美联储2月议息会议声明
维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0.5-0.75%不变
声明公布后，美元先跌后涨
美股和美债利率小幅上升
去年12月美联储预测，2017年将加息三次，从此次加息会议声明中，市场或许可以找到何时加息的蛛丝马迹。
国信证券宏观分析师董德志、陶川认为，此次声明有如下几点值得关注：
一是整体的经济展望较去年12月没有改变。加入了“消费者和企业情绪度量指标近期改善”这一新的措辞。这反应了美联储对于当下市场price in特朗普政策刺激的的关注。
二是美联储对通胀的回升依然不满意，声明不仅指出实际通胀的回升缓慢，还指出了“基于市场的通胀补偿指标仍处低位”。该指标曾在去年12月议息会议前持续回升，但近期回升势头已明显放缓。
三是由于目前对特朗普财政刺激的推出时间和内容等信息知之甚少，美联储并没有在声明中对此进行评论，也没有改变其证券再投资计划。
在当前美国劳动市场进入充分就业的状态下，通胀已成为影响美联储加息决策的关键因素。而2月会议声明中可看出，美联储对通胀的回升依然不满意。从当前的势头看，预计通胀预期至少要到3月以后才能够稳定地回升至上述区间，届时美联储才会考虑下一次加息。理由如下：
首先，年初美国实际通胀的走势将令3月加息缺乏依据。美联储3月议息会议将于2017年3月14-15日召开。就其关注的通胀数据而言，届时美联储可以获得的仅有1月的核心PCE，以及1月和2月的核心CPI，其中前者是美联储更偏爱的通胀指标。
然而如图1所示，核心PCE和核心CPI在2016年初的环比均明显走强，其中前者在1月环比增长0.3%为全年最高，后者在2月环比增长0.5%亦为全年最高。因此考虑到基数效应，核心PCE和核心CPI同比在2017年初走弱是大概率事件。
其次，当前美国通胀预期的回升也不支持3月加息。由于美联储的通胀指标（核心PCE同比）在上半年难以实现其2%的目标水平，因此短期内通胀预期的变化无疑将成为其货币政策决策更加倚重的变量（正如本次议息会议声明所述）。
如图1所示，在近期油价上涨和特朗普新政的背景下，市场对于美国长期通胀的预期虽明显回升，但仍低于油价下跌前的一倍标准差区间，也即美联储认为的正常范围。
香港金管局发言人的响应如下:美国联邦公开市场委员会在昨天的会议上决定维持利率不变，并表示美国经济表现逐步接近美联储的全面就业和物价稳定的政策目标，令今年循序渐进加息的条件增强。
随着美国利率逐渐正常化，全球资金流向、汇率和资产市场都可能会受到影响。我们继续提醒银行、企业以及个人保持警觉，审慎管理风险，以应对往后美国加息可能引致的资金流向改变和市场波动。
美联储声明英文原文：
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has continued to expand at a moderate pace. Job gains remained solid and the unemployment rate stayed near its recent low. Household spending has continued to rise moderately while business fixed investment has remained soft.
Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run objective. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further, and inflation will rise to 2 percent over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/2 to 3/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Patrick Harker; Robert S. Kaplan; Neel Kashkari; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo.
我是翻译的分界线
联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)自12月会议以来获得的信息显示，就业市 场继续增强，经济活动继续以温和步幅扩张。就业增长保持稳健，失业率 仍接近近期低位。家庭支出继续温和增长，但企业固定投资保持疲弱。消 费者和企业信心指标近期已有改善。通胀近几季上升，但仍低于委员会的 2%较长期目标。基于市场的通胀补偿指标仍处于低位，多数基于调查的指 标显示，较长期通胀预期基本上变动不大。
委员会将依照法定的目标，寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定。委员会 预计，随着货币政策立场的逐步调整，经济活动将温和扩张，就业市场状 况将进一步有所增强，预计通胀将在中期升至2%。经济前景的短期风险看 来大致均衡。委员会将继续密切关注通胀指标和全球经济和金融发展。
鉴于已实现的和预期的就业市场状况和通胀，委员会决定将联邦基金 利率目标区间维持在0.50-0.75%。货币政策立场保持宽松，因此会支持就 业市场状况进一步改善，并带动通胀回升至2%。
在决定未来调整联邦基金利率目标区间的时机和规模时，委员会将评 估与就业最大化以及2%通胀目标相关的已实现和预期的经济活动状况。评 估将考量广泛的信息，包括就业市场状况数据、通胀压力和通胀预期指标 ，以及反应金融市场和国际情势发展的指标。鉴于目前通胀仍未达到2%目 标，委员会将密切监控向通胀目标取得的实际和预期的进展。委员会预计 ，经济未来的发展只能为逐步上调联邦基金利率提供理据；联邦基金利率 可能在一段时间内会维持在低于预计在较长期内保持的水准。不过，联邦 基金利率实际路径将取决于未来数据展现的经济前景。
委员会维持把所持机构债和机构MBS回笼本金再投资到机构MBS的现有 政策，以及通过标购继续延长所持公债年期。委员会预计将保持这些做法 ，直至联邦基金利率水准正常化进行了相当长一段时间后。委员会透过这 一政策持有庞大的较长期证券仓位应会有助于维持宽松的金融市场状况。
投票赞成美联储货币政策决议的FOMC委员包括：美联储主席叶伦、副主席杜德利、理事布雷纳德、芝加哥联邦储备银行总裁埃文斯、理事费舍尔、费城联邦储备银行总裁哈克、达拉斯联邦储备银行总裁柯普朗、明尼亚波利斯联邦储备银行总裁卡什卡利、理事鲍威尔、理事塔鲁洛。
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