Does the president have a good shrink on the White House staff?
He'd better. Because the president's 'soak the rich' budget is betting that the administration has a pretty good handle on the psychology of 'wealthy' Americans。
America's 'wealthy' pay 60% of the nation's income taxes. And the Obama budget sees them earning, spending, investing and paying taxes as they have in the past。
That's the only way the Obama team can justify a budget that forecasts double-digit growth rates in income tax receipts through 2012. The same team is forecasting GDP growth rates twice that of many private forecasts。
But it seems awfully unlikely that the 'wealthy' will cooperate with Obama. They've already cut back. And now, his Robin Hood crusade will encourage them to pull back even further。
How do I know？ Well, take one random example。
Me。
In recent months, I took my guitar lessons down from two hours a week to one. I axed the daily subscription to the New York Times - it's free online, after all。
And my wife and I did not see one movie that was nominated for the best picture Oscar. A babysitter for a night out in New York runs 75 bucks。
Of course, this is just reflexive 'recession' behavior - little adjustments to make me feel better about my pummeling in the stock market。
But going forward, I see little to encourage me to change my behavior and spend or invest more. All I see is uncertainty。
New York state is in dire straits. My real estate taxes have just skyrocketed. The New York legislature is bandying about a 'millionaire's tax' on families that make $250,000 a year. And now there is uncertainty over the interest deductibility on my jumbo mortgage。
Even though I know perfectly well that the Obama tax hikes don't kick in until 2011, the prospect of paying more tomorrow shapes my behavior today. That's a lesson straight from Psych 101。
Another lesson is that words matter. All the ferocious antibusiness rhetoric pouring out of Washington is putting me in a deep funk。
So far, I've lost about 25% on my stock market investments since Obama's election. Why would I put in any more money when the president and Congress are at war with Wall Street?
Where would I invest anyway?
Safe-haven stocks? In an economy where Washington touches everything, there are no 'safe havens.' Just look at the 13% fall in drug stocks since Obama's speech on Tuesday。
And when making money gets a bad rap in society, the inclination of the 'wealthy' is to pull way back。
I look at my 'wealthy' friends. They consider themselves upper middle class, but in Obama's America they don't exist anymore. There are only 'working families' and the 'wealthy,' so they get lumped in with Warren Buffett。
Everyday, these 'wealthy' people ask themselves the questions that determine the fate of the economy。
Why donate to the museum or cancer charity this year？ Why go to Philadelphia for the three-day weekend？ How much longer can we afford to send the kids to private school？
In the finance industry states - New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts - there are just under 900,000 'wealthy' households earning more than $200,000 a year。
Their incomes have been decimated by Wall Street's collapse. And now they're scared of the future。
The Obama budget needs these households. After all, these 900,000 represent about a quarter of all the 'wealthy' households in the U.S。
But like many of my friends and I, these people are putting their wallets away and hunkering down for years of economic malaise。
联系客服
