2011年01月28日 07:20 AM

分析：金价今年将见顶？

Gold investors pull back after blistering rally

英国《金融时报》 杰克•福尔奇

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At times in the past decade, gold has looked like a one-way bet. The price of the yellow metal has risen every year since 2001, averaging a cool 18 per cent annual gain.	过去10年，投资黄金有时就像是一种只赚不赔的买卖。自2001年以来，金价每年都在上涨，年均涨幅达到可观的18%。
This year, however, the status quo is being challenged. Bank analysts, ordinarily a bullish crowd, are tempering their calls for record prices with a note of caution: 2011, according to an emerging consensus, may be the year when bullion prices peak.	然而今年，这种情况正受到挑战。通常属于黄金看涨派的银行分析师，在预言金价将升至创纪录水平的同时也发出警告称，根据最新形成的共识，2011年可能会成为金价见顶的一年。
That expectation is based on the view that the economic recovery in the US will start to gather steam, forcing the Federal Reserve to tighten policy and making yields on bonds and equities more attractive.	这一预期基于如下观点，即美国经济复苏的势头将开始增强，这会迫使美联储(Fed)收紧货币政策，让债券和股票的收益率变得更具吸引力。
“As the economy improves you’re going to see real interest rates move up, and that’s going to cap the upside for the gold price,” says David Greely, an analyst at Goldman Sachs in New York. “We think it is prudent for gold investors to begin to prepare for gold prices to peak.”	“随着经济逐步改善，实际利率将会上升，这将限制金价的涨势，”高盛(Goldman Sachs)驻纽约分析师戴维•格里利(David Greely)表示，“我们认为，对于黄金投资者而言，谨慎的做法是开始为金价见顶做好准备。”
Many analysts see the change in market sentiment since the start of January as a glimpse of what the future may hold for the gold market. As investors have become increasingly confident about the economic outlook in the US and less worried about the eurozone’s fiscal problems, money has been flowing into equities and bond yields are rising.	很多分析师将1月初以来市场情绪的变化，视为黄金市场前景的预兆。由于投资者对美国经济前景越来越有信心，对欧元区财政问题的担忧也有所减轻，因此资金已流入股市，债券收益率也在上升。
Gold, a traditional “safe haven” against economic uncertainty, has suffered. The exuberance that characterised the market throughout the second half of 2010, founded on fears of a double-dip recession, has dissipated. Some investors have started to take profits.	黄金这一防范经济不确定性的传统避险工具已因此受到拖累。贯穿2010年下半年、建立在担心双底衰退基础上的火爆行情已经消退。一些投资者已开始获利了结。
Prices, which rallied 30 per cent last year to hit an all-time nominal peak of $1,430.95 a troy ounce in mid-December, have fallen 7.5 per cent since then to a three-month low of $1,322.70 this week.	去年，金价上涨了30%，12月中旬曾创下每盎司1430.95美元的纪录名义峰值，但自那之后累计下跌了7.5%，本周已跌至每盎司1322.70美元的3个月低点。
Bankers say the drop reflects a move by short-term traders to take profits rather than a retreat en masse by investors. Indeed, almost all traders and analysts believe the yellow metal will hit new records this year, with forecasts for the high ranging from $1,550 to $1,850, according to a survey by the London Bullion Market Association.	银行人士表示，金价下跌所反映的是短线交易员获利了结的行为，而非投资者大举撤退。实际上，几乎所有交易员和分析师都认为，金价今年将创下新的纪录。根据伦敦金银市场协会(London Bullion Market Association)的一份调查，受访者对金价新高点的预测从每盎司1550美元至每盎司1850美元不等。
Even so, many are starting to warn of an end to ever-higher gold prices. As well as Goldman Sachs, others including UBS, Credit Suisse, Barclays Capital, Macquarie and the precious metals consultancy GFMS expect gold prices to peak late this year or early 2012.	尽管如此，仍有很多人发出警告，称金价一再上涨的阶段已经结束。除高盛之外，包括瑞银(UBS)、瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)、巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)、麦格理(Macquarie)和贵金属咨询公司GFMS在内的其它机构也都预测，金价将在今年末或明年初见顶。
“We’re going to get to a situation in the second half of this year where the emphasis on what drives this market will have shifted and the impetus from ultra-low US rates will have fallen away,” says Tom Kendall, a precious metals analyst at Credit Suisse.	瑞士信贷贵金属分析师汤姆•肯德尔(Tom Kendall)表示：“今年下半年我们将看到这样一种情况：人们调整了所关注的市场驱动因素，美国超低利率对金价的刺激逐渐消失。”
Investors have begun to heed the warnings. Speculative bets on a lower gold price in the US futures market last week rose to their highest level since mid-2005, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Overall, investors are still positive – but their positioning is the least bullish since July 2009.	投资者已开始注意到这些警告。美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)称，美国期货市场上押注金价走低的投机性头寸的数量上周升至2005年年中以来的最高水平。整体而言，投资者仍看涨金价，但他们的头寸配置状况反映出，他们的看涨程度是2009年7月以来最低的。
Those who invested in gold exchange-traded funds, which have attracted huge inflows in the past five years and helped to drive the gold price higher, have also scaled back their exposure. The largest such fund, SPDR Gold Shares, suffered the largest outflow in its six-year history on Tuesday, sending its holdings to the lowest since May.	那些投资于黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）的投资者也已相应减仓。过去5年，黄金ETF吸引到了海量的资金流入，对推高金价起到了一定作用。规模最大的此类基金——SPDR Gold Shares周二遭遇其6年历史上的最大规模的资金流出，令其黄金持有量降至去年5月以来的最低水平。
At the same time, says Mr Greely of Goldman Sachs, investors have started to protect themselves against a fall in gold prices by buying put options that limit their losses if the market suffers a correction. Mr Kendall adds that “one or two” hedge funds have “started to think about long-term exit strategies”.	高盛的格里利表示，投资者此时已着手保护自己免受金价下跌的冲击，做法是购买看跌期权，这样在市场出现回调时就可限制自己的亏损。肯德尔补充称，“一两家”对冲基金已“开始考虑长期退出策略”。
“The first sell-off could be sharp,” says Mr Greely, “but we don’t think it will be as dramatic as what you saw in the late 1970s and early 1980s.”	“最初的抛售可能会比较剧烈，”格里利表示，“但我们认为，剧烈程度不会像上世纪70年代末、80年代初那样大。”
Few strategists are recommending going short on gold. Demand from Asia has rocketed in the first weeks of the new year amid sharply rising inflation in the region. Also, central banks have stopped selling gold from their reserves and have instead become significant buyers.	几乎没有策略师现在推荐做空黄金。由于亚洲的通胀显著加剧，新年的第一周，来自该地区的黄金需求大幅上升。此外，各国央行已停止出售黄金储备，转而成为黄金的重要买家。
Beyond that, some investors believe the US will face high inflation in the longer run, arguing that the Fed will fail to manage successfully the unwinding of its “quantitative easing” programme. With inflation high, real interest rates would be low even if nominal rates were raised. In such a scenario, investors could well keep putting money into gold.	此外一些投资者认为，较长期而言，美国将面临高通胀。他们辩称，美联储将无法成功退出其“定量宽松”政策。由于通胀高企，因此即便名义利率上调，实际利率也仍将处于低位。在这种情况下，投资者很有可能会继续将资金投入黄金。
Equally, says Philip Klapwijk of GFMS, the rally could be extended if the eurozone sovereign debt crisis were to spread. Some believe indebted US states could be the trigger for renewed financial turmoil.	GFMS的菲利普•克拉普维伊克(Philip Klapwijk)表示，同样，如果欧元区主权债务危机范围扩大，金价上涨趋势可能会持续下去。一些人认为，债台高筑的美国各州可能会引发新的金融动荡。
“The market is starting to believe that the global economy can easily wean itself off of cheap money,” says Daniel Brebner of Deutsche Bank. “We are not so confident that this is the case.”	“市场开始认为，全球经济能够轻松戒除对廉价资金的依赖，”德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的丹尼尔•布雷布纳(Daniel Brebner)表示，“我们并不完全认同这个观点。”
Gold’s rally has been characterised by the emergence of new and unexpected risks to economic stability. Shock potential remains.	迄今这波黄金涨势的根本原因，是经济中屡屡出现新的、出人意料的、破坏稳定的风险。有可能引发动荡的因素目前依然存在。