《2020年世界能源展望》表明，应对Covid危机可以重塑能源的未来
It has been a tumultuous year for the global energy system. The Covid-19 crisis has caused more disruption than any other event in recent history, leaving scars that will last for years to come. But whether this upheaval ultimately helps or hinders efforts to accelerate clean energy transitions and reach international energy and climate goals will depend on how governments respond to today’s challenges.
对全球能源体系来说，这是动荡的一年。新冠肺炎危机造成的破坏比近代史上任何其他事件都要大，留下的伤痕将持续多年。但是，这种剧变最终是有助于还是阻碍了加速清洁能源转型和实现国际能源与气候目标的努力，将取决于各国政府如何应对当今的挑战。
The World Energy Outlook 2020, the International Energy Agency’s flagship publication, focuses on the pivotal period of the next 10 years, exploring different pathways out of the crisis. The new report provides the latest IEA analysis of the pandemic’s impact: global energy demand is set to drop by 5% in 2020, energy-related CO2 emissions by 7%, and energy investment by 18%. The WEO’s established approach – comparing different scenarios that show how the energy sector could develop – is more valuable than ever in these uncertain times. The four pathways presented in this WEO are described in more detail at the end of this press release.
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)的旗舰出版物《2020年世界能源展望》(World Energy Outlook 2020)聚焦于未来10年的关键时期，探索走出危机的不同途径。这份新报告提供了国际能源署对这一流行病影响的最新分析：2020年，全球能源需求将下降5%，与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量将下降7%，能源投资将下降18%。《世界经济展望》已确立的方法——通过比较不同情景来说明能源行业可能如何发展——在当前不确定时期比以往任何时候都更有价值。本世界经济展望中提出的四种途径在本新闻稿的最后有更详细的描述。
In the Stated Policies Scenario, which reflects today’s announced policy intentions and targets, global energy demand rebounds to its pre-crisis level in early 2023. However, this does not happen until 2025 in the event of a prolonged pandemic and deeper slump, as shown in the Delayed Recovery Scenario. Slower demand growth lowers the outlook for oil and gas prices compared with pre-crisis trends. But large falls in investment increase the risk of future market volatility.
根据上述政策情景(反映了今天宣布的政策意图和目标)，全球能源需求将在2023年初反弹至危机前的水平。然而，如延迟复苏情景所示，如果出现大流行病和更深的衰退，这种情况要到2025年才会发生。与危机前的趋势相比，需求增长放缓降低了油气价格的前景。但投资的大幅下降增加了未来市场波动的风险。
Renewables take starring roles in all our scenarios, with solar centre stage. Supportive policies and maturing technologies are enabling very cheap access to capital in leading markets. Solar PV is now consistently cheaper than new coal- or gas-fired power plants in most countries, and solar projects now offer some of the lowest cost electricity ever seen. In the Stated Policies Scenario, renewables meet 80% of global electricity demand growth over the next decade. Hydropower remains the largest renewable source, but solar is the main source of growth, followed by onshore and offshore wind.
可再生能源在我们所有的场景中都扮演着重要的角色，太阳能是舞台的中心。支持性政策和成熟的技术使人们能够以非常低的成本在主要市场获得资金。在大多数国家，太阳能光伏发电的成本一直低于燃煤或燃气发电厂，而太阳能发电项目的成本也达到了有史以来的最低水平。按照上述政策，可再生能源将满足未来10年全球电力需求增长的80%。水电仍然是最大的可再生能源，但太阳能是主要的增长来源，其次是陆地和海上风能。
“I see solar becoming the new king of the world’s electricity markets. Based on today’s policy settings, it is on track to set new records for deployment every year after 2022,” said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA Executive Director. “If governments and investors step up their clean energy efforts in line with our Sustainable Development Scenario, the growth of both solar and wind would be even more spectacular – and hugely encouraging for overcoming the world’s climate challenge.”
“我认为太阳能将成为世界电力市场的新霸主。根据目前的政策设置，2022年以后每年的能源配置都将创下新纪录，”国际能源署执行干事Fatih Birol 博士表示。“如果各国政府和投资者按照我们的可持续发展设想，加大他们在清洁能源方面的努力，太阳能和风能的增长将更加惊人——这将极大地鼓舞人们克服全球气候挑战。”
The WEO-2020 shows that strong growth of renewables needs to be paired with robust investment in electricity grids. Without enough investment, grids will prove to be a weak link in the transformation of the power sector, with implications for the reliability and security of electricity supply.
《世界经济展望-2020》表明，可再生能源的强劲增长需要与电网的强劲投资同时进行。如果投资不足，电网将成为电力转型中的薄弱环节，影响电力供应的可靠性和安全性。
Fossil fuels face varying challenges. Coal demand does not return to pre-crisis levels in the Stated Policies Scenario, with its share in the 2040 energy mix falling below 20% for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. But demand for natural gas grows significantly, mainly in Asia, while oil remains vulnerable to the major economic uncertainties resulting from the pandemic.
化石燃料面临着各种各样的挑战。按照既定政策设想，煤炭需求不会恢复到危机前的水平，煤炭在2040年能源结构中的比重将自工业革命以来首次降至20%以下。但对天然气的需求显著增长，主要是在亚洲，而石油仍然容易受到疫情造成的重大经济不确定性的影响。
“The era of global oil demand growth will come to an end in the next decade,” Dr Birol said. “But without a large shift in government policies, there is no sign of a rapid decline. Based on today’s policy settings, a global economic rebound would soon push oil demand back to pre-crisis levels.”
Birol 表示:“未来10年，全球石油需求增长的时代将结束。”“但如果政府政策没有大的转变，就没有快速下降的迹象。根据目前的政策设置，全球经济反弹将很快将石油需求推回到危机前的水平。”
The worst effects of the crisis are felt among the most vulnerable. The pandemic has reversed several years of declines in the number of people in Sub-Saharan Africa without access to electricity. And a rise in poverty levels may have made basic electricity services unaffordable for more than 100 million people worldwide who had electricity connections.
最脆弱的群体感受到了危机最严重的影响。这一流行病扭转了撒哈拉以南非洲地区数年来无法获得电力的人数下降的趋势。贫困水平的上升可能使世界上有超过1亿人无法负担基本电力服务。
Global emissions are set to bounce back more slowly than after the financial crisis of 2008-2009, but the world is still a long way from a sustainable recovery. A step-change in clean energy investment offers a way to boost economic growth, create jobs and reduce emissions. This approach has not yet featured prominently in plans proposed to date, except in the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Korea, New Zealand and a handful of other countries.
与2008-2009年的金融危机相比，全球排放量的反弹将更加缓慢，但世界距离可持续复苏仍有很长的路要走。清洁能源投资的逐步转变为促进经济增长、创造就业和减少排放提供了一条途径。除了在欧洲联盟、联合王国、加拿大、韩国、新西兰和少数其他国家之外，这一方法尚未在迄今提出的计划中占有显著地位。
In the Sustainable Development Scenario, which shows how to put the world on track to achieving sustainable energy objectives in full, the complete implementation of the IEA Sustainable Recovery Plan moves the global energy economy onto a different post-crisis path. As well as rapid growth of solar, wind and energy efficiency technologies, the next 10 years would see a major scaling up of hydrogen and carbon capture, utilisation and storage, and new momentum behind nuclear power.
在可持续发展的情景下，国际能源署可持续复苏计划的全面实施将使全球能源经济走上一条不同的后危机道路。这一情景展示了如何让世界走上全面实现可持续能源目标的轨道。除了太阳能、风能和能源效率技术的快速发展，未来10年将见证氢和碳捕获、利用和存储技术的大规模发展，以及核能发展的新势头。
“Despite a record drop in global emissions this year, the world is far from doing enough to put them into decisive decline. The economic downturn has temporarily suppressed emissions, but low economic growth is not a low-emissions strategy – it is a strategy that would only serve to further impoverish the world’s most vulnerable populations,” said Dr Birol. “Only faster structural changes to the way we produce and consume energy can break the emissions trend for good. Governments have the capacity and the responsibility to take decisive actions to accelerate clean energy transitions and put the world on a path to reaching our climate goals, including net-zero emissions.”
他说:“尽管今年全球排放量出现了创纪录的下降，但世界还远远没有采取足够的措施来实现决定性的下降。经济低迷暂时抑制了排放，但低经济增长不是低排放战略——这一战略只会进一步加剧世界上最脆弱人口的贫困，”比罗尔博士说。“只有对我们生产和消费能源的方式进行更快的结构调整，才能永远打破排放的趋势。”各国政府有能力也有责任采取果断行动，加快清洁能源转型，让世界走上实现我们的气候目标的道路，包括实现零排放。”
A significant part of those efforts would have to focus on reducing emissions from existing energy infrastructure – such as coal plants, steel mills and cement factories. Otherwise, international climate goals will be pushed out of reach, regardless of actions in other areas. Detailed new analysis in the WEO-2020 shows that if today’s energy infrastructure continues to operate in the same way as it has done so far, it would already lock in a temperature rise of 1.65 °C.
这些努力的很大一部分必须集中在减少现有能源基础设施的排放上，比如燃煤电厂、钢铁厂和水泥厂。否则，无论在其他领域采取何种行动，国际气候目标都将无法实现。《世界能源展望-2020》详细的新分析显示，如果今天的能源基础设施继续以目前的方式运行，那么气温上升将锁定在1.65℃。
Despite such major challenges, the vision of a net-zero emissions world is increasingly coming into focus. The ambitious pathway mapped out in the Sustainable Development Scenario relies on countries and companies hitting their announced net-zero emissions targets on time and in full, bringing the entire world to net zero by 2070.
尽管面临着这些重大挑战，一个净零排放世界的愿景正日益成为人们关注的焦点。《可持续发展方案》中规划的这一雄心勃勃的路径，取决于各国和企业能否按时、全面地实现其宣布的净零排放目标，使整个世界在2070年前实现净零排放。
Reaching that point two decades earlier, as in the new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case, would demand a set of dramatic additional actions over the next 10 years. Bringing about a 40% reduction in emissions by 2030 requires, for example, that low-emissions sources provide nearly 75% of global electricity generation in 2030, up from less than 40% in 2019 – and that more than 50% of passenger cars sold worldwide in 2030 are electric, up from 2.5% in 2019. Electrification, innovation, behaviour changes and massive efficiency gains would all play roles. No part of the energy economy could lag behind, as it is unlikely that another would be able to move fast enough to make up the difference.
要在20年前达到这一目标，就像在2050年前达到净零排放的新目标一样，需要在未来10年采取一系列引人注目的额外行动。带来40%的2030年减排要求,例如,低排放来源提供近2030年全球电力的75%,高于2019年的不到40%,50%以上的乘用车销售2030年全世界电力,高于2019年的2.5%。电气化、创新、行为改变和效率大幅提高都将发挥作用。能源经济的任何领域都不可能落后，因为不太可能有其他领域的发展速度足够快来弥补这一差距。
世界经济2020年的不同发展路径
The Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), in which Covid-19 is gradually brought under control in 2021 and the global economy returns to pre-crisis levels the same year. This scenario reflects all of today’s announced policy intentions and targets, insofar as they are backed up by detailed measures for their realisation.
政策设想(步骤)，即在2021年逐步控制Covid-19，全球经济在同一年恢复到危机前的水平。这一情景反映了今天宣布的所有政策意图和目标，只要这些意图和目标得到实现的具体措施的支持。
The Delayed Recovery Scenario (DRS) is designed with the same policy assumptions as in the STEPS, but a prolonged pandemic causes lasting damage to economic prospects. The global economy returns to its pre-crisis size only in 2023, and the pandemic ushers in a decade with the lowest rate of energy demand growth since the 1930s.
“延迟复苏情景”(DRS)的设计依据与上述步骤相同的政策假设，但持续的流行病会对经济前景造成持久的损害。全球经济只有在2023年才能恢复到危机前的规模，而这场大流行带来了自上世纪30年代以来能源需求增长率最低的十年。
In the Sustainable Development Scenario (SDS), a surge in clean energy policies and investment puts the energy system on track to achieve sustainable energy objectives in full, including the Paris Agreement, energy access and air quality goals. The assumptions on public health and the economy are the same as in the STEPS.
在可持续发展情景(SDS)中，清洁能源政策和投资的激增将使能源体系走上正轨，全面实现可持续能源目标，包括《巴黎协定》、能源获取和空气质量目标。对公共卫生和经济的假设与步骤中相同。
The new Net Zero Emissions by 2050 case (NZE2050) extends the SDS analysis. A rising number of countries and companies are targeting net-zero emissions, typically by mid-century. All of these are achieved in the SDS, putting global emissions on track for net zero by 2070. The NZE2050 includes the first detailed IEA modelling of what would be needed in the next ten years to put global CO2 emissions on track for net zero by 2050.
新的2050年净零排放案例(NZE2050)扩展了SDS分析。越来越多的国家和公司正在制定减排目标，特别是到本世纪中叶。所有这些都在可持续发展国家中实现，使全球碳排放有望在2070年达到零净排放。NZE2050包括了国际能源署第一个详细的模型，该模型描述了未来十年需要什么才能使全球二氧化碳排放在2050年达到零排放。
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