《世界经济展望报告》是由国际货币基金组织（IMF）研究人员撰写的经济概览，着重分析世界宏观经济形势并对经济前景进行预测，每年发布两次。中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）作为国际货币基金组织的长期稳定合作伙伴，每年定期联合发布该报告，共同致力于全球经济形势和货币金融领域的研究和探讨。
2022年“IMF《世界经济展望报告》发布会”将于5月11日以Zoom视频会议的形式线上举行，本次会议由国际货币基金组织驻华代表处、中国人民大学国际货币研究所联合主办，中国国际金融学会、中国银行研究院合办。IMF驻华首席代表Steven Barnett、副代表李鑫，IMF研究部经济学家Davide Malacrino、欧洲部经济学家Ting Lan，中国人民大学原副校长、中国资本市场研究院院长吴晓求将出席会议并做主题演讲。
The Launch of IMF World Economic Outlook will be held on May 11, 09:00am to 11:30am virtually via Zoom Cloud Meetings, jointly organized by IMF Resident Representative Office in China and International Monetary Institute (IMI) at Renmin University of China, co-organized by China International Finance Society and the Research Institute of Bank of China. Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China, Mr. Davide Malacrino, Economist from IMF Research Department, Ms. Ting Lan, Economist from IMF European Department, and Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean of the Academy of China Capital Market will deliver keynote speeches on world and regional economic outlook.
此次会议参加名额有限，需要提前报名审核。此次会议对金桐全球英才计划模拟IMF项目组全体成员开放特别通道，同学们可以集体听会和参与问答环节，对金桐全球英才计划中非模拟IMF项目组的同学也开放少数名额 ，请大家关注班级群中发布的参会路径，珍惜机会、认真听会、积极提问。
会议信息
时间：2022年5月11日（周三） 09:00-11:30
形式：Zoom视频会议
语言：中英文，配有同传
主办：国际货币基金组织驻华代表处，中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）
合办：中国国际金融学会，中国银行研究院
主持：张之骧 中国人民银行国际司原司长、中国驻IMF原执行董事
Basic information
Time: 09:00am-11:30am Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Form: Virtual via Zoom
Language: Chinese/English (with simultaneous translation)
Organized by: IMF Resident Representative Office in China，International Monetary Institute (IMI), Renmin University of China
Co-organized by: China International Finance Society ，Research Institute of Bank of China
Chaired by: Mr. Zhang Zhixiang, Former Director General of International Department, People’s Bank of China, and Former IMF Executive Director for China
会议议程
09:00—09:10 开场致辞
庄毓敏 中国人民大学财政金融学院院长
09:10—09:40 主题演讲I
Steven Barnett IMF驻华首席代表
嘉宾研讨
魏本华 国家外汇管理局原副局长、中国驻IMF原执行董事
09:40—10:10 主题演讲II
李 鑫 IMF驻华副代表
嘉宾研讨
陈卫东 中国银行研究院院长
10:10—10:40 主题演讲III
Davide Malacrino IMF研究部经济学家
Ting Lan IMF欧洲部经济学家
嘉宾研讨
赵锡军 中国人民大学中国资本市场研究院联席院长
10:40—11:10 主题演讲IV
吴晓求 中国人民大学原副校长、中国资本市场研究院院长
嘉宾研讨
瞿 强 中国人民大学财政金融学院教授
11:10—11:30 Q&A
Agenda
09:00—09:10 Opening Address
Prof. Zhuang Yumin, Dean, School of Finance, Renmin University of China
09:10—09:40 Presentation I
Mr. Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative of IMF in China
Discussant
Mr. Wei Benhua, Former Deputy Administrator, State Administration of Foreign Exchange, and Former IMF Executive Director for China
09:40—10:10 Presentation II
Mr. Li Xin, Deputy Resident Representative of IMF in China
Discussant
Mr. Chen Weidong, Director, Research Institute of Bank of China
10:10—10:40 Presentation III
Mr. Davide Malacrino, Economist, Research Department of IMF
Ms. Ting Lan, Economist, European Department of IMF
Discussant
Prof. Zhao Xijun, Co-Dean, Academy of China Capital Market, Renmin University
10:40—11:10 Presentation IV
Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu, Dean, Academy of China Capital Market, Former Vice President of Renmin University of China
Discussant
Prof. Qu Qiang, Professor, School of Finance, Renmin University of China
11:10—11:30 Q&A
主讲嘉宾简介
Bios of speakers
Steven Barnett
IMF驻华首席代表
Barnett先生现任国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华首席代表，此前他担任IMF副总裁顾问。他职业生涯的大部分时间都在研究亚洲经济，曾任IMF亚太部中国处处长，IMF亚太区域办公室（东京）助理主任，IMF驻华副代表和驻泰国代表。1997年加入IMF之前，他在马里兰大学获得经济学博士学位。他拥有斯坦福大学经济学学士学位，斯坦福大学俄罗斯与东欧研究硕士学位。
Mr. Barnett recently became the International Monetary Fund’s Senior Resident Representative for China. Prior to that, he worked as an Advisor to the Deputy Managing Director. For much of his career, however, he covered Asia. His positions included Chief of the China Division in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department, Assistant Director at the IMF Office for Asia and the Pacific in Tokyo, Resident Representative to China, and Resident Representative to Thailand. Prior to joining the IMF in 1997, he earned his PhD in economics from the University of Maryland. He has a Bachelor's degree in economics from Stanford University as well as a Master's degree in Russian and East European Studies, also from Stanford.
李鑫
IMF驻华副代表
李鑫现任国际货币基金组织（IMF）驻华副代表。此前，他在IMF总部亚太局日本处和马来西亚处担任经济学家，其工作专注于宏观经济预测、分析一国的内部和外部失衡、以及宏观结构性问题。同时，他还负责了非常规货币及财政政策、公司储蓄率、劳动力移民和非正规经济等多个研究项目。加入亚太部之前，他曾在IMF的风险管理办公室担任经济学家，负责建立风险管理工具并监控IMF核心业务所面临的风险。李鑫获北京大学物理学学士学位和经济学学士双学位，以及美国莱斯大学经济学博士学位。
Mr. Xin Li is the IMF Deputy Resident Representative for China. Previously, he was a desk economist on Japan and Malaysia in the IMF’s Asia and Pacific Department based in Washington D.C., where he focused on macroeconomic forecasting, internal and external imbalance, and macro-structural issues while conducting research on unconventional monetary and fiscal policies, corporate saving, migrant labor, and informal economy. Prior to that, he worked as an economist in the IMF’s Office of Risk Management, building risk management tools and monitoring core risks faced by the IMF. He earned his Ph.D. in economics from Rice University; he also holds bachelor’s degrees in physics and economics (double major) from Peking University.
Davide Malacrino
IMF研究部经济学家
Davide Malacrino 是国际货币基金组织研究部经济学家，从事结构改革和多边监督等问题的研究。他曾在IMF欧洲部负责欧元区和冰岛的监管研究工作。他曾多次发表劳动经济学和家庭金融方面的研究论文，主要研究领域包括收入动态、收入和财富不平等、企业家精神。他在斯坦福大学获得经济学博士学位。
Davide Malacrino is an Economist in the Research Department of the IMF, where he has worked on structural reforms and multilateral surveillance issues. Previously, he was in the European Department where he has done surveillance work for the euro area and for Iceland. His research in labor economics and household finance is published in academic journals and focuses on earnings dynamics, income and wealth inequality, and entrepreneurship. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from Stanford University.
Ting Lan
IMF欧洲部经济学家
Ting Lan 是国际货币基金组织欧洲部经济学家，负责欧元区的区域研究和德国的监管研究工作。她曾在IMF统计部从事数据监控工作。她的研究方向包括宏观经济学和国际贸易，重点研究贸易和增长、创新和生产率以及经济地理。她在密歇根大学获得经济学博士学位。
Ting Lan is an Economist in the European Department of the IMF, where she conducts regional studies for the euro area and surveillance work for Germany. Previously, she was in the Statistics Department and worked on data surveillance. Her research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics and international trade and focus on trade and growth, innovation and productivity, and economic geography. She holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Michigan.
吴晓求
中国人民大学原副校长
中国资本市场研究院院长
吴晓求，现任中国资本市场研究院院长，中国人民大学原副校长。主要社会学术职务：全国金融专业学位研究生教育指导委员会第一副主任委员、全国金融学教学指导委员会（本科）副主任、国务院学位委员会应用经济学科评议组成员、中国教育发展战略学会高等教育专业委员会理事长、北京市学位委员会委员、中国金融学会常务理事。吴晓求教授在宏观经济、金融改革和资本市场等领域有深入、独到研究。吴晓求教授是我国经济学界在资本市场研究领域有重要影响力的专家之一，是我国证券教学、科研、人才培养和资本市场理论研究的重要开拓者。
Prof. Wu Xiao is the Dean of Academy of China Capital Market and Former Vice President of Renmin University. Other positions he has held include First Vice Chairman of National Steering Committee for Graduate Education in Finance, member of Assessment Group (Applied Economics) of Degree Committee under the State Council, member of Assessment Panel (Disciplines of Administration) of National Fund for Social Sciences, member of Municipal Degree Committee of Beijing, member of the ninth Issuance Examination Committee of China Securities Regulation Commission, Executive Director of China Finance Society, and Director of China Center for International Economic Exchanges. Prof. Wu Xiaoqiu is one of the most influential professors in the study of capital market in China.
背景介绍
Background
2022年4月《世界经济展望报告》
地缘政治冲击下的世界经济增长前景
俄乌战争引发了一场代价高昂的人道主义危机，需要得到和平解决。同时，这场冲突造成的经济损失将导致2022年全球经济增速显著放缓并推升通胀。燃料和粮食价格快速上涨，低收入国家的弱势群体受到的打击最大。
全球经济增速预计将从2021年6.1%的估计值下降至2022年和2023年的3.6%。2022年和2023年的经济增速预测值分别较1月预测值下调了0.8和0.2个百分点。
2023年之后，全球经济增速预计将放缓，并在中期回落至3.3%左右。由于俄乌战争导致大宗商品价格上涨、价格压力不断扩大，2022年，发达经济体的通胀率预计为5.7%，新兴市场和发展中经济体的通胀率预计为8.7%，二者较1月的预测值分别高出1.8和2.8个百分点。各方应通过多边努力应对人道主义危机，防止经济进一步割裂，维持全球流动性，管理债务危机，应对气候变化，并结束新冠疫情——这些工作依然至关重要。
IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2022.
War sets back the global recovery
The war in Ukraine has triggered a costly humanitarian crisis that demands a peaceful resolution. At the same time, economic damage from the conflict will contribute to a significant slowdown in global growth in 2022 and add to inflation. Fuel and food prices have increased rapidly, hitting vulnerable populations in low-income countries hardest.
Global growth is projected to slow from an estimated 6.1 percent in 2021 to 3.6 percent in 2022 and 2023. This is 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points lower for 2022 and 2023 than projected in January.
Beyond 2023, global growth is forecast to decline to about 3.3 percent over the medium term. War-induced commodity price increases and broadening price pressures have led to 2022 inflation projections of 5.7 percent in advanced economies and 8.7 percent in emerging market and developing economies—1.8 and 2.8 percentage points higher than projected last January. Multilateral efforts to respond to the humanitarian crisis, prevent further economic fragmentation, maintain global liquidity, manage debt distress, tackle climate change, and end the pandemic are essential.
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