巴菲特并不厌恶零售企业,相反,零售是Berkshire的所有业务中,与manufacturing, retailing, service and finance businesses等并列的重要业务。Berkshire的零售业务主要包括家居(家具)卖场和珠宝零售,后来把喜诗糖果(See’s Candies)也并入了零售业。
巴菲特对家居卖场情有独钟,自1983年首次收购了Nebraska Furniture Mart后,1995-1998年间,又一连串收购了多个家居卖场,分别是R.C. Willey Home Furnishings (1995), Star Furniture (1997)和Jordan's(1998),使Berkshire旗下的家居卖场业务成为全美最大。
巴菲特对沃尔玛一直非常欣赏和尊敬,并连续多年在《财富》杂志“最受尊敬企业”评选中把票投给了沃尔玛(“For several years, I have given my vote to Wal-Mart in the ballotingfor Fortune Magazine’s “Most Admired” list.”)。2003年,巴菲特收购了沃尔玛的批发和分销业务部门McLane,而且没有做尽职调查,这完全是基于巴菲特对沃尔玛的信任(“We knew everything would be exactly as Wal-Mart said it would be –and it was.”)。2005年巴菲特开始建仓沃尔玛,截至2011年,Berkshire持有沃尔玛1.1%的股份,市值23.33亿美元。另外,巴菲特还在2007年开始建仓Tesco,截至2011年,Berkshire持有Tesco 3.6%的股份,市值18.27亿美元。
1995年,Berkshire收购了家居卖场R.C. Willey Home Furnishings之后,巴菲特在当年致股东的信中描述了这场收购的过程和原因后,写下了以下这段话:Retailing is a tough business. During my investment career, I have watched a large number of retailers enjoy terrific growth and superb returns on equity for a period, and then suddenly nosedive, often all the way into bankruptcy. This shooting-star phenomenon is far more common in retailing than it is in manufacturing or service businesses. In part, this is because a retailer must stay smart, day after day. Your competitor is always copying and then topping whatever you do. Shoppers are meanwhile beckoned in every conceivable way to try a stream of new merchants. In retailing, to coast is to fail.(零售业的经营相当不易,在我个人的投资生涯中,我见过很多零售企业曾经拥有极高的增长率和净资产回报率,但之后却突然出现业绩跳水,甚至破产倒闭的情况。零售行业这种风光一时的“流星现象”远比一般制造业或服务业普遍,部分原因是零售业者必须时时保持聪明,因为你的竞争对手随时准备抄袭你的做法,然后超越你。同时新的竞争者也不断加入,用尽各种办法撬走你的客户。在零售业,业绩一旦下滑就注定失败。)
因为以上这段话,使投资者对零售业产生了很大的疑虑。不过,巴菲特这一段话的意思并非是说零售企业不值得投资,或者自己买R.C. Willey买错了,而是说像零售业这种必须时时保持聪明的行业里,企业有一个聪明的经营者是必须的,如果经营者懈怠、得过且过,则企业必定会垮。接下去巴菲特说的是,他当年买的两个零售企业(另一家是珠宝零售商)的CEO都非常棒,他们酷爱竞争并在长期的竞争中保持胜绩(The two retailing businesses we purchased this year are blessed with terrific managers who love to compete and have done so successfully for decades.)。而结论当然是,他当年买的这两个零售企业,都是符合零售企业投资标准的。
类似得了便宜还卖乖的说法,还屡屡出现在巴菲特对其主业——保险业的抱怨中。他说:The insurance industry is cursed with a set of dismal economic characteristics that make for a poor long-term outlook: hundreds of competitors, ease of entry, and a product that cannot be differentiated in any meaningful way. In such a commodity-like business, only a very low-cost operator or someone operating in a protected, and usually small, niche can sustain high profitability levels. (保险业竞争者众多,门槛很低,产品无法差异化,只有少数成本很低或者找到“利基”的企业才能保持较高的赢利水平。)
显然,巴菲特没有任何要放弃保险业这一核心业务的想法,而且要继续把保险业作为主要的赢利来源,原因是保险业够大,Berkshire的保险业务有竞争优势和全球范围内的竞争力。(Charlie and I continue to like the insurance business, which we expect to be our main source of earnings for decades to come. The industry is huge; in certain sectors we can compete world-wide; and Berkshire possesses an important competitive advantage.)
五、巴菲特投资零售业的逻辑
巴菲特关于家居卖场NFM和珠宝零售商Borsheim's优势的描述,体现了他零售业的投资逻辑: They buy brilliantly, they operate at expense ratios competitors don’t even dream about, and they then pass on to their customers much of the savings. It’s the ideal business - one built upon exceptional value to the customer that in turn translates into exceptional economics for its owners. (买的便宜,远比竞争对手低的成本收入比,然后把节省下来的成本让利给消费者。这就是最理想的生意——在给客户创造额外的价值的基础上,给股东创造额外的收益。)
Because of the huge volume it does at one location, the store can maintain an enormous selection across all price ranges. For the same reason, it can hold its expense ratio to about one-third that prevailing at jewelry stores offering comparable merchandise. The store's tight control of expenses, accompanied by its unusual buying power, enable it to offer prices far lower than those of other jewelers. These prices, in turn, generate even more volume, and so the circle goes 'round and 'round. (因为销售量够大,所以能保持品种多样,并把成本收入比控制在很低的水平。成本控制加上采购议价能力,使它有能力保持低价,低价又能带来更高的销售量,如此形成良性循环。)
他进一步总结了家居卖场NFM和珠宝零售商Borsheim's的成功之处:NFM and Borsheim's follow precisely the same formula for success: (1) unparalleled depth and breadth of merchandise at one location; (2) the lowest operating costs in the business; (3) the shrewdest of buying, made possible in part by the huge volumes purchased; (4) gross margins, and therefore prices, far below competitors'; and (5) friendly personalized service with family members on hand at all times. (远比对手丰富的品类;极低的运营成本;买的便宜[买的便宜的原因,部分是因为采购规模,除此外还有别的原因];比竞争对手低的售价和毛利;友好的、个性化的服务。)
总结一句话,巴菲特投资零售企业的逻辑是,选择那些因运营成本低而具备持续给消费者让利能力的企业(low-cost operation that allows the business to regularly offer customers the best values)。从这个角度看,国美的销售规模与苏宁相当,但毛利率低于苏宁(根据苏宁、国美2011年报,苏宁的综合毛利率为19.23%,国美为18.15%,略低于苏宁),费用率高于苏宁(根据苏宁、国美2011年报,苏宁的费用率为11.95%,国美为14.27%,高于苏宁),不具备成本优势,这就注定了无论有没有黄光裕,国美都难以在长期竞争中胜出。网络购物也不是通过“革命”,而是通过进一步降低成本、提高效率来取得竞争优势的。京东有没有成本优势,要看它跟易购相比是否存在成本优势,否则,即使赢了苏宁的线下实体店,也不一定赢得了苏宁的线上业务。
巴菲特曾经这样比较像零售这样的竞争性行业和有“特许经营权”的行业的区别: In contrast to this have-to-be-smart-every-day business, there is what I call the have-to-be-smart-once business. For example, if you were smart enough to buy a network TV station very early in the game, you could put in a shiftless and backward nephew to run things, and the business would still do well for decades. You'd do far better, of course, if you put in Tom Murphy, but you could stay comfortably in the black without him. For a retailer, hiring that nephew would be an express ticket to bankruptcy. (零售行业需要时时保持聪明,否则迟早会垮掉。还有一些行业,只要买入时做对一次决定就可以了,例如,像有线电视台这种有“特许经营权”的行业,买入之后随便交给一个得过且过的亲戚去管,也能经营好。)
In contrast, "a business" earns exceptional profits only if it is the low-cost operator or if supply of its product or service is tight. Tightness in supply usually does not last long. With superior management, a company may maintain its status as a low-cost operator for a much longer time, but even then unceasingly faces the possibility of competitive attack. And a business, unlike a franchise, can be killed by poor management. (竞争性行业企业只有在成本较竞争者低,或者产品或服务供给不足时,才能获得高回报。供给不足不能持续,卓越的管理可以使低成本保持很长的时间,但也会面临持续不断的竞争。若管理不当,则可能招致致命的风险。)
An economic franchise arises from a product or service that: (1) is needed or desired; (2) is thought by its customers to have no close substitute and; (3) is not subject to price regulation. The existence of all three conditions will be demonstrated by a company's ability to regularly price its product or service aggressively and thereby to earn high rates of return on capital. Moreover, franchises can tolerate mis-management. Inept managers may diminish a franchise's profitability, but they cannot inflict mortal damage. (“特许经营权”存在于那些产品或者服务是必需的或者很受欢迎、没有替代产品、价格不受管制的企业中。有“特许经营权”的企业可以持续地提价,获取更高的回报,平庸的管理可能侵蚀其盈利能力,但不会招致致命的风险。)