than finding great investments.

对多数人而言，找办法多存点钱比找好的投资更加重要。

9. Twenty years from now the S&P 500 will look nothing like it does today. Companies die and new ones emerge.

二十年之后标普500指数将与今天看起来完全不同。公司总会消亡，而新的公司浮现。

10. Twelve years ago General Motors was on top of the world and Apple was laughed at. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.

十二年前，通用汽车正处于世界之巅，而苹果为人嘲笑。未来十年会有类似的转变发生，但没人知道将对哪家公司。

11. The next recession is never like the last one.

下一次衰退绝不会像上一次那样。

12. Remember what Buffett says about progress: 'First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots.'

记住巴菲特说的关于进步：“首先来的是创新者，然后来的是模仿者，最后来的是白痴。”

13. And what Mark Twain says about truth: 'A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes.'

马克·吐温说的关于真理：“真理还在穿鞋的时候，谎言能够走遍半个世界。”

14. And what Marty Whitman says about information: 'Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.'

还有Marty Whitman说的关于信息：“真正重要的变量很少超过三四个。其他一切都是噪音。”

15. The most boring companies -- toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.

最乏味的那些公司——牙膏、食品、螺钉——可能成为最佳的长期投资。最具创新的那些，则可能最糟糕。