打开APP
userphoto
未登录

开通VIP,畅享免费电子书等14项超值服

开通VIP
20230712(格多巴卡):施洛斯对我影响比较大的一些方面

我是格雷厄姆的忠实追随者,基本的投资理念主要来自格雷厄姆和价投早期读的我网名中暗含的几位投资家—格雷厄姆、多尔西、巴菲特和卡拉曼—的著作。但后来读施洛斯合集,对我的影响还是比较大的,主要有以下几个方面:

1、追求一个合理的、你可以做到的收益率,所以,我卖出比较随意,只要感觉能让我获得一个比较满意的年化收益率即可,并不再追求价值实现和翻番或50%的利润率,也就是我说的画好自己的收益率曲线即可。他的原话是:I just want to grow 15% to 20% a year, and my average is 17%. I'll take my profit when it comes.

2、尽量获得一个较低的成本,要达到这个目标,一是安全边际,二是摊薄成本。所以,我的股票,一般很少有亏损达到25%以上的。根据股票的质量和股价的活跃程度,一般质量较好的低风险股票,账面亏损幅度会控制在10%以内,或很活跃的、高风险股票,控制在25%以内。他的原话是: As the saying goes, a stock well bought is half sold.

3、尽可能让投资变得简单,或说,投资那些评估起来比较简单的股票。(当然,也会尝试一些复杂一点的,但一般不会上很高的仓位。这其实也是格雷厄姆为什么投资NET-NET股票的原因,买入净现金资产高于市值的股票,然后让管理层分红,几乎是无风险。)介绍他的人评价他:He tried to keep things simple.

4、买入观察仓,慢慢了解不熟悉的股票,只有拥有了股票,你才会真正关注它。他的原话是:But we may buy a little bit of a stock, to get our feet wet, and get a feeling for it. 以及另外一句话:One of the great sayings is that you never really know all about a stock until you own it. 以及:You're looking at the stock originally as an outsider and you don't get emotionally involved. After you get into it, that changes. You see the flaws much more clearly. 还有:Of course, after you've owned something for awhile, you find that there are a lot of opportunities you didn't see at first.

5、不追求卖在最高处,并能坦然处之。这是如何看待金钱的问题,你越不重视它,越容易拥有它。他的原话是:But people have to be very humble about money if they want to keep it.

6、更不重视分析未来,未来极难预测。他的原话是:But you never know how things are going to turn out. It could have gone the other way.

7、更能坦然面对下跌,如果有了充分准备,股票下跌幅度出乎意料也是非常正常的,所以有时候我会说股票价格的下跌不是买入者或持有者的错,而是卖出者的错。他有这样一句话:It went down to $11-1/2 at one point didn't mean that it was a bad investment at $16.

8、对格雷厄姆买NET-NET有更深的理解,因为,在他那个时代,那是最容易、最简单的方法,如果格雷厄姆活到现在,且掌握着数百亿美元的资金,他也许会投资好生意。施洛斯是这么说的:If he were alive today and couldn't find working capital stocks, he'd very likely be looking around for something else.

9、卖出后,股票价格再上涨很多倍,也能泰然处之。我应该写过(?)一篇小文章谈施洛斯卖出后又涨了很多的股票,有很多股票在他卖出后又上涨很多倍。他曾经说:But sometimes you have to take advantage of the opportunity to sell and then say OK, it'll go higher. 以及:You know, you never get the high or you never get the low. 还给出过自己卖飞的股票实例,如:We bought a lot of it at 12-1/2. Oh, this was great. And we doubled our money and we sold it at something like $28, $30 a share and that was pretty good in two years. When next I looked it was $70 a share.

10、买入后,对于二线公司的负面信息有一定的抵抗能力。施洛斯认为你不能离这种公司太近,否则你就不敢买入,有一次他举例说:If we'd lived in Cleveland, we probably wouldn't have bought it because we would have been too close to all the bad things.

11、持股更有耐心,施洛斯的持仓更新一遍大概需要4年的时间,那么有些股票持有到6年应该不是令人奇怪的事情。他还说过:Also, many stocks we buy take years to work out. They don't go up right away after you buy them. 以及:There's a life cycle to these things.

12、买入前会反复看K线,复权和不复权都看,以此保证买入价格不会太高。1994年给出的16条中的第10条是这样写的:When buying a stock, I found it helpful to buy near the low of past few years. A stock may go as high as 125 and decline to 60 and you think it attractive. 3 years before the stock sold at 20 which shows that there is vulnerability in it.

13、了解自己的优缺点,他多次说过要了解自己的优缺点,并说巴菲特能做的,自己做不了,因为巴菲特在看人和理解生意方面非常人能比。但实际上,施洛斯谈起一些生意也头头是道。他曾经这样评价巴菲特:But Warren is a very good judge of people and he's a very good judge of businesses. And what Warren does is fine. It's just that it's not our--we just really can't do it that way and find five businesses that he understands, and most of them are financial businesses, and he's very good at it. But you've got to know your limitations.

14、收益可以不多,但必须要有收益。他认为格雷厄姆的方法就是持续地让自己的资产增值,但每次又不那么显著,这种方法的目的就是每隔一段时间就让你的资产翻一次番。他说:The thing about Ben Graham's approach is that you made money but not a great deal of money. You would double your money and then get out of the stock. His focus was on doubling your money and that's it.

15、在有一定利润后慢慢卖出,以往也不是一次卖出,但是,在读了施洛斯以后,目的性更强一些。他在一次访谈中这样说道:we used to do that we buy stocks on the way down and sell them on the way up.

总之,施洛斯合集是以访谈为主,其中有着大量的个人经历和心路历程,所以,施洛斯合集可以与那些与投资相关的专业书籍结合着读,互为补充,这样可以让自己获得更丰富的投资知识,也有利于心理建设,如他在一次访谈中谈到的那位一到股市低迷时就紧张到给他打电话的那位,对于如何正确看待低迷的股市,如何进行心理建设,还是非常重要的。

非常感谢这位老人的实践和总结,我在他身上受益匪浅。

散户老雷07-12 08:43 · 江苏
@我愚人 :

这些术为主,也重要。他的核心,我觉得是买资产负债表,他对生意很懂。一个人从1945~2010年,60+年专注浸淫于选股,看过的生意不计其数。便宜的低负债生意,辅以分散买入,分批卖出,他的方法容错性很强,我之前定义他是一种标准的“弱者模式”。他实际上在重复格雷厄姆的投资方法,这个方法理论上无敌。

收起

我也这么认为,这个方法实际上也是无敌的。这个方法最大的困难是非常辛苦,施洛斯持股100多家,我估计他分析研究跟踪的股票有1000多家,就是天天看财报,这得有非常大的毅力坚持。

本站仅提供存储服务,所有内容均由用户发布,如发现有害或侵权内容,请点击举报
打开APP,阅读全文并永久保存 查看更多类似文章
猜你喜欢
类似文章
【热】打开小程序,算一算2024你的财运
——四读《沃尔特·施洛斯资料集》
WithEric: 1989:《杰出投资人文摘》采访实录 (备注:这是施洛斯父子一起接受《文摘》的采...
低估值策略大师之施洛斯
施洛斯吃葡萄,巴菲特喝拉菲
沃尔特·施洛斯专辑
沃尔特·施洛斯揭示价值投资的本质
更多类似文章 >>
生活服务
热点新闻
分享 收藏 导长图 关注 下载文章
绑定账号成功
后续可登录账号畅享VIP特权!
如果VIP功能使用有故障,
可点击这里联系客服!

联系客服