每日原则：要记住人一般不会有太大改变

对于一两年这样较短的时间来说尤其如此。然而多数人都希望假设，一个人如果做错了事，他会吸取教训和做出改变。这未免太天真了。最好假定他们不会改变，除非有足够强的证据表明他们将会如此。

眼见为实，假想为虚。

This is especially true over short periods of time like a year or two, yet most people want to assume that when someone does something wrong the person will learn the lesson and change. That’s naive. It is best to assume that they won’t change unless there is good evidence to the contrary that they will. It’s better to bet on changes you have seen than those you hope for.