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导读
2018年美国经济会过热吗？
（视频较长，推荐观看前13分钟）
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音乐| 精读 | 翻译 | 词组
本次文章很长，可以拉到最后感想部分Lulu同学给大家列好了提纲
Seeking a soft landing
寻求软着陆
本文英文部分选自经济学人Finance and economics版块
Will America’s economy overheat in 2018?
2018美国经济是否会过热?
The labour market is the healthiest it has been for at least a decade. But inflation remains low.
劳动力市场达近10年来最健康水平。但通货膨胀率仍较低。
USUALLY politicians pretend that good economic news on their watch is no surprise. But America’s recent growth figures have been so positive that even the administration of President Donald Trump has allowed itself to marvel. “It’s actually happening faster than we expected,” mused Mick Mulvaney, the White House budget chief, in September, after growth rose to 3.1% in the second quarter. (Mr Trump in fact came to office promising 4% growth, but the goal now seems to be 3%.) Mr Mulvaney warned that hurricanes would soon bring growth back down. Instead, in the third quarter, it rose to 3.3%—a figure celebrated with more conviction. The administration’s initial caution was wise: quarterly growth figures are volatile, and few economists expect growth above 3% to carry on for long. Yet there is no denying that the economy is in rude health.
政客们通常会佯称，经济利好消息在他们看来并不意外。但美国最近的增长数据如此乐观，以至于连唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)政府都惊叹不已。今年9月，白宫预算主管米克·穆瓦尼(Mick Mulvaney)在经济第二季度增长至3.1%后，若有所思地说:“经济增速确实超出我们的预期。”(事实上，特朗普上任时承诺增长4%，但现在的目标似乎是3%。)Mulvaney先生警示说飓风会很快使经济增长回落。相反地，第三季度经济增长上升至3.3%——显然数据更具说服力。奥巴马政府最初的谨慎是明智的:季度增长数据波动较大，而且没有经济学家预计超过3%的增长会持续很长时间。然而，不可否认的是，经济正处于非常健康的状态。
In part, that reflects the strength of the global economy. But it is also the culmination of a years-long trend. As politics has consumed America’s attention for the past two years, common complaints from earlier in the decade have, one by one, begun to look dated. The median household income is no longer stagnant, having grown by 5.2% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, after adjusting for inflation. During those two years, poorer households gained more, on average, than richer ones. Business investment is no longer tepid: it drove growth in the third quarter of the year (see chart 1). Jobs are plentiful—unemployment is just 4.1%. From Wall Street to Main Street, businesses ooze confidence. What is more, tax cuts are poised to stimulate the economy. Analysts no longer ask when growth will at last pick up. Instead, they wonder if the economy might overheat.
这在一定程度上反映出全球经济势头强劲。但这也是多年来趋势的顶点。在过去两年中，美国人的注意力被政治事件所分散。家庭收入中位数不再停滞不前，经通胀调整，2015年较上年增长5.2%，2016年较2015年增长3.2%。两年里，贫困家庭的平均收入增长比率超富裕家庭。商业投资不再平淡:商业投资推动了今年第三季度整体经济增长(见表1)。就业机会充足，失业率仅4.1%。从华尔街到主城区（从金融到实业），企业均信心满满。更重要的是，减税政策将有效刺激经济。分析师们不再问经济增长何时是头。相反，他们开始担心经济是否会过热。
The Federal Reserve is alert to the risk. On December 13th it announced its third interest-rate rise this year, and the fifth during this economic expansion, taking rates to 1.25-1.5%. The median forecast of the Fed’s rate-setting committee is for three more rate rises in 2018. Not a single rate-setter thinks that today’s low rate of unemployment is sustainable. Yet all predict that joblessness will fall further in 2018.
美联储(Fed)开始提示风险。12月13日，美联储宣布了今年第三次加息，为经济扩张周期下第五次加息，利率从1.25%升至1.5%。美联储利率设定委员会中期预测2018年将再有三次加息。尽管没有一个决策者认为当前的低失业率是可持续的，但所有人仍预计到2018年失业率将进一步下降。
The Fed is right to fret. Credible forecasters are almost unanimous: the sustainable rate of growth, as America’s population greys, is closer to 2% than to 3%, whatever Mr Trump says. In the past three months the economy has created an average of 170,000 jobs per month. Yet over the decade to 2026 the population of 20-64-year-olds will, on official projections, grow by fewer than 50,000 a month. Joblessness cannot fall for ever, so, unless productivity accelerates, growth must fall. If the Fed keeps money too loose, inflation will eventually rise, as the economy gets too hot.
美联储的担心是无可厚非的。权威的预测家们几乎达成共识，他们认为，不论川普发表何种言论，随着美国老龄化人口的增加，经济可持续增长率终将稳定在2%到2.5%之间。在过去三个月里，平均每月新增就业17万。但是，在未来的10年内，官方预测20到64岁年龄层的人数月均增长不到5万。失业率绝不可能无止尽下降。除非劳动生产率提高，失业率增长才会放缓。如果美联储维持宽松的货币政策，经济变得过热，通货膨胀终将上升。
Households seem exuberant. In October the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index hit its highest level since 2004. Recent consumption growth has been fuelled by a steep fall in household saving, which is down from over 6% of GDP two years ago to just 3.2% today. In early 2016 some analysts fretted that consumers were squirrelling away the money they were saving on cheap petrol, and so denying the economy a needed fillip. Today, the opposite worry seems more pertinent: oil prices have recovered somewhat, but the saving rate has tumbled.
家庭财务状况可喜。10月份密歇根大学消费者信心指数创2004年以来新高。近期消费增长得益于家庭储蓄的大幅下降。两年前，家庭储蓄占据GDP的比例超过6%，而现在只有3.2%。2016年初，一些分析学家担心：消费者会把存下来的钱用来购买低价的石油，因此他们不赞同经济需要刺激作用。而如今，相反的担忧似乎更加中肯：油价已有所回升，但储蓄率却大幅下降。
http://www.cc4cc.com/news/view.jsp?id=11969
10月密歇根大学消费者信心创2004年来新高 通胀预期略下降
Falling saving is a worry, but consumers’ cheer is well-rooted in the buoyancy of the labour market and the strength of household balance-sheets. With interest rates low, debt-service costs, as a share of after-tax income, are close to a record low. Most American mortgages bear fixed interest rates, so homeowners are shielded from higher rates. And house prices have been rising, too. In the third quarter of 2016 they passed their peak of 2007. Since then, they have risen by another 6.3%.
储蓄下降确实令人担忧，但是，消费欲望取决于劳动力市场的活跃程度和家庭的经济实力。由于利率水平较低，归属于税后收入部分的贷款利息，将接近历史最低记录。美国大部分房贷按揭都采用固定利率，因此，购房人能规避利率提升带来的风险。并且，房价也在持续上涨，2016年第三季度的房价就已经超过了2007年的峰值。从那时起至今，房价又增长了6.3%。
Rich pickings
丰厚的外快
Higher house prices and a stockmarket boom have delivered a wealth windfall. Households and non-profit organisations now hold assets worth nearly seven times their after-tax income, the highest ratio on record. Middle-earners have seen the biggest gains, according to a recent Fed survey. The average net worth of households in the middle quintile of the income distribution (ie, from the 40th to the 60th percentile) rose by 34% between 2013 and 2016. House prices have recovered despite strict lending regulations introduced after the financial crisis. Mortgages remain difficult for those with poor credit scores.
房价的增长和股市的繁荣带来了一笔意外之财。家庭和非营利机构如今掌握的资金大约是他们税后收入的七倍，创历史新高。同时据联邦储蓄局最近调查显示，中产阶级获得最大收益。从2013年到2016年，家庭的平均净资产，在收入分配的中间的五分位数(即,从40到60百分位)上升了34%。
House prices have recovered despite strict lending regulations introduced after the financial crisis. Mortgages remain difficult for those with poor credit scores.Politics has helped business confidence. Optimism surged among small firms after Mr Trump won the election. On December 5th, days after the Republicans’ tax bill passed in the Senate, confidence among chief executives reached its highest level for nearly six years, says Business Roundtable, a lobby group. The prospect of a big cut to corporate taxes (and, perhaps, of deregulation) has boosted a stock market already on a long winning run. From the market trough in March 2009 to Mr Trump’selection,the S&P 500 rose at an average annual pace of16%. Since his victory, it has grown at a 22% annualised pace.
尽管金融危机后实施了严苛的贷款制度，房价也已恢复动能。对于信用积分低的人来说房屋抵押贷款仍非常困难。政策提振企业信心。特朗普赢得选举之后，小企业中乐观主义比例急剧升高。游说组织商务圆桌会议表示在共和党税法修正案通过的几天后——12月5日，各行政长官的信心达近六年最高，企业税的大幅减少（或放松管制）助力股市未来长期走强。从2009年3月到特朗普当选，标普500指数平均每年增长16%。但自他胜利当选以来，标准普尔500指数年平均增速为22%。
A booming stock market pleases investors, but it poses another conundrum for the Fed. Some rate-setters worry that loose monetary policy may inflate asset bubbles. And soaring stocks have contributed to a general loosening of financial conditions. The dollar is about 7% weaker, on a trade-weighted basis, than it was at the start of the year. Long-term bond yields have also fallen slightly, having surged after the election. William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, has argued that looser financial conditions strengthen the case for interest-rate rises, because it is by influencing financial markets that monetary policy is supposed to work. According to analysis by Goldman Sachs, financial conditions have actually eased after every instance of Fed tightening since it started raising rates in December 2015.
股市的繁荣使投资者们感到开心，但是它给美联储带来了另外一个难题。一些利率制定者担心宽松的货币政策可能会引发资金泡沫。飙升的股价造成金融状况整体宽松。以贸易加权计算，年初至今美元已贬值近7%长期债券收益率自选举后急剧增长，现亦轻微回调。纽约联储主席杜德利(William Dudley)表示：宽松的金融环境促进利率增长，因为在金融市场的影响下货币政策才能运转。据高盛分析，自2015年12月美联储开始升息以来，每一次紧缩政策却使金融行业更放松。
A crucial element is missing, however, from the “overheating” analysis: inflation. Since the spring, it has persistently fallen short of expectations. Excluding food and energy, prices in October were only 1.4% higher than a year earlier, by the Fed’s preferred measure. Wages, too, do not reflect the apparent strength of the labour market (see chart 2). Though blue-collar and service workers are seeing higher pay rises— the wages and salaries of production workers grew at a 3.8% annualised pace in the third quarter of the year—professionals have seen their pay growth slow. Overall, wages are rising by about 2.5%, no faster than two years ago.
然而，根据对经济过热的分析，人们忽略了一个至关重要的因素，那就是通货膨胀。根据美联储的最初估量：从春季以来，通胀持续低于市场预期，（剔除食物和能源价格的影响），十月份的价格仅同比上涨1.4%。工资也是如此，劳工市场的薪资并没有显著提升。蓝领和服务业人员的薪水确实得到了增长（今年第三季度制造业工人薪水按年增长3.8%），然而专业人员的工资增速却有所放缓。整体工资水平大约以2.5%的速度增长，与两年前比相较无差。
One reason is the time it takes for low unemployment to translate into inflation. In the meantime, one-off factors can distort the data. Ms Yellen points to price cuts for mobile-phone contracts at the start of the year. These should soon drop out of the numbers. Others blame the “Amazon effect”—brutal price wars among retailers. Perhaps, too, the Phillips curve—the relationship between inflation and unemployment—is jagged, and inflation will suddenly spike once joblessness falls too low.
原因之一是低失业率耗费时间转化成通货膨胀，与此同时，一次性的因素会串改数据。耶伦女士指出年初为了移动手机合同缩减价格，不久之后合同数量也会下降。其他人把责任归咎为“亚马逊效应”，也就是零售商之间激励的价格战。也许是菲利普斯曲线—通货膨胀和失业之间的关系—处于高低起伏不平的状态，一旦失业率降的过低，通货膨胀突然急剧增高。
Or perhaps the labour market is not as hot as the Fed thinks. Estimates of the so called “natural” rate of unemployment—the rate consistent with no upward or downward pressure on inflation—are notoriously unreliable. Rate-setters have gradually revised theirs down, from over 5% at the end of 2013 to 4.6% today. Persistent low inflation may force them to repeat the trick. In any case, notes Michael Pearce of Capital Economics, a consultancy, the Fed’s surveys suggest the labour market is not as tight as it was in, say, mid-2000, when unemployment fell as low at 3.8%. Even in that expansion, underlying inflation did not hit 2%. The boom ended not because of an inflationary surge, but because the dotcom bubble burst.
或许劳动市场不像联邦调查局所想的一样繁盛。“自然”失业率与通货膨胀亦步亦趋，没有上升或下降的趋势，对这种失业率做出的估算是毫无价值可言的。利率制定者已经逐步将利率从2013年底的5%调整到到现在的4.6%。持续的低通胀可能迫使他们重复这样的把戏。无论如何，咨询公司Capital Economics麦克皮尔指出：美联储的调查显示，劳动力市场不像2000年中期时那样紧张，那时失业率降低到3.8%. 即便就业率上升，潜在的通货膨胀也没有达到2%。但好景不长，这样的繁荣没有持续，其原因不是通货膨胀的剧增，而是互联网泡沫的破灭。
Moreover, unemployment is not the only variable to watch. It does not count those who are not looking for a job. During and after the crisis, Americans left the workforce in droves. But since late 2015 the labour-force participation of working-age people, especially women, has been rising. For much of 2016, this trend kept unemployment fairly flat even as the economy added jobs aplenty. Though unemployment has fallen in 2017, working-age participation has kept on rising.
此外，失业率并不是唯一值得关注的变量，因为它不包括那些不找工作的人。在危机期间以及之后，美国人成批地离开职场。但自从2015年末，适龄劳动人口，尤其是女性的劳动参与率一直在上升。2016年的绝大多数时间，尽管经济发展增加了大量就业机会，这种趋势（劳动适龄人口的参与率上升）使得失业率依旧相对平稳。尽管2017年失业率有所下降，但是劳动适龄人口的参与率也一直在上升。
Sceptics doubt whether participation is tightly linked to the economic cycle. They point out that some trends, such as falling participation among working-age men, are very long-running. But participation is at least tricky to forecast. Its recent growth has defied official projections produced by the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS).
怀疑论者怀疑劳动参与率是否真的和经济周期紧密相连。他们指出，有些趋势，比如劳动年龄男性的参与程度下降，是长期存在的。然而劳动参与率又很难预测。而它最近的增长也与劳工统计局（BLS）的官方预测指标大有出入。
Whether that continues will set the economy’s speed limit. The Economist has calculated that, if participation in every age and sex demographic group continues on its trend from the past year, the labour force will grow by around 135,000 workers a month. At recent rates of job growth, unemployment would fall to 3.8% by the end of 2018. But should participation revert to the long-term trend forecast by the BLS, only 86,000 new workers will appear each month. Unemployment would fall much faster next year, to 3.4%.
劳动参与率持续增长是否会影响经济增长。《经济学人》已经计算得出，如果各年龄段和性别人口群体的参与率从去年开始持续上升，那么劳动力将会每月增长13万5千名。按照最近的就业增长速度，，到2018年底，失业率将下降到3.8%。但要，是像BLS预测的劳工参与率长期趋势发展，每个月将只有86000新工人，明年的失业率会下降更快到3.4%，。
The Fed’s rate rises will probably slow job growth before these hypotheses can be tested. Frustrated doves think the central bank should probe the boundaries of the labour market, and not assume it knows them in advance. It risks denying workers the first truly tight labour market in over a decade. Moreover, only if wage growth is allowed to rise will firms be pressed to invest more in labour-saving technology. This could raise productivity growth, revealing more hidden capacity. (Rising investment and a hint of a productivity rebound this year suggest such a process may be about to kick off.) And if the Fed tightens too quickly, sparking a recession, it may be hard to reverse course, since interest rates cannot fall far before hitting zero.
在这些假设被验证之前，美联储的加息或许就减缓了新岗位的增长。“泄气的鸽派”认为央行应该探究劳动力市场的边值，而不是假定事先就知道这个值。这忽视了这是十年来工人们首次面临真正紧张的劳动力市场。而且，只有工资得以上涨，才会迫使企业更多投资于技术，节省劳动力。而这样做，可以提高生产力，释放更多潜在的产能。（今年的投资增长和生产力反弹暗示了这样一个过程可能即将开始。）。而如果美联储紧缩得太快的话，引发经济衰退，可能很难扭转局面，因为利率在触碰到零之前很难大幅下调了。
As evidence that rate-setters are fretting needlessly about inflation, doves point to the bond market. That long-term bond yields have fallen even as the Fed has raised rates suggests investors think the risk of inflation is shrinking. Ms Yellen’s retort is that inflation expectations, as measured by surveys, have held steady this year. That suggests something else could be pushing bond yields around.
利率制定者毫无必要担忧通货膨胀，，而“鸽派”已经把眼光放在了债券市场。尽管美联储提高利率，但长期债券收益率仍在下降，这表明投资者认为通胀的风险在不断下降。耶伦女士反驳说，根据调查结果显示，通胀预期今年保持稳定。这表明其它因素可能会推高债券收益率。
Soon a new Fed chairman will be confronting these puzzles. Jerome Powell is to succeed Ms Yellen in February. Mr Powell, who has served as a Fed governor since 2012, has broadly supported Ms Yellen’s strategy of gradual rises in interest rates. In a confirmation hearing before a Senate panel on November 28th, he seemed, if anything, a little more doveish, acknowledging that low labour-force participation among working-age men might indicate remaining slack in the labour market.
很快新的美联储主席将会面对这些难题。明年二月杰罗姆鲍威尔（Jerome Powell） 将会接替耶伦职位（Yellen）。鲍威尔从2012年以来一直担任美联储理事，他大体上支持耶伦逐步提高利率的策略。11月28日，在参议院小组委员会的一次听证会上，Powell从某种程度上是“鸽派”倾向，并且他承认，适龄工作男性的劳动参与率低也许表明劳动力市场仍处于低迷状态。
Yet the Fed committee is turning over rapidly, and Mr Powell may find himself surrounded by hawks. An example is Marvin Goodfriend, whom Mr Trump has nominated to fill one vacant seat. Mr Goodfriend has for years called for higher rates, prematurely sounding the alarm about inflation as early as 2010. In 2012 he described as “doubtful” the notion that the Fed could bring unemployment down to 7%. When Ms Yellen departs, Mr Trump will have another three seats to fill. Moreover, voting rights rotate among regional Fed presidents, whom the president does not pick1. Three doves—Charles Evans from Chicago, Neel Kashkari from Minneapolis, and Robert Kaplan from Dallas—will lose their votes in January, to be replaced by more hawkish voices. A fourth dove, Mr Dudley, plans to retire in 2018. His new colleagues may test Mr Powell’s commitment to continuing Ms Yellen’s approach.
然而，美联储委员会的氛围正在迅速的改变，鲍威尔可能发现自己被“鹰派们”包围。其中就有Mavin Goodfriend，特朗普已经提名他来接任美联储理事一职。多年来，Mavin Goodfriend一直呼吁提高利率，早在2010年就对通胀发出警告。在2012年，他对“美联储可以将失业率降低至7%”的这个说法表示怀疑。到Yellen离职时，美联储将会有三个席位需要特朗普提名候选。并且地区联储主席们轮流拥有投票权，他们不需要总统特朗普的提名。明年一月份，三个“鸽派”代表—芝加哥的Charles Evans、明尼阿波利斯的Kashkari、达拉斯市的Robert Kaplan，将会失去他们的投票权，取而代之的将会是更多“鹰派”的声音。第四个鸽派人物Dudley，计划将于2018年退休。鲍威尔是否会沿袭Yellen的方针，将取决于他未来新同事们的考验。
The Fed must also decide how to respond to Mr Trump’s tax cuts. Even if the economy is not on the edge of overheating, these are poorly timed. Were stimulus warranted now, the Fed could always cut rates, avoiding the higher public debt that fiscal stimulus incurs2. Tax cuts might spur some investment and raise growth by a few tenths of a percentage point in the short term. But they are also likely to nudge the Fed towards faster rate rises. The central bank’s economic model suggests that for every1% of GDP in tax cuts, rates will eventually rise by0.4 percentage points. The bill that passed the Senate on December 2nd would raise deficits by 0.2% of GDP in 2018 and 1.1% of GDP in 2019, not counting its effect on work and investment incentives.
同时，美联储也必须对特朗普的减税政策做出反应，尽管美国的经济状况还未处于过热的边缘，这也是不合时宜的。如果现在的刺激政策得到了保证，美联储就可以一直降息，避免财政刺激带来的更高的公共债务。从短期来看，减税可能会刺激一些投资，并提高几个百分点的经济增长。但是减税也可能促使美联储加快加息速度。中央银行的经济分析模型表明,对GDP减税一个百分点，利率最终会上升0.4个百分点。12月2日，参议院通过减税议案，将会加深2018和2019年财政赤字，分别占GDP0.2%和1.1%（议案对就业和投资刺激的影响不计算在内）。
Policymakers in recent years have tended to show too much caution, rather than too little. That is why a full recovery from the financial crisis has taken so long; it is in part why inflation is too low today. It seems likelier that they will err on the side of caution than allow the economy to run too hot. But America’s policy debate is finely poised. As the economy approaches its capacity, the margin for error shrinks.
近年来，政策制定者表现得过于谨慎而非贸然。从而解释了为什么经济从08年金融危机中完全恢复花费了如此长的时间；且通货膨胀率如此之低的部分原因。比起允许经济运行过热，政策制定者们似乎更倾向于因谨慎而犯错误，但是美国的政策辩论正蓄势待发。随着美国经济逐渐接近饱和，容许犯错误的余地正在缩小。
注释：
1.美国联邦公开市场委员会
(The Federal Open Market Committee，简称 FOMC)由12名成员组成，分别是7名联邦储备体系理事会理事、12位储备银行行长中的5位行长。其中，理事及纽约储备银行行长共8人为常任委员，剩下的4个席位每年在其余的11位行长中轮换。 美联储理事会主席是联邦公开市场委员会主席，纽约储备银行行长习惯上是副主席。美联储理事会是美联储的最高管理机关，每一名理事都由总统直接任命，任期为14年。理事会主席、副主席由总统提名参议院通过，任期4年。除了7位美联储理事会理事和纽约联邦储备银行行长都拥有永久投票权外，其他4个席位则由剩余的11个地方联储银行行长轮流担任。除去12位拥有投票权的委员之外，其他所有的联邦储备银行行长都可以参加联邦公开市场委员会的讨论会议，但是没有投票权。
2.特朗普的减税议案从财政政策方面刺激经济，而美联储也可以降低利率从货币政策方面给经济提供刺激，他们对经济都存在副作用。
翻译组：
Jzf，女，自由职业，经济学人铁粉
Chengzi， 男，学生，经济学人粉丝
Ailce，女，教育行业，经济学人粉丝
Brandon，男，建筑大四学生，经济学人粉丝
Top，女，翻译专业大三学生，经济学人铁粉
Denise，女，翻译专业大三学生，经济学人铁粉
Jasmine， 女 ，税收专业大三学生， 经济学人粉丝
校核组：
Emily，女，金融民工，经济学人粉丝
Damon，男，建筑民工 ，经济学人铁粉
Lucia ，女，英语专业学生，经济学人粉丝
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观点 |评论|思考
本次观点由金融民工Lulu全权执笔
划重点：单身
认真地读了好几遍这篇文章后（因为看不懂），深深的有种重新捯饬了大学时期的宏观经济学和微观经济学的赶脚，什么菲利普斯曲线，什么利率对债券收益率的影响，什么经济增长理论…不信么？且看分解动作。
鉴于文章是史无前例的长（一共21段，这里不得不吹一下我们人口日益壮大的Finance小组），读起来可能有种看了后边忘了前边，一遍（或者几遍）下来云里雾里，别说原理搞不清楚，我就问你，你说，经济学人到底觉得美国经济有没有过热？--回答不上来？那我们还是老老实实从捋捋结构和逻辑开始（本来应该画个导图，鉴于灵魂画手还在修炼中，大家可以期待下）。
PART1：开头
1-2段，背景介绍：经济向好
全球经济向好，美国经济超预期增长；2015年以来家庭收入增长、投资增长、失业率下降、减税政策进一步刺激经济增长：引出经济过热的担忧。
PART2：正文
3 -4段，美联储采取的措施：货币政策加息
2015年底，美联储开始加息（到目前为止已经加了5次）；如果货币宽松，起通胀，经济会过热。
5-9段，金融市场对上述措施的反应：不配合的舞伴
对于美联储的指导，金融市场看起来拒绝服从：储蓄率下降、房价上涨、股市起舞、美元贬值、长期债券收益率下跌，与进入加息周期后应该有的市场表现几乎是背道而驰。高盛有一项指数衡量的是利率、股价、美元价值变动的综合影响，该指数显示，目前金融大市的状况与2015年初美联储刺激政策达到顶峰时一样宽松。
10-15段，引出判断市场过热的另一个因素：通货膨胀
通胀不明显，工资增速低于应有水平（按照菲利普斯曲线，低失业率伴随着高通胀）。原因分析：1.低失业率向高通胀尚需要时间传导，以及亚马逊的低价效应抑制了通胀；2.劳动力市场可能并不像数据显示的那么好，可信度有待商榷；3.劳动参与率降低对失业率降低的贡献值较大（劳动参与率低也是说明劳动力市场萎靡），下面两个个公式大家可以感受下：
失业率=失业人口/(就业人口+失业人口) （失业人口不含放弃找工作的人）
劳动参与率=（就业人口+失业人口）/适龄劳动人口
16-19段，进而带出鸽派理论（反对加息）vs鹰派理论（加息）
鸽派立场1.提高利率会减弱岗位供给，不利于涨工资，不利于生产率提高；2.长期债券收益率下降（说明投资者预期通胀风险较低），所以根本不用担心通胀；3.劳动参与率低，市场根本就是低迷嘛。
然而，新的美联储团队，鹰派席位更占优势。
PART3：结尾
20-21段，TE观点
减税推动提高利率，美联储需要做出反应。美联储尊的是特别特别谨慎呢，但是宗旨一定是宁可犯错，也要把经济过热扼杀在摇篮里…
以上就是本篇长文的基本框架和逻辑，主要是围绕“货币市场收紧与宽松的金融市场的悖论”、“失业率下降但通货膨胀低迷的悖论”两大主题来展开。目前从美国的预期加息时间表，以及影响更为直接深远的缩表计划来看，其货币政策趋向紧缩，而从减税政策来看，又是属于偏宽松的财政政策。这两种紧缩和宽松政策的配合使用的模式，曾在里根时期面临70年代“滞涨”时出现过，并且取得了相应的成效。当下，美国经济面临的国内外错综复杂的形式何去何从，对中国经济乃至全球经济又会产生怎样的影响，如果有兴趣，可以结合本文的分析脉络（真的提到了相当多的经济学理论），从经济学的角度做一些自己的分析—来，期待你们的留言分享。
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