刊物介绍
本文作者:许鸿轩
本文审校:葛健豪
本文首发于2022年4月13日
作者:许鸿轩
获得澳国立国际关系学本科学位
海国图智研究院研究助理
引言
来源:AFP via Getty Images
背景
2021年度美国原油及原油产品进口量占比
来源:The Wall Street Journal
因此,白宫不得不通过与世界各国政府的外交活动来稳定住不断上涨的能源价格,而其中主要包括的国家是委内瑞拉和中东的石油王国等与美国关系紧张的国家。美国曾因人权、民主等问题制裁或疏远这些国家,而现在似乎又为了填补制裁俄罗斯留下的能源缺口而试图与这些国家缓解关系。但本文认为,美国向委内瑞拉等国伸出的橄榄枝并非仅仅因为短期石油利益,而是借短期石油紧缺之势推动与这些国家之间争端的推进或解决。下文将依次分析近期美国与委内瑞拉、伊朗和沙特的交涉来阐明这一观点。
委内瑞拉:石油和民主不是非此即彼
共和党参议员谴责华盛顿与马杜罗政府的会谈
来源:Twitter
然而事实上,当前委内瑞拉填补石油供应缺口的能力十分有限,所谓的短期石油利益可能并不存在。尽管在2019年被列入黑名单之前,委内瑞拉曾每天向美国输送约58万桶石油,但在目前失修的状态下,它每天能产出的油量仅仅不到20万桶。而如果要重建委内瑞拉的石油产能——将产量提高到每天200万桶,据经济学家兼石油专家弗朗西斯科-莫纳尔迪(Francisco Monaldi)称,大约需要120亿美元的投资。但在马杜罗掌权的情况下,上百亿美元的投资几乎不可能实现。因此短期内,委内瑞拉的石油供给很难恢复,杯水车薪的石油供应远远不足以让美国将其民主扩散的愿景放在天平的另一端。
委内瑞拉2008-2021年度石油产量变化
来源:OPEC
伊朗:比石油更紧急的协议
来源:Associated Press
来源:Carlos Barria
沙特:石油是一针缓和剂
来源:Arabia Policy
结语
参考文献
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