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【双语阅读】Bananas could replace potatoes in warming world

Bananas could replace potatoes in warming world

Climate change could lead to crops from the banana family becoming a critical food source for millions of people, a new report says.

Researchers from the CGIAR agricultural partnership say the fruit might replace potatoes in some developing countries.

Cassava and the little-known cowpea plant could be much more important food crops as temperatures rise.

People will have to adapt to new and varied menus as traditional crops struggle, say the authors.

Responding to a request from the United Nations' committee on world food security, a group of experts in the field looked at the projected effects of climate change on 22 of the world's most important agricultural commodities.

Blooming bananas

They predict that the world's three biggest crops in terms of calories provided - maize, rice and wheat - will decrease in many developing countries.

They suggest that the potato, which grows best in cooler climates, could also suffer as temperatures increase and weather becomes more volatile.

The authors argue that these changes "could provide an opening for cultivating certain varieties of bananas" at higher altitudes, even in those places that currently grow potatoes.

Dr Philip Thornton is one of those behind the report. He told BBC News that while bananas and plantains also have limiting factors, they may be a good substitute for potatoes in certain locations.

"It's not necessarily a silver bullet, but there may be places where as temperatures increase, bananas might be one option that small-holders could start to look at."

The report describes wheat as the world's most important plant-derived protein and calorie source.

But according to this research, wheat will face a difficult future in the developing world, where higher prices for cotton, maize and soybeans have pushed wheat to marginal land, making it more vulnerable to stresses induced by climate change.

One substitute, especially in South Asia, could be cassava - which is known to be tolerant to a range of climate stresses.

But how easy will it be to get people to adjust to new crops and new diets?

Bruce Campbell is programme director of the Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security research group ( CCAFS) which co-ordinates work among leading institutions around the world. He told BBC News that the types of changes that will happen in the future have already happened in the past.

Protein under pressure

"Two decades ago there was almost no rice consumption in certain areas of Africa, now there is. People have changed because of the pricing: it's easier to get, it's easier to cook. I think those sort of shifts do occur and I think they will in future."

One of the big concerns among researchers is how to tackle the need for protein in the diet. Soybeans are one of the most common sources but are very susceptible to temperature changes.

The scientists say that the cowpea, which is known in sub-Saharan Africa as the "poor man's meat" is drought-tolerant and prefers warmer weather and could be a reasonable alternative to soya. The vines of the cowpea can also be used as a feed for livestock.

In some countries, including Nigeria and Niger, farmers have already moved away from cotton production to growing cowpeas.

There are also likely to be developments in animal protein sources says the report, including a shift to smaller livestock.

"This is an example of something that's happening already, " said Dr Campbell. "There's been quite a shift from cattle keeping to goat keeping in southern Africa in face of droughts - when the farmers see the problems they are having with production, they really are willing to shift.

"Change is really possible. It's not just a crazy notion."

气候变暖香蕉将代替土豆成为重要食物来源

    国际农业研究磋商组织研究人员表示,在发展中国家香蕉将可能取代土豆。

    随着气温的上升,木薯和鲜为人知的豇豆植物将会成为更重要的食物。

    作者称,随着传统农作物的相互竞争,人们将不得不去适应新的不同种类的菜单。

    受联合国世界食品安全委员会的邀请,一个专家团队评估了气候变化对世界上22种重要农产品的影响。

    遍地开花的香蕉

    就所提供的热量而言,专家们预测世界排名前三的农作物——玉米、大米、小麦将会在发展中国家有所减少。

    研究发现,土豆适宜生长在凉爽的气候下,也能忍受气温的升高和越来越反复无常的天气.

    作者认为,这些改变“能够为培育特定种类的香蕉提供一个先例”在高海拔地区,尽管这些地区目前仍然种植着土豆。

    木薯能够满足南亚的粮食需求。

    菲利普·索顿教授同意这一观点。他告诉记者,虽然香蕉和大蕉的种植也有受限因素,但在某些地区它们是土豆最好的代替品。

    索顿教授说:“这不一定是个良方,但是对于那些气温上升的地区,香蕉是低收入者能够考虑的一个选择。”

    这个报告称,小麦是世界上最重要的植物蛋白和卡路里来源。

    但是研究表明,在发展中国家小麦的前途堪忧。在这些地区,随着棉花、玉米和大豆的价格不断的上升,迫使小麦的种植趋向边际用地,使得它在面对气候变化所产生的压力时更加脆弱。

    木薯能够成为一个替代品,尤其是在南亚地区,它被认为能够适应一系列气候变化。

    但是人们能够容易的适应新的农作物和新的饮食习惯吗?

    布鲁斯·坎贝尔是气候变化,农业和粮食安全研究小组项目的主管,他们领导协调世界各个研究机构的工作。他告诉记者在未来将要发生的气候变化类型在过去已经发生了。

    蛋白质也面临压力

    布鲁斯·坎贝尔说:“20年前,在非洲一些地方根本没有人吃大米,但是现在有了。因为价格关系,人们的饮食习惯已经有了改变:大米更容易买到,也更容易烹饪。我认为这类变化的确发生了,而且在将来也会发生。”

    如何在日常饮食获取人体所需要的蛋白质是研究人员担忧的一个大问题。大豆是人们获取蛋白质的主要来源,但是它却容易受到温度变化的影响。

    在撒哈拉沙漠以南的地区,豇豆被视为“穷人的肉食”,科学家研究发现豇豆耐旱喜高温,能够成为大豆的代替品。豇豆的藤蔓也常常被当作喂养家禽的饲料。

    包括尼日尼亚和尼日尔在内的一些国家,农民们已经放弃了棉花生产转而开始种植豇豆了。

    研究表明,从动物身上获取蛋白质是可行的,包括小型家禽。

    坎贝尔博士说:“这类实例已经发生。在南非,由于长期干旱,当人们发现生产方面面临严重问题时,他们十分乐意转变他们的生产方式——人们已经从养牛开始转向养羊。”

    “变革是有可能的,这不仅仅是一个疯狂的念想。”

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