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Money for old folk
把钱花在老年人身上
The relationship between ageing and inflation is not as simple as economists assume
老龄化与通胀的关系不像经济学家设想的那么简单
May 9th 2015 | From the print edition of The Economist
译者：老狒狒
WHEN it comes to the economic impact of demography, Japan is the wizened canary in the world's coal mine. It has become older faster than any other big country: its median age went from 34 in 1980 to 46 today, and will continue rising for decades. But it will soon have plenty of greying company, from wealthy countries such as Finland and South Korea to developing giants, including China and Russia. Economists generally agree that the ageing of populations leads to slower growth, because a country's potential output tends to fall as its labour force shrinks. They also expect heavier fiscal burdens, with governments providing for more pensioners from a smaller tax base.
说到人口的经济影响，日本就是这个世界上那只已经干瘪了的煤矿中的金丝雀。该国变老的速度快于任何一个大国：它的中位数年龄已经从1980年的34岁升至现在的46岁，并且将在今后几十年中继续上升。但是，不久她就会有足够的老年朋友，从芬兰和韩国这样的富裕国家到包括中国和俄罗斯在内的发展中巨头。一般来说，经济学家同意人口的老龄化导致增长放慢的观点，因为一国的潜在产出往往会随着劳动力的萎缩而下降。经济学家还预测，老龄化会加重财政负担，因为政府要依靠一个缩小的税基来养活更多的退休之人。
Until recently, though, there had been little research into how demography affects inflation. The Japanese example of persistent deflation over the past two decades was seen as evidence enough that prices fall when countries age and their growth slows. Shinzo Abe, Japan's prime minister, has sought to disprove that, espousing massive monetary easing to get prices rising. With inflation slumping far below the Bank of Japan's 2% target in recent months, it is tempting to conclude that ageing is too powerful a force to overturn. But a new body of research gives advocates of Abenomics a bit of support, at least on the demographic front. It shows that deflation is not the preordained outcome of ageing.
不过，直到最近都很少有针对人口如何影响通胀的研究。日本在过去的20多年中持续通缩的例子被视为价格会在国家老龄化和增长放慢时下降的充分证据。日本首相安倍晋三一直在力图证明这种看法是错误的，实施了大规模的货币宽松行动来推高物价。鉴于最近几个月的通胀远低于日本银行2％的既定目标，这禁不住让人们得出这样一个结论：老龄化是一种强大得无法使之逆转的力量。但是，一系列新的研究给了安倍的拥护者一点支持，至少是在人口这个问题上。这些研究表明，通缩不是老龄化必然的结果。
The problem lies not in identifying the possible links between ageing and prices, but in working out which way they cut. Consider the factors of production. When growth slows businesses rein in investment, so the cost of capital may decline. Yet wages ought to rise when the supply of workers falls. In the realm of fiscal policy, some indebted governments may make painful cuts as pensioners multiply, leading to slow growth and sluggish inflation. But others may opt to monetise their debt, pushing inflation up. (Some suspect this is the ultimate aim of Abenomics.)
问题不在于发现老龄化和物价之间的可能的联系，而在于找出它们走向了哪一方。先来看看生产的因素。当增长放慢时，商业会控制投资。因此，资本成本可能会降低。然而，在工人供应减少时，工资应该是上涨的。在财政政策领域，有些重债国政府可能会因为领退休金之人的成倍增加而痛苦地削减开支，这会导致缓慢的增长和疲软的通胀。但是，也有一些政府可能会倾向于将他们债务货币化，从而推高通胀。（有人怀疑这就是安倍经济学的终极目标。）
How to disentangle these possibilities? In a recent working paper, Mitsuru Katagiri of the Bank of Japan and Hideki Konishi and Kozo Ueda of Waseda University distinguish between the ageing caused by a falling birth rate and that brought on by increased longevity. The main effect of fewer births would be a shrinking tax base; that might prompt the government to embrace inflation to erode its debts and thus stay solvent. But longer lives would cause the ranks of pensioners to swell; their increased political influence, in turn, would augur for tighter monetary policy to prevent inflation eating into savings.
如何摆脱这些可能性呢？在一篇最新的论文中，日本银行的Mitsuru Katagiri和早稻田大学Hideki Konishi及Kozo Ueda划分出两种老龄化，一种是因为生育率下降而导致的老龄化，一种是因为寿命的延长而带来的老龄化。较低出生率的主要影响会是一个日渐萎缩的税基；这可能促使政府全面接受通胀，以低债务，从而保持偿债能力。但是，延长了的寿命会导致退休人群老金人群的大幅增加；反过来，他们日渐增长的政治影响力会预示着收紧的货币政策，以阻止通胀蚕食储蓄。
In the case of Japan the authors estimate that the ageing process has led to deflation of about 0.6 percentage points a year over the past 40 years—a huge cumulative impact. That, they believe, is because the big surprise in Japanese demography has been ever-increasing longevity. Fertility rates are close to the levels projected in 2002, but the government has steadily revised up its estimates of lifespans. It is unexpected longevity, not simply ageing, that has been deflationary in Japan.
在日本这个例子中，作者估计，在过去的40年中，老龄化进程已经导致了每年大约0.6个百分点的通缩——这是一个巨大的累计效应。他们相信，这是因为日本人口的重大惊喜始终就是寿命的不断延长。虽然生育率正在接近于2002年设定的水平，但是政府一直在稳步地调高对于寿命的估算。因此，是意料之外的长寿，而不是简单的老龄化，是通缩一直在日本存在的原因。
What about the impact of ageing on financial assets? Economic theory—“the life-cycle hypothesis”—holds that people smooth their consumption over their lifetimes, going into debt when young, buying assets when their earnings peak and selling them to pay for retirement. That, in theory, should lead to lower asset values as countries enter their dotage, but the empirical record is mixed: house prices often fall, but stocks sometimes rise.
老龄化对于金融资产有什么影响呢？“生命周期假设”经济理论认为，人们会在自己一生中调整他们的消费，即年轻时借债，收入巅峰时购买资产，最后卖出资产用于退休。从理论上来说，这应当会随着国家进入老龄化时代而带来较低的资产价值。但是，以往的纪录混杂不一：房价经常下跌，而股价却时而上涨。
An important variable is whether assets sold by pensioners are domestic or foreign. Derek Anderson, Dennis Botman and Ben Hunt of the International Monetary Fund looked at the decrease in Japan's net savings rate from some 15% of disposable income in the early 1990s to about zero in 2011. What stands out is that many of the liquidated savings had been invested in foreign assets. When Japanese pensioners sold stocks and bonds abroad and repatriated the funds, they fuelled an appreciation in the yen—a consistent problem until 2012. This in turn contributed to deflationary pressure, by lowering the cost of imports. But the researchers also reckon that strong monetary easing combined with a credible commitment to an inflation target would have been sufficient to negate the effect of ageing. In other words, they believe Japan needed Abenomics long before it got it.
一个重要的变量是被退休之人卖出的资产是国内的还是国外的。国际货币基金组织的Derek Anderson、Dennis Botman和Ben Hunt考察了日本的净储蓄率从上世纪90年代早期大约占可支配收入的15％到2011年大约为0的下降。最突出一点是，许多被取出来的储蓄都被投资于外国资产了。当日本的退休人群卖出外国的股票和债券并赎回基金时，他们推动了日元的升值——这是一个一直持续到2012年的问题。反过来，日元升值又通过降低进口成本的方式，加大了通缩的压力。但是，研究者还认为，强力的货币宽松行为和对通缩目标的可信承诺，两者的合力本应足以消化老龄化的影响。也就是说，他们认为，日本之于安倍经济学的需要早在得到它之前很久就存在了。
Greyflation
银发通胀
A recent paper by Mikael Juselius and Elod Takats for the Bank for International Settlements offers a very different take on how ageing affects inflation, suggesting that Japan may not be typical after all. They look at 22 advanced economies from 1955 to 2010. Japan is, after all, not the only country to have experienced deflation. Sure enough, they find a steady correlation between deflation and demography, but just the opposite of what is commonly assumed. A larger share of dependents—both young and old—is associated with higher inflation, whereas having more people of working age is linked to lower inflation. Their explanation, albeit tentative, is straightforward. Countries with more people consuming goods and services than producing them are liable to have excess demand and thus inflationary tendencies. Those with more producers than consumers will, by contrast, have excess supply and a deflationary bias.
由Mikael Juselius和Elod Takats为国际清算银行撰写的一篇最新论文对老龄化如何影响通胀提供了一个完全不一样的观点。这种观点认为，日本可能压根就不是一个典型案例。他们考察了22个发达经济体，时间跨度从1955年到2010年。毕竟，日本并不是唯一一个一直在经历通缩的国家。果不其然，他们发现了通缩和人口之间的一种稳定的关联性，但是这种关联性恰恰是通常所假设的那种关联性的相反。需要依赖的人口——既有年轻人也有老年人——比例的增加同通胀的上升有关，而工作年龄人群的扩大又同通胀的降低有关。他们的解释，虽然初步，却是直接的。消费商品和服务之人多于生产商品和提供服务之人的国家容易存在过度的需求，因而也就存在通胀的趋势。相比之下，生产者多于消费者的国家会存在过度的供给，因而存在通缩的趋势。
That raises the question of why prices in Japan have fallen for so many years, given its rapidly ageing population. There are several potential culprits: the damaged balance-sheets left by the popping of the asset bubble of the 1980s, say, or the hesitant monetary policy before Mr Abe. But if the paper's thesis holds true, an ageing population could yet lead to rising prices in the coming years. As the Bank of Japan seeks to vanquish deflation, demography may turn out to be friend, not foe.
这就提出了为什么日本的物价会在人口快速老龄化的过程中一直跌了这么多年的问题。这里面有多个潜在的罪魁祸首：被上世纪80年代的资产泡沫遗留下来的遭到破坏的资产平衡表，安倍之前犹豫不决的货币政策。但是，如果这篇论文的假设成立的话，那么，一个老龄化的人口仍可能会导致未来的物价上涨。就在日本银行想法消除通缩之际，人口可能最终成为一位朋友，而不是对手。
From the print edition: Finance and economics
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