对B.1.1.7株SARS-CoV-2在英格兰的传播力和影响进行估计

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

作者：Nicholas G. Davies , Sam Abbott , Rosanna C. Barnard , Christopher I. Jarvis , Adam J. Kucharski , James D. Munday , Carl A. B. Pearson , Timothy W. Russell , Damien C. Tully , Alex D. Washburne , Tom Wenseleers , Amy Gimma , William Waites , Kerry L. M. Wong , Kevin van Zandvoort , Justin D. Silverman , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Ruth Keogh , Rosalind M. Eggo , Sebastian Funk , Mark Jit , Katherine E. Atkins , W. John Edmunds

Science   2021/04/09

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

（导读 郭怿暄）SARS-CoV-2变异株VOC 202012/01（B.1.1.7株）首先出现于英国东南部并迅速传播。本研究利用多种统计和动态建模方法，发现该变异相比已存有变异的传染数升高43-90%。两株动态传染模型拟合显示VOC 202012/01将会导致COVID-19病例再次大量出现。如果没有严格的控制措施，2021年上半年英国COVID-19住院和死亡数目将超过2020年。该病毒株已经扩散到全球，在丹麦、瑞士和美国具有相似的传染数增加。