Problem D: Time to leave the Louvre
The increasing number of terror attacks in France[1] requires a review of the emergency evacuation plans at many popular destinations.(bk1) Your ICM team is helping to design evacuation plans at the Louvre in Paris, France.(spm1) In general, the goal of evacuation is to have all occupants leave the building as quickly and safely as possible.(imp1) Upon notification of a required evacuation, individuals egress to and through an optimal exit in order to empty the building as quickly as possible.(imp1’)
The Louvre is one of the world’s largest and most visited art museum, receiving more than 8.1 million visitors in 2017[2].(bk2) The number of guests in the museum varies throughout the day and year, which provides challenges in planning for regular movement within the museum.(imp2) The diversity of visitors -- speaking a variety of languages, groups traveling together, and disabled visitors -- makes evacuation in an emergency even more challenging.(imp3)
The Louvre has five floors, two of which are underground.
Figure 1: Floor plan of Louvre[3]
The 380,000 exhibits located on these five floors cover approximately 72,735 square meters, with building wings as long as 480 meters or 5 city blocks[3].(rsc1) The pyramid entrance is the main and most used public entrance to the museum. However, there are also three other entrances usually reserved for groups and individuals with museum memberships: the Passage Richelieu entrance, the Carrousel du Louvre entrance, and the Portes Des Lions entrance(rsc2). The Louvre has an online application, “Affluences” (https://www.affluences.com/louvre.php), that provides real-time updates on the estimated waiting time at each of these entrances to help facilitate entry to the museum.(bk2) Your team might consider how technology, to include apps such as Affluences, or others could be used to facilitate your evacuation plan.(spm1’)
Only emergency personnel and museum officials know the actual number of total available exit points (service doors, employee entrances, VIP entrances, emergency exits, and old secret entrances built by the monarchy, etc.).(rsc2) While public awareness of these exit points could provide additional strength to an evacuation plan, their use would simultaneously cause security concerns due to the lower or limited security postures at these exits compared with level of security at the four main entrances(pr1). Thus, when creating your model, your team should consider carefully when and how any additional exits might be utilized.(imp2)
Your supervisor wants your ICM team to develop an emergency evacuation model that allows the museum leaders to explore a range of options to evacuate visitors from the museum, while also allowing emergency personnel to enter the building as quickly as possible.(spm1’’) It is important to identify potential bottlenecks that may limit movement towards the exits.(imp3) The museum emergency planners are especially interested in an adaptable model that can be designed to address a broad set of considerations and various types of potential threats.(imp4) Each threat has the potential to alter or remove segments of possible routes to safety that may be essential in a single optimized route.(imp4’) Once developed, validate your model(s) and discuss how the Louvre would implement it.
Based on the results of your work, propose policy and procedural recommendations for emergency management of the Louvre. Include any applicable crowd management and control procedures that your team believes are necessary for the safety of the visitors.(mss1) Additionally, discuss how you could adapt and implement your model(s) for other large, crowded structures.(imp5)
Your submission should consist of:
One-page Summary Sheet,
Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary. Judges expect a complete list of references with in-text citations, but may not consider
appendices in the judging process.
Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.
References:
[1] Reporters, Telegraph. “Terror Attacks in France: From Toulouse to the Louvre.” The Telegraph, Telegraph Media Group, 24 June 2018, www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/terror-attacks-france-toulouse-louvre/.
[2] “8.1 Million Visitors to the Louvre in 2017.” Louvre Press Release, 25 Jan. 2018, presse.louvre.fr/8-1-million-visitors-to-the-louvre-in-2017/.
[3] “Interactive Floor Plans.” Louvre - Interactive Floor Plans | Louvre Museum | Paris,
30 June 2016, www.louvre.fr/en/plan.
[4] “Pyramid” Project Launch – The Musée du Louvre is improving visitor reception (2014-2016).” Louvre Press Kit, 18 Sept. 2014, www.louvre.fr/sites/default/files/dp_pyramide%2028102014_en.pdf.
[5] “The 'Pyramid’ Project - Improving Visitor Reception (2014-2016).” Louvre Press Release, 6 July 2016, presse.louvre.fr/the-pyramid-project/.
Glossary:
Bottlenecks – places where movement is dramatically slowed or even stopped.
Emergency personnel – people who help in an emergency, such as guards, fire fighters, medics, ambulance crews, doctors, and police.
Analysis
ICM近几年的题目往往比较冗长，读之乏味，有点像文科题目，今年看起来有点好转，毕竟是数学建模问题嘛，还是要有点数学模型的样子。
标题告诉我们是卢浮宫逃生问题，看起来又是一个类似房间内逃生的仿真加规划问题，在美赛久远的历史上也有过类似的题目。今年的题目还真的挺念旧的。
第一段已经有一定信息量了，介绍我们要做紧急撤离计划，这是一个规划类问题，且暗示了目标两个：quickly and safely。
第二段介绍卢浮宫的一些参数信息，一定要使用，参观者数量影响一般移动和救援的难度是个参数，记得做灵敏度分析；人群的异质性也必须在建模的公式里予以体现。
第三段提到了更多卢浮宫信息要使用，这边提到了Affluences作为进入博物馆时间预测的工具，那么这里也在桉树我们也要在模型中，对人流撤退随时间的变化进行建模和预测，这便是我们的第一个模型了。
第四段提到有多个隐藏出口由于安全原因不能使用，那么这里我们需要给出量化的安全指标，并且在目标是快和安全的基础上去使用这些出口来使得整体的逃生水平最高。
第五段再次提到我们要建立的逃生策略模型，需要有选项，同时就像收费站问题一样，如果造成拥挤会导致更严重的后果，造成秩序混乱则更无法逃生。adaptable model的意思是对于不同的人流量，来源等等我们都能够有应对措施，鲁棒性要足够好，使得模型在任何情况下都能够生效。再次提到了安全和速度是两个基本目标，甚至安全可以作为限定条件处理。
第六段说的policy and procedural是模型建立好了措施模型以及预测了措施下的救援效果以后得到的结论，要以这种方式表达出来作为人物产出。注意目的仍然只有两个，安全和迅速。
本题模型两个重点，一个是人员疏散模型，另外是疏散策略对疏散效果的影响，最后优化得到最佳的安全和速度效果下的策略为何，并且在不同的条件参数下（人流量等）都能够有很强的鲁棒性就好了。
本题在ICM中还算有章可循的，加油！
Problem E: What is the Cost of Environmental Degradation?(bk1)
Economic theory often disregards the impact of its decisions on the biosphere or assumes unlimited resources or capacity for its needs.(bk1) There is a flaw in this viewpoint, and the environment is now facing the consequences.(pr1) The biosphere provides many natural processes to maintain a healthy and sustainable environment for human life, which are known as ecosystem services.(bk2) Examples include turning waste into food, water filtration, growing food, pollinating plants, and converting carbon dioxide into oxygen.(bk2’) However, whenever humans alter the ecosystem, we potentially limit or remove ecosystem services.(pr2) The impact of local small-scale changes in land use, such as building a few roads, sewers, bridges, houses, or factories may seem negligible.(bk3) Add to these small projects, large-scale projects such as building or relocating a large corporate headquarters, building a pipeline across the country, or expanding or altering waterways for extended commercial use.(bk3’) Now think about the impact of many of these projects across a region, country, and the world.(pr2’) While individually these activities may seem inconsequential to the total ability of the biosphere’s functioning potential, cumulatively they are directly impacting the biodiversity and causing environmental degradation.(bk3’’)
Traditionally, most land use projects do not consider the impact of, or account for changes to, ecosystem services.(bk3’’’) The economic costs to mitigate negative results of land use changes: polluted rivers, poor air quality, hazardous waste sites, poorly treated waste water, climate changes, etc., are often not included in the plan.(pr3) Is it possible to put a value on the environmental cost of land use development projects?(spm1) How would environmental degradation be accounted for in these project costs?(imp1) Once ecosystem services are accounted for in the cost-benefit ratio of a project, then the true and comprehensive valuation of the project can be determined and assessed.(spm1’)
Your ICM team has been hired to create an ecological services valuation model to understand the true economic costs of land use projects when ecosystem services are considered.(spm1’’) Use your model to perform a cost benefit analysis of land use development projects of varying sizes, from small community-based projects to large national projects.(imp2) Evaluate the effectiveness of your model based on your analyses and model design.(spm1’’’) What are the implications of your modeling on land use project planners and managers? How might your model need to change over time?(spm1’4)
Your submission should consist of:
One-page Summary Sheet,
Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 21 pages with your summary. Judges expect a complete list of references with in-text citations, but may not consider
appendices in the judging process.
Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 21-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.
References:
Chee, Y., 2004. An ecological perspective on the valuation of ecosystem services.
Biological Conservation 120, 549-565.
Costanza, R., d’Arge, R., de Groot, R., Farber, S., Grasso, M., Hannon, B., Limburg, K., Naeem, S., O’Neill, R.V., Paruelo, J., Raskin, R.G., Sutton, P., van den Belt, M., 1997. The value of the world’s ecosystem services and natural capital. Nature 387, 253– 260.
Gómez-Baggethuna, E., de Groot, R., Lomas, P., Montesa, C., 1 April 2010. The history of ecosystem services in economic theory and practice: From early notions to markets and payment schemes. Ecological Economics 69 (6), 1209-1218.
Norgaard, R., 1 April 2010. Ecosystem services: From eye-opening metaphor to complexity blinder. Ecological Economics 69 (6), 1219-1227.
Richmond, A., Kaufmann R., Myneni, R., 2007, Valuing ecosystem services: A shadow price for net primary production. Ecological Economics 64, 454-462.
Yang, Q., Liu, G., Casazza, M., Campbell, E., Giannettia, B., Brown, M., December 2018. Development of a new framework for non-monetary accounting on ecosystem services valuation. Ecosystem Services 34A, 37-54.
Data sources:
US based data: https://www.data.gov/ecosystems/
Satellite data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/satellite-data/satellite-data-access-datasets
Glossary:
Biodiversity - refers to the variety of life in an ecosystem; all of the living organisms within a given area.
Biosphere - the part of the Earth that is occupied by living organisms and generally includes the interaction between these organisms and their physical environment.
Ecosystem - a subset of the biosphere that primarily focuses on the interaction between living things and their physical environment.
Ecosystem Services – the many benefits and assets that humans receive freely from our natural environment and a fully functioning ecosystem.
Environmental Degradation – the deterioration or compromise of the natural environment through consumption of assets either by natural processes or human activities.
Mitigate – to make less severe, painful, or impactful.
Valuation - refers to the estimating or determining the current worth of something.
Analysis：
嗯嗯，解析ICM的题目越来越像做GRE阅读了，理清楚行文的内在逻辑，审题就游刃有余了。
第一段都是topic段落，主要提到的background就是经济发展不考虑环境问题导致了严重的后果，无论是大的方面还是小的方面都是如此，我们到了不得不考虑经济和环境和谐发展的时候。实在没什么干货。
第二段顺着这个背景隐约提到了我们需要构建的模型以及一些暗示要求，即我们需要一个评价模型，来评价environmental cost of land use development projects，并且特地强调了二者的融合问题。
后面一段不断强调了这个模型的对于二者融合评估的重要性，并且提示要在不同的条件下作分析，即灵敏度分析不能忘，最后希望简单就这个评价模型的结果来作一个优化决策应该如何使得评价结果最优，若推演到时间轴上，是否参数和模型需要跟着改变，这些是模型的时间上的稳定性分析。
既然是文科类的评价模型，那就自圆其说就行，另外提到的用这个模型来进行辅助优化决策以及时序上的变化是两个重点和亮点，一定不要忽视！
好像没有提到要些report或者memo给当局，但是建议把所有的回答题目的结论用poster等形式集中展现出来，体现工作的实用性，也上评委一目了然。
这是一个十分开放自圆其说的评价加少量优化和预测的题目，还算全面和简单，大家加油！
Problem F: Universal, Decentralized, Digital Currency: Is it possible?
Digital currency can be used like traditional currencies to buy and sell goods, except that it is digital and has no physical representation.(bk1) Digital currency enables its users to make transactions instantaneously and without any concern for national borders.(bk1’) Cryptocurrency is a subset of digital currency with unique features of privacy, decentralization, security and encryption.(bk2) Cryptocurrencies have exploded in popularity in various parts of the world; moving from an underground cult interest to a globally accepted phenomenon.(bk2) Bitcoin and Ethereum, both cryptocurrencies, have grown in value, while investors are projecting rapid growth for other cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin or Ripple.(bk2’’) In addition to digital and cryptocurrencies, there are also new digital methods for financial transactions that enable users to instantaneously exchange money with nothing more than an email address or a thumbprint.(bk2’’’) Peer-to-peer payment systems offered by companies like PayPal, Stripe, Venmo, Zelle, Apple Pay, Square Cash, and Google Pay offer virtual movement of money across the globe in seconds without ever having to verify the transaction through a bank or currency exchange.(bk2’4) Digital transactions outpace cash and check transactions because they are not delayed by banking policies, national borders, citizenship, debts, or other social-economic factors. These new currency systems decentralize financial transactions, leaving many to consider a world where traditional banking may become obsolete.(bk2’5)
Concerns about security of cryptocurrencies worry both citizens and economic analysts.(pr1) These concerns have constrained its growth in some communities.(pr1’) On the other hand, much of the popularity of cryptocurrency is due to its departure from traditional overly-restrictive security and debt measures that rely on oversight by large banks and governments. These oversight institutions are often expensive, deeply bureaucratic, and sometimes corrupt.(pr1’’) Some experts believe that a universal, decentralized, digital currency with internal security like blockchain can make markets more efficient by eliminating barriers to the flow of money. This is particularly important in countries where the majority of citizens do not have bank accounts and are unable to invest in regional or global financial markets. Some governments, however, view the lack of regulation around these currencies and their anonymity as too risky because of how easily they can be used in illicit transactions, such as tax sheltering or purchasing illegal merchandise.(pr1’’’) Others feel that a secure digital currency offers a more convenient and safer form of financial exchange. For instance, a universally accepted currency would enable truly global financial markets and would protect individual assets against regional inflation fluctuations and artificial manipulation of currency by regional governments.(bk3) If alternative digital systems become more established, there will be many questions about how digital currency will affect current banking systems and nation-based currencies.(bk4)
Your policy modeling team has been employed by the International Currency Marketing (ICM) Alliance to help them identify the viability and effects of a global decentralized digital financial market. ICM Alliance has asked you to construct a model that adequately represents this type of financial system, being sure to identify key factors that would limit or facilitate its growth, access, security, and stability at both the individual, national, and global levels.(spm1) This requires you to consider the different needs of countries and their willingness to work with this new financial marketplace and modify their current banking and monetary models.(imp1) It may or may not require them to abandon their own currency, so that adds a level of complexity to the market model.(imp2) You are not to choose an existing digital currency, but discuss the strategies for adoption, and problems in implementation of, a general digital currency.(spm1’) You should also include the mechanisms for oversight of such a global digital currency. The ICM Alliance has asked you to extend your analysis to consider the long-term effects of such a system on the current banking industry; the local, regional, and world economy; and international relations between countries.(imp3)
ICM requests a report of your modeling and analysis, and a separate one-page policy recommendation for national leaders, who hold mixed opinions about this effort.(mss1) The policy recommendation should offer rationale for the parameters and dynamics included in your model and reflect the insights you gained from your modeling. Your polices might address, for example, growth, reach, access, security, and stability of the system.
Your team’s submission should consist of:
One-page Summary Sheet,
One-page policy recommendation for national leaders,
Your solution of no more than 20 pages, for a maximum of 22 pages with your summary
and policy recommendation.
Judges expect a complete list of references with in-text citations, but may not consider
appendices in the judging process.
Note: Reference list and any appendices do not count toward the 22-page limit and should appear after your completed solution.
References:
Paul Krugman, “O Canada: A neglected nation gets its Nobel”. Slate, Oct 19, 1999. https://slate.com/business/1999/10/o-canada.html
Stephanie Lo and J. Christina Wang, “Bitcoin as Money?” Current Policy Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 2014. https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/current-policy-perspectives/2014/bitcoin-as-money.aspx or https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/Workingpapers/PDF/cpp1404.pdf
Glossary:
Anonymity – the state of being unnamed or unidentified; the state of being anonymous.
Blockchain – the record keeping technology that can document transactions between two parties in a verifiable and permanent way; a digital database containing information that can be shared and simultaneously used across a large publicly accessible and decentralized network.
Cryptocurrency – a digital or virtual currency that uses cryptography (protecting information through the use of codes) for security.
Digital Currency – [digital money, electronic money, electronic currency] is a type of currency in digital (electronic) versus physical (coins, paper) form.
Illicit – illegal or dishonest.
Fluctuations – variations or oscillations; rises and falls. .
Monetary – relating to money or finances, or to the mechanisms by which money is supplied to and circulates in the economy.
Nation-based currencies – [national currencies] a system of money issued by a central bank and in common use within a particular nation or group of nations; examples are United States dollar (USD), Chinese renminbi (RMB or CNY), European Euro (EUR), British pound sterling (GBP), and Japanese yen (JPY).
Underground cult – hidden or mysterious group of people sharing an excessive devotion toward a particular person, belief, or thing.
Analysis
终于到最后一道ICM题了，居然都不像前两年那样流水账一样长而且废话连篇了，良心啊！
还真敢出时下最热门的数字货币问题！
不过作为文科类试题，无非套路就是主观的融合评价，和利用评价公式来辅助决策，在时空上的变化和广泛适用性，以及各个条件的灵敏度分析，E题和本题如出一辙啊！
第一段同样没什么干货，说明了下现在数字货币发展很火，但是也面临着很多问题等待解决，标准的background加problem的问题开头。
忍不了了，第二段还在啰嗦这件事，最后一个however转折得到还是由于缺乏监管，我们需要找一套办法来判别这个市场的优劣，进而引出真正要的模型。
第三段提到我们的模型，注意这里有结合重要的暗示。 identify the viability and effects of a global decentralized digital financial market基本说明就是个评价问题了。其中评价的重要因素也有列举，也可以补充：growth, access, security, and stability at both the individual, national, and global levels。另外后面两句话提到了不同国家的意愿以及放弃原来体系导致的复杂性在评价模型中都要有所体现。并要求应用在具体的案例中，以及忽视的问题评估还有随时间变化的长期因素评估。
最后要求的report和 policy recomendation一定要把前面考虑的评估模型中的对象，因素，融合方式，导致的策略，施行困难，适用性，时间变化等影响全部分析到位，尤其是给定模型参数的合理性，另外policy部分注意growth, reach, access, security, and stability of the system，这也是评价模型必须要满足题意的点。
这题可以评说的不多，审题相对简单，ICM一如既往发挥空间很大，要体现实力表面功夫要做足，反而对数学要求不高了。所以，对背景熟悉和感兴趣就做这题也不错咯！
好了，今年的分析到此结束，明年见！
好了，今天的数学魔术分享就到这里，希望各位客官能够喜欢！这里是MatheMagician，有你要的奇迹！
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