例如,我父亲和大多数他的同龄人经历了大萧条和二战,他们从未想到二战后经济会出现繁荣,因为这不同于(而非类似于)他们的经历。由于自身的经历,他们不会考虑借款,也不会把辛苦攒下的积蓄投入股市,因此我们不难理解他们错过了从美国经济繁荣中获利的机会。同样,我也可以理解,在几十年后,一些人通过大肆借款进行投机。因为他们只经历过债务融资拉动的经济繁荣,从未经历过经济萧条和战争,所以他们认为未来不会出现经济萧条和战争。
如果你想了解更多关于我们现在所处的阶段以及事物是如何运作的,你可以在京东购买我的新书《原则:应对变化中的世界秩序》(点击“阅读原文”)。
For example, my dad and most of his peers who went through the Great Depression and World War II never imagined the post-war economic boom because it was more different from than similar to what they had experienced. I understand why, given those experiences, they wouldn’t think of borrowing and putting their hard-earned savings into the stock market, so it’s understandable that they missed out on profiting from the boom. Similarly, I understand why, decades later, those who only experienced debt-financed booms and never experienced depression and war would borrow a lot in order to speculate and would consider depression and war implausible.
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