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导读
德国柴油车禁令或引发汽车业变革
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Last lap of luxury
最后的狂欢
本文英文部分选自经济学人Business版块
German cars have the most to lose from changes facing the auto industry
德国汽车在汽车产业变革中损失最大
Coddled by successive governments, the industry is dogged by dieselgate, lagging in electric vehicles and unsure about driverless cars
汽车产业受到德国历届政府的青睐，最近却饱受大众“柴油排放门”困扰，在电动车发展方面落后以及在无人驾驶方面也不确定（商业模式）
GERMAN carmakers have much in common with the self-confident road hogs who favour their vehicles. The cars they produce, with sleek design, doors that close with a satisfying thunk and roomy interiors swagged with leather and technology, are the dominant force at the upper end of the car market worldwide. At home, too, they are the purring engine of the economy; carmaking is by far Germany’s biggest industrial sector.
德国的汽车制造商与钟爱汽车的鲁莽驾驶员有着太多的共同点。他们生产出的汽车，线条流畅、关门声响满意、空间宽敞、真皮内饰，科技感十足，这些都使得德国汽车在世界高端汽车市场上占据主导地位。在德国国内，汽车是经济发展的引擎，到目前为止，汽车制造是德国第一大产业。
开关车门的声音能判断车身厚实？扯淡弓，请看链接
http://www.sohu.com/a/122798116_115737
But cars are changing. Electric power and autonomous vehicles will alter radically the way they are used. The difficulty in adapting threatens not only future revenues and profits at the big three—Daimler, BMW and Volkswagen (VW)–but also Germany’s status as a mean economic machine.
然而，汽车行业正在发生变化。电动和自动驾驶将在根本上改变汽车的使用方式（详见特别报道），调整的困难不仅威胁到戴姆勒，宝马以及大众汽车三大品牌的未来营业收入和利润，而且还威胁到德国作为主要经济机器的地位。
For now they are ahead. Brands built on unmatched quality mean four-fifths of the world’s premium cars have German badges. BMW and Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz both make over 2.2m cars a year. VW vies with Toyota and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance as the world’s biggest carmaker. It knocks out some 10m vehicles annually but relies on selling around 2m Audis and Porsches for 65% of its profits. The three companies’ total output of over 15m vehicles in 2016 represented around a fifth of the global total. “We are still the best car producers in the world”, brags Matthias Machnig, a deputy economy minister.
就目前而言，他们是领先的。德国汽车品牌质量无与伦比，世界上80%的高档车都是德国制造。宝马和戴姆勒旗下梅赛德斯-奔驰每年生产超过220万辆汽车。大众汽车与日本丰田汽车以及雷诺日产三菱联盟竞争世界上最大的汽车制造商。它每年轻松产出数千万辆汽车，但65％的销售利润来自约200万辆的奥迪和保时捷汽车。这三家公司在2016年的总产量超过1500万辆，占全球总销量的五分之一左右，经济部副部长马赫尼希（Matthias Machnig）自夸道：“我们依然是世界上最好的汽车制造商。”
Yet the industry has three big problems. The first is one of public trust. VW’s emissions scandal in 2015, when it admitted it installed software in cars to trick tests of emissions, and accusations last year of collusion on diesel standards on a vast scale, have damaged carmakers’ reputations and also their political backing. A reminder of the seriousness of the issue came on February 27th when a federal court in Leipzig said that authorities in Stuttgart and Düsseldorf can prohibit entry of diesel cars, a ruling relevant to some 70 German cities. The prospect of city bans across Europe on polluting cars is drawing closer. Anti-diesel sentiments are spreading beyond Germany, with other cities, such as Paris and London, imposing bans.
目前，汽车产业存在三大问题。第一个问题是公信度。2015年大众汽车尾气排放造假丑闻后，大众汽车承认在汽车上安装了软件，以欺骗尾气排放检测，以及去年大规模串通柴油标准的指控，这损害了汽车制造商的信誉，也损害了他们的政治支持。问题有多严重，让人想起了2月27日，莱比锡的联邦法院表示斯图加特（德国城市）和杜塞尔多夫（德国城市）当地政府可以禁止柴油汽车进入，这将影响70多个德国城市。欧洲各地针对污染汽车的城市禁令正日益临近。反对柴油的情绪正在向德国之外蔓延，巴黎、伦敦等其他城市也实施了禁令。
Second, the industry is woefully behind in designing and selling electric vehicles (EVs), which consumers are increasingly taking to. It is not the Germans, supposedly the leading innovators in cars, but Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi, a mass-market rival, that makes the world’s bestselling EV, the Nissan Leaf, sales of which have reached some 300,000 since the car’s launch in 2010. Chinese carmakers are streets ahead.
其次，在设计和销售电动汽车方面，德国汽车产业已经远远落后，而消费者正越来越倾向于使用电动汽车。世界上最畅销的电动汽车日产Leaf，不是汽车领域的领先创新者德国人，而是大众市场竞争对手雷诺-日产-三菱制造的。自2010推出以来，日产汽车的销量已经达到了30万辆。中国的汽车制造商们已经把对手甩了几条街了。
Third, the complex mechanical machines at which the country’s engineers excel are gradually transforming into (battery-powered) computers on wheels that will drive themselves. Superior mechanical-engineering technology has been the industry’s foundation, but there is no guarantee that it will lead in the electronic engineering and IT data-processing capabilities that will count most in future. Matthias Wissmann, president of the German Automobile Industry Association, concedes that such developments together mean his members face a “challenging moment”.
第三，德国的工程师们擅长的复杂机械设备正逐在向电动并且能够实现自驾驶的计算机转变。卓越的机械工程技术一直是业界的基础，但不能保证它将在电子工程和IT数据处理能力方面领先，而这在未来将是最重要的。德国汽车工业协会主席马提亚斯·魏斯曼(MatthiasWissmann)承认，这些发展共同意味着，协会成员们面临着一个“具有挑战性的时刻”。
The tyre tread of its carmakers has left a big impression on Germany. Cars are worldwide road-going adverts for the national brand. “Made in Germany” has become a guarantee of engineering prowess that has helped to promote the country’s exports of industrial equipment and a myriad of niche products from the Mittelstand of medium-sized firms. Around four-fifths of all cars made in Germany, worth €256bn ($283bn) in 2016, are exported. A workforce of around 800,000 is employed directly or by suppliers. And these are plum jobs, with high pay and lots of perks (including, for some, big company cars).
德国汽车制造商的轮胎胎面给德国留下了深刻的印象。汽车是世界范围内的国家品牌的公路广告。“德国制造”已经成为工程技术的保证，这有助于促进德国工业设备的出口，以及中型企业中的中小型企业的大量小众产品的出口。2016年，德国生产的汽车中有五分之四是出口的，价值2560亿欧元(合2830亿美元)。大约有80万名员工直接或由供应商雇佣金。这些都是肥差，薪水很高，而且有很多福利待遇(包括一些大公司的汽车)。
The industry’s success comes in part because the premium segment has long been growing faster than the car market as a whole. As motorists get richer they tend to trade up to a nicer set of wheels. The Germans have also cannily expanded what counts as a premium car. Once they specialised in big saloons. But a decade or so ago they put their badges on smaller, cheaper cars, such as BMW’s 1-Series or the Mercedes A-Class. For a little extra drivers could have a prestigious German marque, a step up from mass-market models, which ceded market share.
汽车产业之所以能取得成功，部分原因在于高端汽车市场的增长速度一直快于整个汽车市场。随着驾车者变得越来越富有，他们往往会换一辆更好的车。德国人还巧妙地扩大了对高档轿车定位的范围。他们一度专攻大型轿车。但大约10年前，他们在更小、更便宜的汽车上下功夫，比如宝马1系或奔驰A级轿车。只需要付出额外多一点点的钱，消费者就可以拥有一个享有盛誉的德国品牌，这向从曾经拱手相让的大众车型市场前进了一步。
The premium segment：高档车，头等舱
A set of wheels：车子
Big salooms：大型轿车
Scale and strong brands have kept competitors at bay. Toyota’s Lexus division and Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), a British-based Indian-owned firm with, not coincidentally, a former BMW executive in charge, have mounted the most successful challenge but are still minnows in comparison. They sold over 670,000 and 610,000 cars respectively in 2017. The premium brands of other carmakers have made even less of a dent. Only Tesla’s swish electric cars have given the Germans cause to lose sleep.
规模大和品牌强使得竞争对手陷入困境。丰田的雷克萨斯品牌和捷豹路虎（这是一家总部在英国的印度控股公司，且并非巧合地由宝马前高管掌管），他们两者都积累了很多成功战绩，但相对（德国汽车产业）来说仍是小虾米。2017年它们分别售出67万和61万辆汽车。而其它汽车制造商的高端品牌造成的影响更小。只有特斯拉的新型电动车使德国人难以入眠。
Keep at bay：勉强维持生计，陷入困境
The Institute for Economic Research (IFO) says that carmakers account for 13% of industrial value creation in Germany. Cars are a spur of the technological innovation for which the country is famed. In 2016 the industry spent nearly €22bn on research and development, over a third of Germany’s total. Serving the car industry is a key part of the businesses of industrial giants such as Bosch and Siemens.
德国经济研究院（IFO)表示，汽车制造商占德国制造行业价值的13%。众说周知对这个国家来说汽车是技术革新的动力。2016年汽车工业在研发上的投入近220亿欧元，超过德国研发总投入的三分之一。对于像博世和西门子这样的工业巨头来说，服务汽车工业是他们业务的核心部分。
Germany, company town for carmakers
德国，汽车制造商的企业城镇
This economic power has in turn given the car manufacturers plenty of political heft. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is heavily supported by the car companies; the Social Democrats by trade unions at the big three. Winfried Kretschmann, leader of Baden-Württemberg, home to many car producers, is from the Green Party. Even he has defended the long-term production of diesel cars.
这种经济实力反过来给汽车制造商带来了举足轻重的政治影响力。基督民主联盟（CDU，即德国总理默克尔所在政党)得到了汽车公司大力支持；而社会民主党则得到了三大汽车公司的工会支持。许多汽车制造商的家乡巴登符腾堡（Baden-Württemberg）的领导人温弗里德克雷茨曼(Winfried Kretschmann)，来自绿党。他甚至曾经为柴油汽车的长期制造进行过辩护。
Critics complain of a revolving door that has led carmakers to believe that they could get away with bad behaviour. A recent president of Germany, the previous chancellor and the current deputy chancellor have all served on VW’s board. Eckart von Klaeden, once a senior official in the CDU, became Daimler’s chief lobbyist in Berlin in 2013. Mr Wissmann, the boss of Germany’s leading car-lobbyist group, also held a senior position in the CDU, and was transport minister in the 1990s. And so the list goes on.
评论家抱怨称，政治“旋转门”使得汽车制造商相信他们可以从不良行为中脱身。近期的德国总统，前总理和现任副总理都曾在大众汽车董事会任职。冯·克莱登（Eckart von Klaeden）曾经是基督民主联盟的高级官员，2013年在柏林成为戴姆勒集团的“首席游说官”。作为德国领先的汽车说客集团（德国汽车工业代言机构德国汽车制造协会的会长）的老板，韦斯曼(Wissmann)先生也曾在基督民主联盟党中担任要职，并在上世纪九十年代担任交通部长。而这样的例子还很多。
1.旋转门现象：政府官员退休或离职之后下海进入企业、学校任职的现象，即许多落选的官员被著名的游说公司雇用，领取比在政府里任职高出许多倍的薪水。这些游说公司反过来又向客户收取高额佣金。同时，许多私人部门的人士又被政府吸纳，成为政府官员。政商间的这种双向流动，就是美国政治中著名的“旋转门”(revolving door)现象。
2.冯·克莱登（Eckart von Klaeden）：德国总理默克尔前任得力助手，2013年正式入职戴姆勒，因涉透露机密遭调查
http://auto.163.com/13/1114/10/9DKQO8OO00084TV1.html
These links have bestowed seeming advantages. “Free driving for free citizens” runs one German saying. Bosses and politicians flit between cities on autobahns with no speed limits. Germans pay no road tax. Tax policy keeps diesel substantially cheaper at the pump than petrol, nudging consumers to prefer big cars that rely on diesel engines to meet emissions regulations. Other tax rules also encourage companies to provide workers with premium cars and fuel allowances.
这些关系赋予了他们一些所谓的特殊待遇。正如德国的一句谚语：开车不花钱，自由任我行。大佬们和政客飞驰在城市间的高速公路上，完全不受速度的限制。德国公民也不用缴纳公路税。税收政策使得柴油在加油站的价格比汽油便宜得多，无形上推动了消费者更倾向于选择使用柴油发动机的大型车，从而满足排放标准（早期德国一致认为柴油技术是最清洁的，直到大众排放门丑闻出现）。其他的一些税收规定也鼓励企业给员工配备高档车并提供燃油补贴。
1.德国高速为什么不限速？
http://www.sohu.com/a/223353754_207713
2.德国告诉不收费吗？不是的。2005年1月1日，德国高速公路向载重卡车收取通行费，私家车估计在2019年开始收费，具体请看
http://www.sohu.com/a/131840097_658215
Germany’s current chancellor, Angela Merkel, has been only too willing to help. She pressed the EU to block an agreement on toughening carbon-dioxide emissions in 2013 (big German cars remain heavy emitters, although diesel produces less carbon dioxide than petrol). German politicians lobbied the European Commission to temper the severity of the latest set of emissions rules, for 2020 and beyond, announced in November. As Lutz Meier, a motor journalist in Berlin puts it, cars, and the policies that favour them, have helped to “determine our national psyche”.
德国现任总理安格拉·默克尔（Angela Merkel）也对此非常推崇。在2013年她对欧盟施压，阻止达成二氧化碳减排协议。（虽然柴油车排放的二氧化碳量低于汽油车，但是德国的大型车仍然是主要排放者）。在欧盟委员会11月发表关于2020年后适用的最新排放法则之前，德国政客们已成功游说其降低了标准程度。正如来自柏林的汽车专栏记者Lutz Meier所述，透过汽车以及相应的扶持政策我们可以看出一个国家的中心思想。
Yet consumers, especially younger ones, are increasingly doubtful about diesel-powered cars. The share of diesel sales has tumbled in Germany from a peak of 48% in 2012 to 33% this year and is plummeting elsewhere in Europe too. Germany’s car firms are heavily reliant on diesel sales in Europe; they make up well over a third of global sales for Daimler and for BMW and a quarter for VW. So if German cities do impose driving bans on diesel cars, in response to evidence that pollution threatens residents’ health, that could prove to be a “Fukushima moment” for the industry, suggests Christian Hochfeld, of Agora, a Berlin think-tank focused on energy and transport, referring to the fact that Germany’s nuclear business collapsed following the disaster in Japan in 2011. He also notes that resale values of diesel cars are tumbling. If carmakers are obliged to retrofit diesel vehicles with hardware to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions, as many people are now calling for, the cost to them would run to billions of euros in Germany alone.
然而，一些消费者，尤其是年轻群体对柴油汽车的疑虑也在日益增加。在德国，柴油车的市场份额从2012年的最高48%下降到了今年的33%，在欧洲其他地区也直线下降。欧洲市场占据了德国柴油汽车销量的很大比重,比如戴姆勒和宝马公司柴油汽车全球销量的三分之一以及大众集团柴油汽车全球销量的四分之一都来自于欧洲。来自Agora（德国一家专注于能源运输业的智囊公司）的克里斯蒂安霍.赫费尔德（Christian Hochfeld）认为，如果德国确定对柴油车实行禁令以应对居民免受恶劣空气污染威胁，那么这可能成为德国汽车产业的“福岛核电危机”，如同核能产业在2011年日本福岛发生核泄漏事故后的遭遇一样，瞬间衰败。并且，柴油车的转售价值也在大幅下跌。正如很多人正在呼吁的，汽车制造商被迫改造升级柴油车的硬件以减少氮氧化物排放，其耗费仅在德国就将达数十亿欧元。
Coddling of the industry by politicians is likely to decline. Mrs Merkel told bosses of the main car firms in September that “a lot of trust has been destroyed” in recent scandals. In November she warned the industry that it is running out of time to react to public worries over air pollution from their cars. As political opponents grow more outspoken in favour of bans—the Greens in parliament suggest sending petrol and diesel cars to the scrapyard nationwide by 2030—even Mrs Merkel’s ruling party is adjusting its position on diesel. Last week a junior minister suggested that temporary driving restrictions on some routes might be introduced in an effort to limit the worst episodes of urban smog.
政客们对汽车业的溺爱很有可能会减弱。9月默克尔总理同几家主要的汽车公司大佬们说道，近期的一些丑闻使得汽车业的公信力被摧毁。11月默克尔总理再次对汽车业提出警告，要求尽快对公众关于汽车造成空气污染的担忧作出回应。随着政治对手对于实行禁令的态度日益强硬（议会中的绿党提议到2030年将燃油车送到全国各地的废品堆场)，甚至连默克尔总理领导的执政党也改变了其对于柴油车的立场。上个星期一位副部长示意，为了缓解最为严重区域的城市雾霾，可能会在部分道路实行临时限行。
Political support in past years helped the industry in the short term but is widely felt to have contributed to complacency and to German manufacturers’ lagging position in the EV race. Getting the cold shoulder from government might be beneficial if it spurred firms to act faster in responding to changing consumer tastes, producing electric or cleaner vehicles and keeping up with changing demand from abroad. But carmakers will fret that they are losing support, and if the mesh of rules and incentives that keep consumers driving their national treasures change, it could have a sharply detrimental effect on the industry.
过去几年，政治支持在短期内给了汽车产业一些帮助，但是人们普遍认为这是导致行业自满以及德国制造商在电动汽车市场上落后的原因。在政府碰了一鼻子灰之后，假如这可以促进汽车制造商灵活应对消费者品味的变化、生产电动或者更清洁汽车，以及与时俱进的话，这可能更有利于汽车产业的发展。但是汽车制造商会担忧他们正在失去支持，而且如果那些让费者推动国家财富的规则和激励措施发生了改变，这将对整个行业产生严重的不利影响。
Electric shock
电动汽车冲击
Today it is Tesla that dominates the luxury market for EVs. This year JLR will be the first premium carmaker to start selling a direct competitor to Tesla’s Model S saloon, the I-Pace. Audi’s Q6 e-tron will arrive later in 2018 and Porsche’s Mission E will not arrive until 2019. Volkwagen’s and Daimler’s EVs are based on established internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and sell only in small quantities. In 2017 VW sold under 13,000 of its most popular all-electric model in Europe and Mercedes just over 5,000. BMW has done better with its “i” sub-brand, established in 2011. Global sales of the i3, a neat if pricey saloon, exceeded 31,000 in 2017 but sales have never matched the firm’s expectations.
如今，特斯拉一直在豪华电动汽车处于垄断地位。今年,捷豹路虎将成为第一家开始销售与特斯拉Model S车型直接竞争的I-Pace的豪华汽车制造商。奥迪Q6的电动汽车将于2018年晚些时候发布，而保时捷的Mission E将在2019年开始销售。大众和戴姆勒公司的电动汽车是建立在内燃机汽车的基础之上，而销路并不理想。在2017年大众公司最受欢迎的全电动系列汽车，在欧洲只销售了不到13000辆，而梅赛德斯只卖了5000多辆。宝马创立于2011年的子品牌“i”销售的更好一些。2017年紧凑型豪华轿车i3全球销量超过了3.1万辆，但是远远没有达到公司预期。
Tardy arrival has significant costs. Suppliers are not in place to support an entirely new industry. German expertise in making chemicals and electronics could have been deployed to produce a battery industry to feed a thriving electric-car market. “We have no one in Germany who really understands batteries, and we lack the value chain; we are very, very late”, laments Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, of the Centre for Automotive Research, in Essen.
太迟介入（电动汽车行业）使得成本更加昂贵。供应商在这个全新的行业里没有到位。德国擅长制造化学品和电子产品，这本可以应用于生产电池行业以应对日渐繁荣的电动汽车市场。德国杜伊斯堡-埃森大学CAR汽车中心负责人费迪南德·杜登霍夫（Ferdinand Dudenhöffer）悲观地说：“德国没有人真正了解电池，我们缺少价值链，我们开始得太迟太迟了。”
Further delays in switching to rapid development of electric cars would prove more costly for everyone, executives say. “The longer you wait, the more jobs you lose”, says Mr Dudenhöffer. Many are at stake. The IFO offers a startling estimate that 426,000 jobs among the main carmakers, plus another 130,000 jobs among suppliers, depend directly on making parts for ICE vehicles.
专家认为，进一步推迟转向飞速发展的电动汽车将使成本更加高昂。费迪南德·杜登霍夫认为：“等的越久，失去的工作越多”。很多企业正在面临危机。德国经济研究院（IFO)提供了一个令人惊讶的预估数字，几家主要汽车制造商提供了42.6万份工作，而为内燃机汽车直接生产零件的供应商，提供了大约13万份工作。
1.Tesla Model S:
Tesla model s是一款纯电动车型，预计于2012年年中投入销售，而它的竞争对手则直指宝马5系。该款车的设计者Franz von Holzhausen，曾在马自达北美分公司担任设计师。在Tesla汽车公司中，Model S拥有独一无二的底盘、车身、发动机以及能量储备系统。新车市场指导价64.11-97.93万元。
http://baike.sogou.com/v60029862.htm?fromTitle=特斯拉model+s
2.JLR I-Pace
I-PACE概念车搭载综合功率达298kW/700Nm的双电机系统和容量为90kWh锂电池组。其中锂离电子池共有36组，每组配备12个电池单元。这使其续航里程超过500km，充电15分钟可行驶100km，而0-100km/h加速时间约为4秒。
2017年4月18日，在2017上海车展开幕前夕，捷豹在中国首次发布了旗下的第一款纯电动跑车——“I-PACE概念车”。该车的量产版可能于2020年投产，并有望于同年上市，其上市后最大的竞争对手将是特斯拉Model X。
http://baike.sogou.com/v164624236.htm;jsessionid=E080096D1557F8FA20157F7B856C0C36
3.IFO: 是德国经济信息研究所注册协会的英文缩写，1949年成立于慕尼黑，是一家公益性的、独立的经济研究所，被称为德国政府智库之一。
http://www.baike.com/wiki/IFO%20景气指数
In theory, German carmakers have the skills and cash to respond quickly, by building high-quality hybrid, plug-in or all-electric cars. And they have ambitious plans to catch up. VW says up to 25% of its cars sold in 2025 will be electrified. But they will not come cheap. EVs are pricier to make than cars powered by an ICE. Daimler, which also says that up to 25% of its cars will be electrified by the same date, admits the shift will hit profits hard. Most carmakers are looking to spread the cost. Geely, a Chinese carmaker, announced on February 23rd that it had taken a 9.7% stake in Daimler, partly, it is thought, to forge an alliance to share the costs of developing EVs.
理论上，德国汽车制造商拥有技术和资金，能够迅速作出反应去制造高质量的混合动力、插电式或者纯电动汽车。而且他们为此还制定了雄心勃勃的计划。大众汽车公司表明2025年它所销售的汽车中25%是电动汽车，但是这些车不便宜。纯电动汽车要比内燃机驱动的汽车要贵。戴姆勒公司也声称到2025年它所销售的汽车中25%是电动汽车，它承认转型对利润冲击很大。大多数汽车制造商都希望分担成本。中国汽车制造商吉利（Geely）在2月23日宣布，它已经收购了戴姆勒公司有9.7%的股份，部分原因据说是为了建立同盟来分担研发电动车的成本。
Ultimately, self-driving machines
最终，自动驾驶汽车
Another problem is how to defend the carefully nurtured brands themselves from disruption. The reputation was built on superior engineering, ICEs and driving pleasure. Premium cars sell for more because they are on the cutting edge of developments in motoring. Antilock brakes, turbocharged (diesel) engines and a host of other whizzy extras all showed up first on German cars. In return carmakers can charge more and rake in fatter profits than their mass-market counterparts (margins average around 10 compared with 5% or below in the mass market).
另一个问题是如何保护那些精心培育的品牌免于破坏。车子的品牌是建立在高超的工程设计，内燃驱动和驾驶乐趣上的。豪华车售价更高是因为它们处于汽车技术发展的前沿。德国车最先配备制动防抱死系统，涡轮增压发动机和许多其他先进的技术，因此德国汽车商比大众市场其它对手收取更高的费用以及获取更多的利润（相比较大众市场的平均利润5%或者低于5%，它们是10%）
Yet desirable brands and mechanical brilliance may be much less use as carmaking is turned upside down. EVs, mobility services and autonomous vehicles are likely to be increasing sources of profits. Electric motors are largely standardised and may not command the same premium. German cars, engineered to please their discerning drivers, are unlikely to carry the same kudos when vehicles drive themselves. BMW, which advertised its cars as “The Ultimate Driving Machine” may have to rethink its marketing.
但是，当汽车制造完全被颠覆时，抢手的品牌和先进的机械技术或许并没什么卵用。电动汽车，灵活服务和自动驾驶或许才是增加利润的源头。电动汽车在很大程度上已经标准化了，或许不会获得（与燃油车）同样的利润。德国车的设计就是为了让精明的驾驶者感受到开车的乐趣，而在车辆自动驾驶时，不太可能得到同样的夸奖。宝马车商给自己的车做的广告是“终极驾驶机器”，现在或许不得不重新考虑它的营销策略。
German manufacturers, naturally, argue that there is plenty of scope for premium brands as the landscape transforms. The engine, after all, is a small part of a package that includes those plush interiors, smooth suspension and superior design, they note. That is because by using clever electronics, car manufacturers can tweak the performance of electric engines to give a premium experience, they say. To be on the safe side, BMW is even manufacturing its own electric engines. Passengers will still pay extra for a better driving experience even if they are no longer at the wheel, they contend.
当然，德国汽车制造商会争辨说当形式变革的时候，高端品牌具有极大的施展余地。他们指出，发动机毕竟只占车子很小一部分，还有豪华的内部装饰，平稳的悬挂以及更胜一筹的设计。他们声称，通过使用灵活的电子设备，汽车生产商可以微调电子发动机的性能给予驾驶者优秀的驾驶体验。为了安全起见，宝马甚至生产了自己的电动发动机。他们认为，即使乘客不再开车，他们仍然愿意支付额外的费用，从而获得更好的驾乘体验。
Like all carmakers, Daimler, VW and BMW are trying to reinvent themselves as “mobility providers”. They have pilot projects for services including sharing ones such as Daimler’s car2go and BMW’s DriveNow. In late 2016 VW created MOIA, a separate division dedicated to new mobility, including an investment in Gett, a ride-hailing firm, and plans for carpooling and shuttle services. It says MOIA will “generate a substantial share” of revenues by 2025. Yet it offers no details on how.
像所有汽车制造商一样，戴姆勒、大众和宝马正试图将自己改造成“移动供应商”。他们已经有了一些服务试点项目，包括汽车共享项目，例如戴姆勒的car2go以及宝马的DriveNow等。2016年年底大众汽车创建了MOIA，专注于提供“新出行方案”服务，包括投资网约车公司Gett，以及计划进军拼车和通勤车服务。它表示，到2025年MOIA将创造大量收入，但它没有提供实施的详细信息。
MOIA:大众汽车推出新品牌 MOIA，加快向移动出行服务转型
http://36kr.com/p/5058421.html
Yet even if demand for fancy vehicles is still there, the business model is highly uncertain.The convention of making money chiefly from selling cars (the industry also profits from after-sales services) will have to be augmented and perhaps eventually replaced by new sources of income. As car drivers switch from ownership to services, revenues from sales will fall. It is unclear how long it will take for robotaxis and shared services to hit car ownership but some forecasts suggest that private sales will fall dramatically once these emerge.
然而，即使对高档汽车的需求依然存在，商业模式仍很不确定。主要通过销售汽车以及售后赚钱的传统模式将不得不扩充，而且最终可能会被新的收入来源所取代。随着汽车司机从所有权转向服务，通过销售获得的收益将下降。目前尚不清楚，无人驾驶出租车和共享服务需要多长时间才能打击汽车保有量，但一些预测表明，一旦这些服务出现，个人销量将急剧下降。
Neither is it clear what carmakers reckon those models will be. As Dieter Zetsche, boss of Daimler, admits, he cannot say where the big returns will come in the future. “Maybe robotaxis and a sharing model…maybe something else”. He adds that for short journeys no one will much care about what brand of vehicle they are in. That leaves luxury robotaxis used on longer journeys, perhaps by wealthier commuters who are happy to pay more for added luxury and status.
汽车制造商也不清楚将会是怎么样的商业模式。正如戴姆勒的老板Dieter Zetsche所承认的那样，他不确定未来会哪里会带来丰厚的回报。 “也许是无人驾驶出租车和共享模式......也许是别的东西。”他还说，对于短途旅行而言，没有人会关心他们所使用的汽车品牌。这使得豪华无人驾驶出租车只能应用于较长的行程中，也许是被那些为了体现自己身份地位而乐意支付更多费用的富裕通勤者所青睐。
Even if the road to future profits is hard to make out, at least the Germans are more advanced in some areas than many competitors. Daimler, for example, is widely acknowledged as a technological leader in developing autonomous cars. All three have teamed up to buy HERE, a mapping company of the sort that is vital for self-driving. The Germans do have the luxury of “deep pockets, deep thinking and time”, notes Max Warburton of Bernstein, a bank. It may be that the last hold-outs who drive themselves are the rich and indulgent. If so, conventional luxury cars will still have some customers. But that could be an ever dwindling niche. The onus is on carmakers to prove they can successfully reinvent themselves—and continue to keep the German economy in the fast lane.
即使未来的盈利之路很难走通，但至少德国人在某些领域比许多竞争对手更先进。比如，众所周知，戴姆勒是自动驾驶汽车的技术领导者。德国三大豪华汽车制造商联手收购了HERE，这是一家为自动驾驶汽车提供地图数据服务的公司。德国银行的Max Warburton 指出，德国人确实拥有一些奢侈品：雄厚的财力、深刻的思想和充裕的时间。有可能最后一批坚持自己开车的是那些富有而放纵的人。如果是这样，传统的豪华车仍然会有一些客户。但那可能是一个不断缩小的小众市场。汽车制造商有责任证明他们能够成功改造自己，并继续保持德国经济的快速发展。
Here：Intel 入股 HERE 地图，这些厂商聚在一起是想搞什么？
https://www.huxiu.com/article/177206.html
翻译组：
Ellen, 女, 行政，经济学人爱好者
Ema, 女，外贸民工，经济学人爱好者
Tru ，女，金融民工，经济学人爱好者
Grace，女，建筑民工，经济学人爱好者
Louise，女，会计民工，经济学人爱好者
Button，男，自由职业，经济学人爱好者
Pamela，女，新闻民工，经济学人爱好者
校核组：
Lulu ，女，金融民工，经济学人爱好者
Vambie，女，互联网民工，经济学爱好者
Damon，男，钢管搬运工，经济学人爱好者
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观点 |评论|思考
上次在TE||Kaizen crisis 一文中主要讲到了“日本制造”危机，今天这篇文章主要讲的是“德国制造”危机，尤其是德国汽车面临的一系列问题，小编又一次看到了“中国制造”的机会。如今的中国已经不是昔日的中国，我们在很多领域已经走在了世界的前列，例如高铁，手机制造，航天航空等，再说到汽车产业，虽然国内在内燃机技术方面落后其国家一大截，但是电动汽车我们起步早，在电池以及电机技术上投入时间多，研发费用大，这在很大程度上已经超越了德国。
过去我们一直认为外国的月亮比国内圆，种种对于日本，德国产品的神化，买个马桶盖都要跑去日本，想想也真是挺可悲的，可是仔细想想，难道他们的产品天生就是那么完美的吗？当然不是，任何产品都有一个从弱到强的过程，而且我们的产品（Made in China）一直被诟病山寨、抄袭、模仿，然而，早期的德国、美国也是山寨英国，而日韩则通过山寨美国从而发家致富，小编以前和朋友扯淡吹牛的时候，经常会举一个例子，那就是众泰。它的成长之路可谓是饱受争议，都说它的车子山寨其他厂商的外型从而提高销量。而我认为创业之初简单的山寨模仿是可以接受的，因为没有钱哪来的钱投入研发，关键在于有了资本以后应该投入研发，自主创新，树立品牌，这才能把企业做好，做出真正的"中国制造“.而有了资本积累以后，还是山寨别人，那这个企业很难有长足的发展。
说到这里，不得不说说小米，有些人说的他的成长模式模仿苹果，产品（风扇，空气净化器等）抄袭日本等等，但是我想说的是（在硬件领域）产品如果容易被抄袭，那么只能说明你的产品不够好，好的产品的行业壁垒必定是非常高的。据说小米过段时间就要上市了， 小编相信小米一定会成为”中国制造
“的一张靓丽名片。让我们拭目以待！
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